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If Big Timer didn’t handle the dirt surface in America why will he handle it in the UK?
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Quote: from FlatSeasonLover on 3:01 am on Mar. 24, 2007[br]If Big Timer didn’t handle the dirt surface in America why will he handle it in the UK?
Polytrack is a totally different surface to dirt, and as the horse is proven on firm ground, it shouldn’t be a problem.
Class tells.<br>I wouldn’t get too carried away with those 15 group runs.<br>It is well known that Clive Brittain would run the stable cat in the Derby, if he could only figure out how to keep the saddle on!<br>Winning a race now and again also tells.:)
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Alfie Flits is obviously fancied to run a big race this afternoon.<br>Connections think a great deal of him, have re-routed him here from an easier 12f option, and trainer states "He is a good horse and he is very well".<br>Jamie Spencer has spent the week hopping from one horse to the other, but settled on this ride immediately it became a definite runnner. His wife also tipped it on the morning line.<br>Even Tom Segal says he is confident that the horse won’t mind the drop back in trip.<br>Having said all that, I can see nothing in any of his flat-race form that doesn’t suggest that this 10f will be altogether too sharp for him.<br>Maybe the masterplan is for him to make the pace?<br>I’d still much rather stick with my original suggestion, Gentleman’s Deal, with Blue Bajan to chase him home.:cool:
Reet if anything, the fact that pricewise has tipped it up puts me off Alfie Flits! I missed the antepost value (dispite highlighting it!) so will go for Gentlemans Deal with a saver on Orchard Supreme.
Once again, evidence comes to light that Tom Segal is a TRF lurker! Pity his lemmings that have to take 6/1 though!
<br>Always interesting to observe how careers can diverge – last May over 7F on turf, Cusoon was touched off by Geenwood giving him 1lb in a lady riders event worth £5k.
Now Cusoon is an AW star running in a Group 3 for £100k, whilst Greenwood reappears this afternoon at Kempton in a 0 – 60 worth a staggering £2500.
Funny old game …….
AP
I’m struggling to select anything with confidence in the big races at Lingfield, they look very difficult. I’m going to stick with Blue Bajan, but if it gets tactical, almost anything could win.
Re how the pace can make the difference, using Alfie Flits as a case study. The only time AF has run over 10f was at Sandown on g/f ground, he finished 3rd, carried 9-08, & his time was around 2m10s. When Cusoon broke the Lingfield course record, he carried 9-00, & his time was 2m01.7s.
Now I know this does not compare like-for-like at all, with Sandown being much stiffer, but it gives you an indication of how fast they can go at Lingfield. In a fast race, AF would have to run 9.3+ seconds faster to beat the likes of Cusoon & Blue Bajan. I think it would have been a fair bet to bet against AF being physically capable of going that quick?
Sadly, this all becomes irrelevent when the pace of the race is not very strong. It’s down to who has the best turn of foot & who gets the best run.
This is my Van der Wheil take on the race, rated and priced:
Rated<br>10 Gentleman’s Deal, won 1st of 8 +1.5 lengths, shaken up, ridden clear, readily. Progressive, should go well. Minimum odds required 5/2. Stake 29pts won 4/1, return 145pts
8 Alfie Flits, won 1st of 8 +5 lengths, shaken up to lead, forged clear. No sand experience? Off track 140 days? Draw not favourable? Min odds 100/30. Stake 23pts lost 9/2, -23pts
Result – return 145 – 62 = +83pts
Others:<br>4 Hattan, 3rd of 10 -5 lengths, ridden to challenge, one-paced. Cannot be discounted. Draw not favourable? Odds req 8/1.<br>4 Illustrious Blue, won 1st of 10 +1.75 lengths, ridden to challenge, led, ran on well. Improver and could be dangerous. Draw not favourable? Odds req 8/1<br>3 Blue Bajan<br>2 Grand Passion<br>1 Mighty<br>
(Edited by Formath at 5:43 pm on Mar. 24, 2007)
Quote: from apracing on 12:12 pm on Mar. 24, 2007[br]<br>Always interesting to observe how careers can diverge – last May over 7F on turf, Cusoon was touched off by Geenwood giving him 1lb in a lady riders event worth £5k.
Now Cusoon is an AW star running in a Group 3 for £100k, whilst Greenwood reappears this afternoon at Kempton in a 0 – 60 worth a staggering £2500.
Funny old game …….
AP
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You seem to have found a decent opportunity AP, all the best
You’ve found yerself a cracking jock imo AP – great ride
<br>Well done to Greenwood and his connections
(Edited by empty wallet at 2:33 pm on Mar. 24, 2007)
<br>Trainer told me he was bound to need the run! He seems to have discovered the secret of training winners on Polytrack – can’t be many that break their AW duck at the 30th attempt!
Like I said – funny old game.
AP
Afraid i’d given up on greenwood. nice one!
On the WD front, i’m switching allegance to Cimyla, Nad runs don’t inspire, but GBs’ record on the horse is excellent as are the horses’ AW record. So Messy race, 1. Cimyla 2.Cusoon 3. Blue Bajan 4. GD
Well done to backers of Gentleman’s Deal. I read the comments in the RP at some obscene time this morning and decided it wouldn’t handle the course. Managed to switch from two winners to two losers today. :(
Quote: from thedarkknight on 4:21 pm on Mar. 24, 2007[br]Has Alfie Flits finished yet?
Well done with your 2/9 shot.
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