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I recall reading an article on RTV’s website a couple of years ago where John Magnier was interviewed and was asked about Coolmore’s expenditures on American Pharoah and Justify amounting to tens of millions of dollars. His answer was that “racing empires were built by the American Classic stallion” and that Coolmore will continue to spend large sums because they’re looking for the “next Northern Dancer”.
I think the man knows a thing or two about building racing empires, but perhaps that’s a topic for a separate conversation.
However, on his second point what immediately struck me the most is not what he said but what he didn’t say; he didn’t say that they’re looking for the “next” Sadler’s Wells, or the “next” Galileo, or even the “next” Frankel. But, instead it’s the next Northern Dancer!
If one looks at Northern Dancer’s success as a stallion, it’s totally mind-boggling and outright staggering! His sire line divides into seven different branches (note link below). If another sire would only have just one of these branches, he’d be considered a “super-sire.”
(He was also a very good race horse having won two of the three legs of the American Triple Crown. He won the Kentucky Derby in record time and is still the third fastest behind Monarchos and Secretariat)
Note: the data appears to be up to date, as you will note that Frankel’s stats already include Alpinista’s yesterday’s Arc win…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Dancer_sire_line
Moreover, in the 12th May, 2019 issue of Thoroughbred Racing Commentary feature article the author makes a startling opening argument:
“At the highest levels of international turf racing there’s Northern Dancer – and then there’s everybody else. Tail-male descendants of the legendary sire continue to dominate to the extent that soon only a few other sire lines may effectively exist…”
He backs his argument with data of G1 turf wins by sire line in Europe (UK, Ireland, France, and Germany) and North America (U.S, Canada) between 2009-2018.
The figures show Northern Dancer-line horses winning 579 races (73%) in Europe, 220 races (56%) in North America and 799 (67%) in the two Continents combined. Mr Prospector, with 16 percent, is the only other sire line on an upward trajectory. Hence: Norther Dancer and Mr. Prospector had won 83% collectively. Just staggering! Next is the Hail to Reason-line with only 5%.
My question is, how long will it take to dilute this number?
If Frankel continues on his trajectory Northern Dancer’s numbers will only increase, not decrease!
However, it may take another 20-30 years before we can make any definitive conclusions about Frankel’s superiority as a stallion.
Great to read such quality contributions on here. Reminds me why this is the ONLY racing forum worth being on. I have to say I completely agree with Ian about 1m4f no longer being the premier flat distance, certainly in terms of commercial appeal as a stallion . Look at poor old Golden Horn – I’m sure I read he will predominantly be a NH sire moving forward after struggling with his first couple of crops.
As Tonge said, it took breeders a little time to work out the right formula and I must admit I was really worried when crop 3 performed so poorly (the crop that would have been foaled BEFORE the first Frankel’s hit the track but AFTER the “he doesn’t stamp his stock” feedback). But last year was a game-changer and Jess Samy, who is the absolute authority on all things Frankel and is well worth a follow on Twitter, published his book of mares for 2022 the other day and it’s hard to see Frankel not being a dominant force now for years to come. Coolmore haven’t yet found a replacement for Galileo (unsurprisingly) though St Marks Basilica could well fill that void and Dubawi can surely only have a few more good years in him.
Jac – yes I hope to get to Newmarket again soon and I’ll be sure to reach out when I do. Always great to see you! Hope you are keeping well x
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Truth is that when the next generation judges the horse that had most influence in the early 21st century, I reckon it won’t be Galileo or Frankel but Urban Sea. Her sons are, at worst, decent NH sires; at best world-beating stallions and her daughters have also foaled worthy successors.
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