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Don’t like to argue with EC but if they went too fast in the opening race, should we all be lumping on Buena Vista for next year’s Champion Hurdle? Pipe’s running like drains and still able to force the pace and rally at the finish. To the naked eye, they didn’t look to have gone that hard early but I await someone who has the sectionals putting me right.
Kingscliff and L’Ami
~13/1 and ~11/1 respectively seem big given that the former has an impeccable record at this specialists’ course and the latter is unexposed, young and had an eye-catching prep in the RP Chase.
Neither convince, but more so than the rest
11/2 K<br>11/2 L’A<br>17/2 Bar
Beef or Salom<br>Lord of Illusion<br>Hedgehunter
Any order will do.
Oher placings<br>One Knight F<br>Iris’s Gift F<br>Kingscliff PU
Beef Or Salmon slammed Forget The Past by 15l in the Lexus chase and even though he’s won his two races since then I can’t see how he can turn that form around
Good point.
Now, if only there was some factor in today’s race that would make BoS run a stone below that form….
if you want to back a non-stayer, back WoA. You’d be better off backing Astonville if you want a stayer.
well i’m sitting on a large antepost bet for Celestial Gold at 22/1 and if i’d had enough sense would have laid off at 10’s when i had the chance. Stupid me decides to leave it until the day, at which point every man and his dog is laying M C Pipe’s stable upto the eyeballs.<br>What to do? Hope springs eternal so may as well sit in hope and stick with it!
And if on top of this Beef or Salmon wins i’m giving the game up.:o
did good ground affect bos in 04 in the gold cup? did it affect him when he beat Rathgar? and there’s others i won’t go on
The ground doesn’t worry me at all for BoS. Even the course doesn’t worry me at all. I think he would have a wonderful chance today – as long as the field had about 9 or 10 runners. the big field will be the beating of him – although a 3rd or 4th is definitely on the cards.
well of course he didn’t win or we wouldn’t be having this conversation. we’ll see how he does against your selection EC
EC – BoS has many negatives AND positives. he also has excuses.
he fell in 2003 as a novice – nothing to do with him not liking the course. Kauto Star fell – does that mean he doesn’t like Chelters?
in 2004 and 2005, he was either injured for a long time, or had a troubled prep. Even so, he got 4th place, only around 5L behind Best Mate. Admittedly the ground was soft that day, but if he runs that race today, he’ll win it.
Plus John Francome said the horse doesn’t need soft. After he tipped My Way De Solzen to win the World Hurdle and said the ground wouldn’t be an issue, i’m inclined to believe him.
HOWEVER, he doesn’t go well in big fields, and i’m on 4 horses. the Monk, L’Ami, Ollie Magern and One Knight.
Kingscliff seems to developing into a bit of a stroppy character, definite squiggle material, and I note that he wears a visor today. That may do the trick and if it does he’d be a serious contender but, after being a long term fan of his, I couldn’t have him after that last run I’m afraid.
Of the rest I suspect that Beef or Salmon and War of Attrition are the only two theoretically good enough to win. The Lexus Chase was set up for BOS (small field, soft ground) and I think things may happen too quickly for him today. I’d prefer to row in with WOA on the basis that he seems to be improving for having been upped in trip, has proven class and ability. His one bad run this season needs excusing and it is entirely possible that the stable was under a cloud at the time. Fota Island’s good run on Wednnesday suggested that the stable is in good heart and War of Attrition will do for me.
No suprise however if this turned out to be a strange race with an absurd result!
(Edited by cormack15 at 11:42 am on Mar. 17, 2006)
Im still scratching my head to understand what form WOA has shown that makes him "good enough"
I think Monkers form is certainly ahead.
Hes still a good price and im topping up today
I’ve backed L’Ami & War Of Attrition. Plus, I’ve had a little each-way bet on Lord Of Illusion.
I know L’Ami would prefer softer going but he’s been very consistant this season and the trainer knows what it takes to win this race.
War Of Attrition is an unexposed horse in the field if he stays the trip he has a good chance.
Lord Of Illusion is a good each-way bet in an open race.
I haven’t put much money on so I’m not overly fussed if I haven’t picked the winner. It’s going to be a very interesting race to watch and I must admit I think I’ll be keeping an eye on Iris’s Gift & Beef Or Salmon for the the first part of the race. So much has been written about both of them over the past couple of months.:biggrin:
Yes…and thats my concern about detroit too. As well as the fact that the form of his last run was let down a bit
But lacoudal ran very well…so its not probably not a Pipe scenario
WOA’s 4 length second to Beef or Salmon in the Lexus when he had Forget the Past 11 lengths behind and Hedgehunter 13 lengths adrift, with conditions and the way the race panned out favouring the highly talented BOS, was a totally respectable Gold Cup trial in any year, never mind one as weak as this.
His earlier defeat of Rathgar Beau over 2m4F was top class form and he did take the scalp of Kicking King early in the season although that form should admittedly be taken with a pinch of salt owing to uncertainties over the respective levels of readiness.
My view regarding Monkerhostin is that he regularly finds one too good. I appreciate his level of form is decent but really, to have him at the price he is, you need to be taking a pretty literal interpretation of his proximity to Kicking King. I think KK has been a shadow of the horse he was last year and I think the rating attributed to the King George form is inflated.
That said, Monkerhostin obviously does have a claim in what looks an extremely thin renewal and you’d be encouraged by the fact that his only other attempt at three miles and longer resulted in a win in the Reynoldstown Hurdle. No big surprise if he were to win but looks booked for a minor berth in my opinion.
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