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War of Attrition down to 6/1 in some lists now
Unbelievable. Has there ever been a horse that has achieved so little that has been fav for the GC?
Weak year or not, this seems plain daft…
we have all the information now, between now and tomorrow not a whole lot is gonna change (i hope) i’ve been shouting from the rooftops for months that Beef Or Salmon won’t win but now to my shame i can’t see who’s gonna beat him given a clever ride but feel free to shoot me down like a dog but please spare us the usual arse vomit about running in big fields, good going and bad jumping considering he only fell once over hurdles (his first time out) and once over the big ones (his first gold cup), has run very good on good at this course and distance on this ground
Agreed Grass,
The times indicate either: –
a) We’ve seen some excpetionally fast horse
b) The ground is riding extremely quick
or
c) Soething dodgy re: the returned times.
Can’t believe it’s a or b.
Lee
Of course, he loves big fields, jumps superbly and relishes good going
So we wont repeat those rather marginal factors
i didn’t say he’d win but just try something diff than the same stuff that was posted so many times ec he has won in a big field he has won on good and he has ran very well over this c+d so if that’s reading form then read deeper
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<br> Beef Or Salmon has had 2 respectable runs on good ground, one small field where he was never tested, and once in the GC where he was outpaced.<br> The ground today was g/f, (Novice chasers dont beat standard time 3 seconds on slower, not at Cheltenham), will probably be faster tomorrow, and BoS will struggle to keep tabs on them imo.
I don’t think it’s too difficult to understand what ECs getting at.
The record times for Cheltenham would be substantially lower were the horses who recorded them to run on genuinely quick ground. As it is, they come to the course at their peak in March, when that sort of going is unlikely.
So, the times that are set are done so under less-than-ideal record breaking conditions.
Not querying EC’s excellent post but it’s worth pointing out that faster going = faster times isn’t strictly true or the correlation linear. Very firm going isn’t conducive to record times since horses are loathe to let themselves down on it, and in the case of NH, you have the added problem of horses jumping warily on ‘painful’ ground i.e losing time.
And all you time guru’s, never forget to factor in wind speed and direction when time-compiling.
I well remember the St Leger meeting a couple of years ago when track records were being lowered regularly. Assembled hacks and wiseacres came to the easy, ill-considered conclusion ‘the going must be very firm’ etc etc. I was there: it was good-to-firm, the grass was in the best nick I’d ever seen at Donny and virtually no breeze. The perfect conditions for record breaking. <br>
he has won in a big field
He’s not won a chase in a big field.
And that’s the point – his ability to jump when surrounded by a lot of other horses.
Steve
This is my article for the daily profit tomorrow about the Gold Cup. Sorry its format is a bit sh1tted up but I hope you read it.
<br>The Gold Cup – 26.5f Good
Morning Favourite: Beef or Salmon
Fate of the favourites: 2005 – Kicking King Won @ 4/1<br> 2004 – Best Mate Won @ 8/11<br> 2003 – Best Mate Won @ 13/8<br> 2002 – Looks Like Trouble 13th @ 9/2<br> 2000 – See More Business 4th @ 9/4
Profit from backing last 5 favourites to level stakes: +4.35pts
Previous Cheltenham form
Astonville – 12yo
14/03/05 17f Good Hurdle 13/18 (80 lengths behind winner) 500/1<br>18/03/05 27f Good Chase 10/15 (80 lengths behind winner) 500/1<br>15/03/05 17f Good Hurdle 13/14 (36 lengths behind winner) 500/1<br>01/01/05 21f Good Hurdle 5/6 (60 lengths behind winner) 33/1
Ballycassidy – 10yo
09/12/05 26f Gd/Sft Chase 5/11 (17 lengths behind winner) 12/1<br>18/03/05 27f Good Chase 8/15 (38 lengths behind winner) 80/1<br>29/01/04 26f Gd/Sft Chase 5/7 (60 lengths behind winner) 11/1<br>13/11/04 28f Good Chase 2/11 (3 lengths behind winner) 12/1<br>17/04/03 24f Good Hurdle 8/11 (80 lengths behind winner) 12/1
Beef Or Salmon – 10yo
18/03/05 27f Good Chase P/U (Jumped badly, always behind) 5/1<br>18/03/04 27f Good Chase 4/10 (3.5 lengths behind winner) 10/1<br>13/03/03 27f Good Chase Fell (Fell at 3rd fence when behind) 5/1
Celestial Gold – 8yo
18/03/05 27f Good Chase 7/15 (24 lengths behind winner) 9/2<br>13/11/04 21f Good Chase 1/14 (Won by 2 lengths) 12/1<br>14/04/04 26f Gd/Fm Chase 1/14 (Won by 1 length) 4/5f<br>17/04/04 32f Good Chase 2/22 (2 lengths behind winner) 33/1
Cornish Rebel – 9yo
16/05/05 25f Good Chase 3/9 (6 lengths behind winner) 9/2<br>29/01/05 21f Gd/Sft Chase 3/6 (5 lengths behind winner) 13/8f<br>10/12/04 26f Good Chase 1/4 (Just held on) 8/11f<br>12/03/04 17f Good Bumper 12/25 (18 lengths behind winner) 9/2
Forget the Past – 8yo
12/11/05 21f Gd/Sft Chase 11/18 (25 lengths behind winner) 14/1
Hedgehunter – 10yo
12/03/03 32f Good Chase 12/24 (60 lengths behind winner) 10/1
Iris’s Gift – 9yo
26/10/05 25f Good Chase 1/6 (Won easily) 1/1f<br>18/03/04 24f Good Hurdle 1/10 (Won 1.5 lengths) 9/2<br>13/03/03 24f Good Hurdle 2/11 (1 length behind winner) 7/1<br>14/12/02 24f Good Hurdle 1/7 (Just got there) 13/8f<br>29/10/02 26f Gd/Fm Hurdle 1/10 (Miles clear) 1/2f
Iznogood – 10yo
17/03/05 21f Good Chase 14/22 (50 lengths behind winner) 9/1<br>29/01/05 21f Gd/Sft Chase 14/16 (60 lengths behind winner) 16/1<br>17/03/04 21f Good Chase 2/16 (2.5 lengths behind winner) 9/2f
Joes Edge – 9yo
09/12/05 26f Gd/Sft Chase 4/11 (15 lengths behind winner) 25/1<br>17/03/05 21f Good Chase P/U (Weakened and pulled up) 9/1<br>29/12/05 21f Gd/Sft Chase 2/6 (5 lengths behind winner) 3/1<br>11/12/04 21f Good Chase 2/11 (9 lengths behind winner) 20/1
Kingscliff – 9yo
12/12/03 26f Good Chase 1/7 (Won by 6 lengths) 4/7f<br>13/03/03 27f Good Hunter Chase 1/24 (Won by 2.5 lengths) 11/4f
L’Ami – 7yo
16/03/03 25f Good Chase 4/9 (6 lengths behind winner) 4/1
Limerick Boy – 8yo
01/01/06 21f Gd/Sft Chase 5/13 (19 lengths behind winner) 16/1<br>15/03/05 16f Good Chase P/U (Made mistake and eased) 20/1<br>16/03/04 17f Good Hurdle 12/14 (28 lengths behind winner) 16/1<br>11/03/03 17f Good Hurdle 6/19 (20 lengths behind winner) 33/1
Lord Of Illusion – 9yo
01/01/06 27f Gd/Sft Chase 2/13 (2 lengths behind winner) 8/1<br>11/11/05 21f Gd/Sft Chase P/U (Ran out of steam near end) 11/2<br>01/01/05 27f Good Chase 1/11 (Won easily) 11/4f<br>27/10/04 21f Good Chase 2/12 (2.5 lengths behind winner) 11/2f
Monkerhostin – 9yo
12/11/05 21f Gd/Sft Chase 2/18 (2.5 lengths behind winner) 5/1<br>01/01/05 21f Good Hurdle 3/6 (25 lengths behind winner) 9/4<br>11/12/04 21f Good Chase 1/13 (Won by 7 lengths) 4/1<br>13/11/04 21f Good Chase 3/14 (7 lengths behind winner) 3/1f<br>17/03/04 21f Good Hurdle 1/27 (Won by 1 length) 13/2<br>01/01/04 22f Good Hurdle 2/9 (2 lengths behind winner) 10/1<br>13/03/03 17f Good Hurdle 12/28 (20 lengths behind winner) 10/1
Ollie Magern – 8yo
29/01/05 26f Gd/Sft Chase U/R (Too early to tell) 4/1<br>13/11/04 21f Good Chase 4/14 (9 lengths behind winner) 8/1<br>27/10/04 25f Good Chase 1/6 (Won by 2.5 lengths) 7/2<br>14/04/04 22f Gd/Fm Hurdle 6/11 (14 lengths behind winner) 3/1f<br>17/03/04 21f Good Hurdle 12/27 (19 lengths behind winner) 66/1<br>28/10/03 26f Gd/Fm Hurdles 1/5 (Won by 3.5 lengths) 7/4f
One Knight – 10yo
12/03/03 25f Good Chase 1/9 (Won by 2 lengths) 15/2
Royal Auclair – 9yo
09/12/05 26f Gd/Sft Chase 1/11 (Won by 3.5 lengths) 13/2<br>18/03/05 27f Good Chase 4/15 (14 lengths behind winner) 40/1<br>29/01/05 26f Gd/Sft Chase 3/7 (28 lengths behind winner) 7/2<br>10/12/04 26f Good Chase 2/12 (3 lengths behind winner) 10/3f<br>16/03/03 25f Good Chase 3/11 (11 lengths behind winner) 7/1<br>01/01/04 21f Good Chase Fell (Good chance when fell) 6/1<br>13/12/03 21f Gd/Sft Chase 4/17 (15 lengths behind winner) 33/1<br>11/03/03 25f Good Chase 9/18 (28 lengths behind winner) 20/1<br>14/03/02 21f Good Chase 1/11 (Won by 1.5 lengths) 2/1f<br>26/01/02 21f Heavy Chase 1/4 (Won by 9 lengths) 1/1f
Royal Emperor – 10yo
13/11/04 28f Good Chase 8/11 (27 lengths behind winner) 5/1<br>17/03/04 25f Good Chase 2/10 (1 length behind winner) 6/1<br>11/03/03 26f Good Hurdle 2/24 (Just failed) 14/1
Sir Rembrandt – 10yo
12/11/05 28f Gd/Sft Chase P/U (tailed off when pulled up) 11/1<br>18/03/05 27f Good Chase 3/15 (13 lengths behind winner) 12/1<br>18/03/04 27f Good Chase 2/10 (0.5 lengths behind winner) 33/1<br>24/01/04 26f Gd/Sft Chase P/U (made mistakes and poor) 7/2<br>13/12/02 26f Good Chase 1/7 (Won with little in hand) 7/2
Take The Stand – 10yo
18/03/05 27f Good Chase 2/15 (5 lengths behind winner) 25/1<br>13/11/04 21f Good Chase 6/14 (17 lengths behind winner) 25/1<br>31/10/01 21f Good Hurdle 5/11 (38 lengths behind winner) 14/1
Tikram – 9yo
15/05/05 25f Good Chase 6/20 (8 lengths behind winner) 6/1<br>11/12/04 21f Good Chase 5/13 (12 lengths behind winner) 20/1<br>13/11/04 21f Good Chase 7/14 (30 lengths behind winner) 10/1 <br>14/04/04 21f Gd/Fm Chase 2/8 (0.5 lengths behind winner) 7/2f<br>17/03/04 21f Good Chase 1/16 (Won by 2.5 lengths) 12/1<br>31/12/03 17f Good Chase 2/5 (3 lengths behind winner) 7/2 <br>15/11/03 21f Good Chase 2/4 (9 lengths behind winner) 5/1<br>14/03/02 17f Good Hurdle 18/21 (50 lengths behind winner) 20/1<br>14/12/01 17f Good Hurdle 2/10 (2.5 lengths behind winner) 4/1Jf
Turnium – 11yo
14/03/06 17f Gd/Sft Hurdle P/U (Tailed off at time) 500/1<br>15/03/05 17f Good Hurdle 14/14 (60 lengths behind winner) 500/1
War of Attrition – 7yo
15/05/05 16f Good Chase 7/19 (14 lengths behind winner) 11/4f<br>16/03/04 17f Good Hurdle 2/19 (Just failed) 33/1
<br>Horses Placed in Previous Gold Cups
·Take The Stand (2nd – 2005)<br>·Sir Rembrandt (2nd – 2004, 3rd – 2005)
<br>Based on course form Turnium, Astonville, Limerick Boy and Iznogoud are all ruled out of contention.
<br>One of the most important things in determining how well a horse is going to run is using ratings (in this case RPR) to see how the horse runs in the given conditions and whether it does this on a consistent basis. Each horse will be judged as good as their best RPR over fences but the possibility of improvement is not ruled out. The horse’s best run over course and distance is also looked at and its consistency will be taken into account when a prediction is made.
Ballycassidy – 156-152-156 Predicted Rating (130-150)<br>Beef Or Salmon – 174-169-169 Predicted Rating (If Completes) (159-172)<br>Celestial Gold – 166-160-160 Predicted Rating (150-164)<br>Cornish Rebel – 162-162-162 Predicted Rating (157-164)<br>Forget The Past – 165-x-x Predicted Rating (160?)<br>Hedgehunter – 166-140-148 Predicted Rating (140-159)<br>Iris’s Gift – 155-x-155 Predicted Rating (148-157)<br>Joe’s Edge – 145-136-145 Predicted Rating (130-143)<br>Kingscliff – 170-168-168 Predicted Rating (139-168)<br>L’Ami – 165-155-160 Predicted Rating (157-169)<br>Lord Of Illusion – 156-156-156 Predicted Rating (151-159)<br>Monkerhostin – 171-x-171 Predicted Rating (164-172)<br>Ollie Magern – 165-161-161 Predicted Rating (140-167)<br>One Knight – 167-167-159 Predicted Rating (159-167)<br>Royal Auclair – 165-165-162 Predicted Rating (146-164)<br>Royal Emperor – 163-132-163 Predicted Rating (131-150)<br>Sir Rembrandt – 172-172-172 Predicted Rating (143-164)<br>Take The Stand – 170-170-170 Predicted Rating (159-170)<br>Tikram – 150-x-147 Predicted Rating (132-155)<br>War of Attrition – 164-x-164 (157-166)
After studying the RPR Ballycassidy, Joe’s Edge, Royal Emperor and Tikram can be safely eliminated.
<br>The Gold Cup is not a strong race for statistics but some are worth noting.
·Horses that are 11 and over can be ruled out. Their record as of late is 0/30.<br>·Must have previous track form (shown above).<br>·Horses that have not won any of their last six starts are 0/30.<br>·No horse that didn’t finish in the top 3 last time has ever won. The exception is those that didn’t complete.<br>·No horse has ever won that hasn’t had a preparation run.<br>·Newbury and Wincanton are bogey tracks for prepation runs while Kempton is a good one.<br>·Well raced horses (over 21 starts) have never won the race in 59 attempts.
Youngish, lightly raced horses have the best profile and horses that are out of form don’t win as a rule. Based on its poor form, Ollie Magern can be ruled out and Celestial Gold is blackmarked. We are left with 15 horses.
Beef Or Salmon – Its Cheltenham record would suggest it doesn’t handle the track but if it does it must have a great chance. It is top rated and seems to be at the top of his game, and has no problem with course or distance. The only other reservation is how it will handle a big field as it tends to run in small fields.
Celestial Gold – Decent enough run this time last year but it would be a remarkable training performance if it were to go close after a year off the track. Ruled out.
Cornish Rebel – Running well recently and very consistent. Never been out of the frame in 8 starts over fences and a decent run expected. A run of 160 may be enough to grab a place, so possibilities at 14/1.
Forget The Past – Attracted support after a couple of wins and on the upgrade. Capable of a good run but unproven over the distance and the ground so one to have reservations about. If it stays then a decent chance in a sub-standard renewal.
Hedgehunter – twice beaten by Beef or Salmon and will need that horse to underperform to reverse the placings. May not be ideal conditions and trip for the horse and it may place but it won’t win. Didn’t impress on only visit here either.
Iris’s Gift – Judging by the result of the World Hurdle yesterday the horse would have had a great chance of winning it. Seems an unlikely winner here today, with jumping a major concern and will have to massively step up on what it has shown to date. I don’t believe the horse has a chance of winning, but if anyone can then Tony McCoy can.
Kingscliff – Beat Beef or Salmon at Haydock and ran a cracker that day. However has run poorly since and was flattered to finish second last time and doubts over his current wellbeing. Would not be a surprise if it won but there is a big range of things it could do from winning to being pulled up and so overlooked.
L’Ami – Some good performances recently and very taking effort last time, carrying top weight round heavy fround for second. Performances are getting better and if over last time then more improvement can be expected and a run of 168 is possible which may be good enough. It also has the advantage of being a young, lightly raced improver which is a good profile to have in this race.
Lord of Illusion – Not good enough on paper, but a big price and a lot to like about its performance last time when chasing home useful Joacci. Can’t be recommended for win purposes but place claims if it finds improvement from last time, and may have a few of them of the bridle early with slick jumping in front. Pleasing level of form at Cheltenham as well.
Monkerhostin – Campaigned at 2m4f for most of his career but won a 25f hurdle in earlier days and always stayed on well. Step up to 25f last time brought unexpected improvement and was only a neck away from last year’s champion Kicking King. This didn’t totally dispel stamina issues but another performance like that should be enough to win here. Form here has been very good but does make the odd mistake and can’t afford to do that here. Can envisage the horse running on strongly up the hill but there’s no value at 6/1. A decent chance but not certainty.
One Knight – Considered a soft ground but has decent form on Good ground and no reason to suggest it’s less effective on quicker ground. Found 30f to far at Chepstow when falling at the final fence and no chance to impress last time when unseating its rider. Some decent each way value to be had if the horse jumps its fences as it has won here in its only start and does not have much to find with market leaders.
Royal Auclair – Usually gives a good account but heavily raced and doesn’t win many races. Usually a safe jumper and a good performance expected but likely to find several too good.
Sir Rembrandt – Starting to look like a Grand National horse as it hasn’t shown a turn of foot for a while but keeps on galloping. Has two places in the Gold Cup which counts for a lot but possibly in decline and its jumping is a major concern. One for the risk takers but not completely ruled out.
Take The Stand – One of only two with a Gold Cup place to his name but well beaten in the end by Kicking King. Ground will suit if it continues to dry up and a repeat of last year’s performance may be good enough but I’m concerned it will come to grief this year in the jmping department. Completed 29 of its 38 starts and a further worry is that its had a tough life and may not be as fresh as some of the others Yet to produce last years form since either.
War of Attrition – Late decision to go for this suggests connections must be confident of it staying the trip. Is lightly raced but worry that its stamina is not proven and seemingly held by Beef or Salmon. A further worry is that it can run the odd stinker but respected here at 10/1.
Fits The Bill – L’Ami<br>Getting Better – Forget The Past<br>Top Rated – Beef or Salmon
A spectacle to enjoy regardless of the absentees, with no shortage of pace as there are several front runners. L’Ami has the topspeed in this contest and will not be out of the top four barring a mishap if over its last run and Monkerhostin is likely to be running past tired horses at the end. The vote however goes to One Knight who has the stamina and class to win this if it has a blemish free round. Jumping aside, the selection looks very solid and has a winning profile. Forget The Past may run into a place if it stays this trip and likes the ground.
1st One Knight<br>2nd L’Ami<br>3rd Monerhostin<br>4th Forget The Past
<br>Cheers FSL
Tell me what you think.
I clocked the race a good second quicker than the Racing Post, but the beginning of the race has cocked up on my recording (damn software) so I can’t be sure when the race started exactly (tried my best from the commentary).
Quote: from stevedvg on 10:35 pm on Mar. 16, 2006[br]he has won in a big field
He’s not won a chase in a big field.
And that’s the point – his ability to jump when surrounded by a lot of other horses.
Steve<br>
<br>what do you consider a big field?
what do you consider a big field?
For the sake of a field the size of tomorrow’s gold cup, I’d say 12 would be the minimum.
However, BoS seems to have a limit of 8 or 9.
1st One Knight <br>2nd L’Ami <br>3rd Monerhostin <br>4th Forget The Past
If One Knight could jump, I’d be on him. But a big field at Cheltenham would require the quility of jumping that would surprise me.<br> <br>L’Ami is interesting, but has never gone close in a G1.
Monkerhostin and Forget the Past both look interesting and I’ve got a small position on WoA at double figure odds (which I might lay off as I’m losing interest in the horse’s chances).
Steve
well i’ll be having a small bet on bos he came up the hill like a train in 04 to finish 3.5 off best mate on good ground and if he can reproduce that and his jumping stays together in this big field then i’ll be collecting.
Beef Or Salmon slammed Forget The Past by 15l in the Lexus chase and even though he’s won his two races since then I can’t see how he can turn that form around, having said that it’s Cheltenham and stranger things have happened.
Beef Or Salmon for me, it’s about time things dropped his way in this race.
Royal Auclair as a saver. ;)
<br>Good luck to all anyway and lets hope they all come back safe and sound.
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