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To give you an example today I took 5-2 early doors Dee Ex Bee and it’s return S.P. was 7-2. This basically cost me £50
Seems to me every horse I take a price on drifts
Now I remember back in the day John Mccrick saying “Always take a price” or some nonsense like that- always seems to be a thing that “smart” punters do, yet the reality is the smart play is to just let it run and take S.P.
Btw I’m not talking about Ante post here obviously when you might be betting a significant amount of time before the race, I’m talking about taking a price on the day of the race, which seems to be to be at best a complete waste of time and at worst a very foolish thing to do
Thoughts?
To be honest Judge I take the price everything nowadays as apart from ante post most things are BOG for me.
I rarely bet anything that isn’t BOG now!!
I do remember the days of shall I shan’t I as far as taking the price is concerned
Oddschecker has a list of bookies going BOG for bets within the decs period. You sure that was an antepost race Judge? Was an ordinary conditions stakes. When did you put the bet on?
The proof is in the pudding judge, you’re taking the price too early. The vast majority of horses drift from first show.
Oddschecker has a list of bookies going BOG for bets within the decs period. You sure that was an antepost race Judge? Was an ordinary conditions stakes. When did you put the bet on?
No as I stated in my post Joe it had nothing to do with Ante-post, it was a bet I placed today, down the betting shop. I tend to avoid betting online, because I find it very easy to do “loose” bets, ie chuck bets on anything and everything when it’s there in front of you 24/7.
Obviously not having BOG is a huge handicap.
And as Yeats says the proof is in the pudding.
Sorry, Judge – oddly enough I got a text this morning from my optician reminding me my eye test was due . :)
Yeats is right.
If you had a timeline in the life cycle of a racing market, you’d see the biggest overrounds overnight, more competitive from about 08:00 in the morning, peak competitiveness from about 11:00 until the pre-show period and then the show.
It’s a feel thing with each horse though, isn’t it? You’ll never time it right with every bet but you do get a yin for the way they might go after a while. Agreed it is frustrating to get it wrong though – feels like some kind of ultra-win when your horse wins and you’re on at the biggest price it ever touched.
There could be an up-side to this Judge, if it is happening consistently. Your selection policy and the timing of your “getting on” suggest you have a nice little system there, by Laying on the exchanges at the price and time when you normally bet, and Backing when you normally notice that the horse you picked has drifted. What could possibly go wrong?
I always bet with Best-Odds-Guaranteed so never have this problem. But if I didn’t then I think I’d probably take a price rather than SP with the thinking that I’d be more annoyed if a didn’t take a price took a lower SP than if I took it and lost out on a bigger SP.
I always bet with Best-Odds-Guaranteed so never have this problem. But if I didn’t then I think I’d probably take a price rather than SP with the thinking that I’d be more annoyed if a didn’t take a price took a lower SP than if I took it and lost out on a bigger SP.
Yes maybe but in my experience they seem to drift more often than not- being annoyed shouldn’t come into it. It’s whether they drift or not more on average and what lost soldier says makes perfect sense- I don’t know why I didn’t see this before- that the closer the race comes the more competitive the prices become.
If I’m in doubt about calling the price right I tend to have half stake at the price and half at SP
I always bet with Best-Odds-Guaranteed so never have this problem. But if I didn’t then I think I’d probably take a price rather than SP with the thinking that I’d be more annoyed if a didn’t take a price took a lower SP than if I took it and lost out on a bigger SP.
What happens if you had accounts restricted and had to bet in a shop? Although that isn’t the case with me of course.
If your betting BOG why wouldn’t you take the price? And if your not betting BOG why aren’t you?
Bookmaker SP is the leftover mug price after all the shrewdies have had their cut.
Paddy Power are BOG in-store from 11am-1pm daily so you can take the price safely
Ladbrokes are normally BOG in-store on 2 meetings daily from 11am, other meetings are often BOG for Grid customers only
Betfred are normally BOG in-store on 2 meetings daily as well, from opening time I think
It amazes me how Hills have such a share of the market when they are pretty much the worst in-store bookie
I have to place quite a lot of bets in-store as many of my online accounts are BOG- restricted or stake restricted. Paddy and Betfred are normally my first port of call…
If your betting BOG why wouldn’t you take the price? And if your not betting BOG why aren’t you?
Bookmaker SP is the leftover mug price after all the shrewdies have had their cut.
As I explained above, I don’t bet that much online.
To say that it’s the leftover mug price seems like a gross exaggeration.
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