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It seems as though the ground at Longchamp will be soft judging by yesterday’s times.
In the Prix De L’Abbaye(1.15), only Beauty Is Truth has form credentials on this type of ground, so is an appealing price at 9/1.
For the same reasons, Light Shift in the 3.00 and Authorized in the Arc(3.40) are strong fancies, but their odds are not so attractive to suggest they are value bets.
The going changed from Saturday to Sunday. It was just on the slow side of good which didn’t give any great advantage to soft ground specialists.
It made no difference to Beauty Is Truth in the sprint because she stumbled out of the stalls and lost all chance.
Light Shift ran a fair race but Authorized was well below form.[/color:1oci1w2w]
In the 3.15 Newbury, the morning price for Sunisa (9/2) catches the eye as being very generous.
She is thoroughly genuine and 10f on easy ground are her ideal conditions. She also comes here in top form. The main reason she isn’t a shorter price is that the trainer and jockey are not ‘fashionable’ at Newbury.The opposition is not very strong, and I believe she will be around 3/1 at the off.
Sunisa(7/2) finished 4th beaten 11 lengths in a slowly run race, running well below form.[/color:1hy7rj90]
York 2.10
Fairmile has the best form and the benefit of a recent race. Acts on any ground. The stable has three in the race and Dettori prefers one of the others, Best Alibi – likely to start favourite. Fairmile could be around 9/2, which looks a value bet.
Lingfield 4.35
Samarinda(11/2) is game and consistent with proven recent AW form and is worth a bet against the likely hot favourite, Al Khaleej who could be very well handicapped, but lacks a recent run.
Fairmile(7/2) could be called as the winner from about 3f out and won with a fair bit in hand.
Samarinda(13/2) was reluctant to enter the stalls, fly-jumped leaving them, was dashed into the lead and ran out of petrol with 2f to run, finishing well behind. This was not her form and something must have been amiss.[/color:24hc1g2n]
Today, I’m siding with two horses in very good form who will both be suited by easy ground.
Ascot 2.20 Ladies Best(9/1) is ultra consistent and has run only one moderate race(denied a clear run at Goodwood). Ran very well over C/D last time and seems sure to take a part in the finish. Will relish the ground and may yet have scope to improve.
Ascot 1.45 Brisk Breeze(3/1) is in the same mould, tough and genuine.
She stands out on form and it will take a big performance from one of her rivals to beat her.It’s hard to say how Ladies Best(13/2) might have fared because he was almost brought to a standstill twice. Once, when Durcan tried to make ground up the inside and was completely cut off as the field came back across and shortly afterwards as he ran in to the back of the stricken Mariotto. All part of racing, I know.
Brisk Breeze(11/4f) seemed to be going best of all with 2f to run but didn’t find a great deal when pressure was applied, gradually losing 3rd place near the line. No excuses.[/color:2ubqq13s]
Goodwood 5.15
Esteem Machine(8/1) is a progressive sprinter. I believe he went a bit too fast last time at Ascot and didn’t last home. Goodwood is a fast course where pacey horses can get away, so I’m hoping he can get to the front and hang on. Has won decisively on soft, so no worries about the ground.
Bath 2.00
Green Wadi is the form choice on my figures, so I was surprised at the odds of around 9/2. Excuse of soft ground last time, so should give a much better account today on good to firm.
The Goodwood sprint was one for the draw followers, the first four coming from the highest stalls, indicating a huge bias. Those that raced on the stands side might as well have stayed at home in their boxes for what chance they had. Esteem Machine(13/2) cannot be considered unlucky as he had every chance and was soundly beaten.
Green Wadi (5/2, after one of the fancied rivals was taken out) could only manage third. He had every chance and this is about as good as he is.[/color:1im0ud1z]
I think Sphinx(3.40 Nottingham) has a much better chance than his odds imply. He is a thoroughly genuine stayer, consistent and suited by soft ground, dual C/D winner, ridden by J Egan(knows the horse well) who is exceptional in distance races. My main worry is that he may simply be up against a couple of well handicapped opponents and find the weight concession just beyond him. At around 10/1, he looks sure to give a good performance and is worth a bet.
When a horse runs too freely, they seldom get home, even in races at shorter distances than two miles. Sphinx(9/1) did just that and his chance was gone. You never know when this is going to happen, although some horses have a history of doing it. Maybe this horse needs more cover in a bigger field, but he’s sure to pop up again in the future.
I’m off on holiday for a few weeks, completely away from the racing.[/color:19omv24o]
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