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Value Bets

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 23 total)
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  • #5033
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    I’ve just closed a few threads on the ‘systems’ part of the forum. Neither of these were profitable at SP, although I did manage to make a few bob at the bigger meetings using Betfair.

    I thought I might post a few of my thoughts and bets here on an occasional basis.

    I’m concentrating on races where the RP top-rated is at least 100(jumps 135), which cuts out about 80% of the daily output of moderate fare from around the country. I’m also looking for good value – a debateable concept, I know. If you are ahead of the game, you are getting value; If you are constantly beating SP but still losing, you are just plain unlucky. Your luck will change.

    Today, I think WYATT EARP(York 3.55) at around 10/3, and CORIOLANUS(York 4.30) at 9/4 are value bets.

    Wyatt Earp loves this 6f at York and the ground will be fine. He’s just coming into his best form and Paul Hannigan knows how to get the best out of him. I’ve had a small interest in Partners In Jazz at 14/1. If they go too fast, which they can do at York, he might just reel them in near the line.

    Coriolanus is back to something like his best form and would have more to do if this were a handicap. Entitled to be favourite.

    So much for value – both the main bets started at longer odds than the early Betfair prices I had taken. Wyatt Earp(4/1jf) ran a decent race to finish 3rd and was beaten by better horses on the day and at the weights. He might find it hard to win again this season. Partners in Jazz needs a stiffer 6f than this or perhaps an easy 7f. Worth keeping an eye on as he looks well handicapped at the moment. Coriolanus(3/1) reverted to his disappointing form prior to his promising Ascot run. He never looked likely to get involved and looks like one to avoid in future.[/color:2rjmt7nd]

    • Total Posts 1736

    The 4.20 Folkestone over the minimum trip is very tight.
    I’ve gone for Bluebok at a generous 7/1(to small stakes). He is a very consistent sprinter when he gets his conditions and looks sure to be involved in the finish. Apart from the two outsiders(who look held), any of the others could win, although Texas Gold looks as if he has lost his edge.
    The handicapper knows this lot very well, so it is likely to be a close call and 7/2 the field, at least.

    [b:1cfhvh4r]Loch Verdi won this comfortably, breaking quickly and always in command. Bluebok(11/2) was outpaced at one stage and when he did pick up, there was no room to go anywhere, but I don’t think he would have troubled the easy winner. [/color:1cfhvh4r][/b:1cfhvh4r]

    • Total Posts 1736

    Doncaster is usually a fair track providing no strong draw bias emerges. I’ve always favoured the stands side on the straight course, but the general consensus seems to be that you can win on both sides.

    My best value bet is Star Of Light(4.55) at 12/1. A very game horse who needs a decent pace, I would think he will have to make the running here.
    I expected him to be brushed aside the last time he tried to make all, but he surprised me by sticking his neck out and keeping going. Not particularly well handicapped, but price looks far too big against other exposed horses.

    Cristal Clear(2.40) at 8/1 is also a value bet considering she came from last to first to win a hot York nursery recently. She couldn’t repeat that in a slower run Listed race at Ripon against better horses, but she still ran very well indeed. This extended 6f(+110yds) will be ideal for her provided she gets the breaks against some very unexposed rivals.

    Flight Plan(3.10) has the best form on offer here, so 8/1 is a very tempting price. There is probably something better than him in the race, but his form looks quite solid to me and I would expect him to run very well even if he doesn’t win.

    Reel Gift(3.45) and Ravarino(5.30) both have solid chances on my figures and should run very well, but the market has already discounted their form, leaving no value IMO.

    Star Of Light(14/1) looked out of his depth here. No excuses.

    Cristal Clear(15/2,3rd) had to be switched to get a clear run, came with what looked like a winning challenge but the hung in the last 50yds and was beaten a length. Another decent effort.

    Flight Plan(10/1 unpl btn 5l) swerved out of the stalls and almost took the rest of the field across to the far rail, which could have been very nasty. He then ran across to the far side before being brought back to head the main group. He raced very freely and, unsurprisingly, weakened when the race began in earnest. He did well to finish so close, but the time was slow.

    Reel Gift (5/1f) finished 4th, but Ravarino(9/4f) disappointed and finished down the field. [/color:3xc9fmch]

    • Total Posts 1736

    The going at Doncaster is firm judged on yesterday’s times, so there may be a few withdrawals as the day goes on.

    My main bet today is Medicea Sidera in the 4.55 at around 7/1. She is an improving filly who has won her last two from the front at Newmarket, not always an easy track for front runners. I believe there is more to come and she can handle the step up in grade.

    In the 3.45, Don’t Forget Faith(3/1) has a solid chance and should be suited by the step up tp a mile.

    I’ve had a small interest in some longer priced horses, all having a decent chance on my figures.

    2.05 Bonjour Allure (16/1)
    2.40 Don’t Dili Dali (14/1)
    5.30 Haajes (14/1)

    The track was very fast which seemed to favour horses coming from off the strong pace.

    Medici Sedera(7/1) led to the 2f pole and kept on finishing 5th beaten 5l. Not a bad effort for a front runner on this ground, so not written off just yet.

    Don’t Forget Faith(5/2) was well beaten, the jockey reporting that the horse was unsuited by the ground.

    Don’t Dili Dali(10/1) was outclassed.

    Bonjour Allure(14/1) raced prominently and then dropped out to finish last.

    Haajes(17/2) had every chance and was unable to match the speed of the closers (5th btn 3l)

    When you are given lemons, you should try and make some lemonade.
    The positive aspect of the day was that using Betfair, I managed to beat SP on all 5 bets. If you can do this every day, you cannot help but make money – in the long run.

    Kingston Town
    • Total Posts 1049

    5.30 Haajes (14/1)

    That’s Danny’s horse, I hope you’re right

    • Total Posts 1736

    I’m struggling to find any bets at Doncaster today at the prices available.

    The only value I can find is Allegretto in the 2.40 at 7/2.(4.7 Betfair). Septimus is the 5/4 f and has a solid claim, but Allegretto also has strong credentials returning to a longer distance after a bold effort in the Yorkshire Oaks against Peeping Dawn.

    Perfect Act and Fleeting Spirit look likely winners, but hardly represent value and there are two wide open handicaps where nothing really appeals.

    Septimus was a hugely impressive winner beating Allegretto by 5l. The winner looks a leading contender for next year’s Cup races, giving Aidan O’Brien(who already has Yeats) a very strong hand. Allegretto wasn’t given a hard time once Dettori realised he was fighting a losing battle. Septimus won pulling up.

    Perfect Act was 2nd, running a fair race.

    Fleeting Spirit was impressive, travelling well until settling the contest with a change of pace that left her rivals in her wake.[/color:27yzhzr4]

    • Total Posts 1736

    The most difficult race to solve is the big sprint at Doncaster (2.40).

    Lipocco, a 3yo in cracking form is my bet, although it is hard to argue that the price is very appealing in such a competitive event. Even so, I expect the 8/1 to be taken.

    Lipocco(6/1) finished last of the group on the stands side after helping to set the pace. No real excuse.[/color:3q6q9t9i]

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    In the 4.05 at Sandown, I think Fragrancy looks a value bet at around 7/2 to beat the likely favourite, Ventura. The two have met before at Windsor when Fragrancy was perhaps a fortunate winner and is now worse off. However, she has come on since then and looks as though she can give a good account. She is game and consistent and seems sure to start shorter than this morning’s price.

    Fragrancy was supported to 11/4 and finished a gallant second, beaten a neck, to the 15/8f Ventura.[/color:t4so5ytf]

    • Total Posts 1736

    I’ve supported The Grey Berry in his last two races and he is at the top of my figures again in the 4.20 at Ayr.
    I don’t think he is progressive, but the form he has in the book on ground with cut makes him a value bet at around 8/1. Any further rain at the track could see his price cut significantly.

    At Pontefract, Perfect Treasure does not have an obvious chance in the 4.00 over a distance short of her best. But the stiffness of the track, firm ground and her recent good form, together with doubts about most of her opponents, make her appealing at the current price of 14/1. I don’t expect a gamble on her, she’s just seems overpriced to me.

    Going is the key for Mull Of Dubai in the 4.10 Yarmouth. If early race times indicate any slowing of the ground due to recent rain, the price will be less than it is now(about 10/1).

    The rains arrived at Ayr, helping The Grey Berry(7/1) to snatch a victory after looking as though he wasn’t going to find a gap in time.

    Perfect Treasure was well supported into 7/1, yet never looked likely to get anywhere near the front two.

    Mull Of Dubai was eased right down on this unsuitable ground, probably being saved for another day when conditions are more suitable. [/color:2ry3ub0m]

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    Soft ground at Ayr and not much in the draw.

    In the Ayr Silver Cup(4.40), Commando Scott has his favoured conditions and looks sure to give a good account. There are a host of dangers and the race might well unfold on the opposite rail, but 20/1 still looks good value.If the rains continue and the low drawn runners in the earlier sprint do well, he could be the subject of a gamble.

    If only Bold Marc (5.15, Ayr) had a recognisable jockey on board, he would probably be my main bet today. Given a steady pace, which is likely on this ground, his prominent style of running should enable him to be involved in the finish. However, he needs a canny ride and I’m not sure this apprentice has the experience to deliver it. Only a token bet at 20/1.
    I can’t see him starting any bigger than this. If Spencer was riding, he would be 9/2!

    Commando Scott(9/1) won the race on the far side but was no match for the impressive winner, Utmost Respect and six others on the stands side. i don’t think he would have troubled the winner in any case.

    Commando Scott won on Saturday over 7f. 7/2f this time and I wasn’t on.

    Bold Marc(14/1) missed the break and his young rider sensibly did not rush him round the outside but made up the ground gradually to reach a challenging position 2f out. He then flattened out and had nothing more to give.

    My two bets in the Ayr Gold Cup on Saturday were Fullandby at 20/1(SP 12/1) and Partners in Jazz at 28/1(SP 20/1). Both finished in midfield without any apparent excuses. [/color:1pdfjr4l]

    • Total Posts 1736

    There may be a couple of bets at Hamilton today provided the ground isn’t too soft.

    I’ll be having a look at the time of the first race which would have to be below 73 seconds to convince me that the ground was good.

    All being well, I’m interested in Nezami in the 3.40 and Riotous Applause in the 4.10.

    Nezami at around 11/4 looks very well handicapped for his handicap debut and might be suited by the drop in trip. Big doubt if it gets soft.

    Riotous Applause(about 7/2) is searching for black type and has probably been well prepared for this listed race. Her recent form is a few lbs better than the opposition. She has some form on ground with a bit of cut, but not soft.

    The time of the first race suggested the ground was not soft. I didn’t manage to get back in time to have a bet in any case.

    Nezami won at 9/4f and Riotous Applause was unplaced at 7/2f[/color:1e2tpu8c]

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    The 3.50 at Pontefract might see the favourite and second favourite flip-flop before the off.
    At present the market is: 5/4 Gulf Express and 15/8 Many Volumes.

    On my reading of their respective form, MV has a clear edge on the book and ran a cracking race last time trying to give weight to Kirklees who franked the form by winning at Goodwood yesterday.

    Gulf Express is progressive in fair handicaps but has had seven races, so isn’t going to find a lot extra today. His recent Newbury win came in a 0-90 Newbury handicap in a moderate time.

    He might win …..but 5/4?

    If he starts that price, I will be very surprised. The shrewd money will all be for , Many Volumes, who ought to win this.

    Gulf Express did start at 5/4jf along with Many Volumes and won by a neck in what was a very slowly run race indeed. A tactical ploy, no doubt.
    The result and placings cannot tell us very much when the time is as slow as this.

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    In the 2.35 at Ascot, many people will have Jimmy Styles as a banker on the strength of his easy 3 lengths victory over Esteem Machine(2lb better off today). EM would be unlikely to reverse that form unless he has improved since that race. The form book suggests EM has improved a stone in his two races since then while JS has not raced. I don’t think there should be much between the two today, so the 7/1 on offer for Esteem Machine should be taken. I believe it will be shorter once the number crunchers have done their computations.

    Esteem Machine was supported into 9/2 and finished 3rd beaten about 2 lengths. The going changed from good to firm to good to soft which made no difference to EM but Jimmy Styles was floundering and finished a remote last.[/color:3hpohxb8]

    • Total Posts 1736

    Ascot 3.40

    I’m sure there is at least one more good race to be won with 7f/soft ground specialist Partners In Jazz. Today might be too tough an assignment, so I’m only having a small bet at around 25/1. He will be shorter, but probably not that much.

    Haydock 3.35

    Invincible Force looks too big a price at 9/1 for a horse who looks to have a solid chance on recent form and one that will not be bothered with the ground. He is back to his best listed class form of last season.

    Partners In Jazz(18/1) was beaten about 8 lengths into 15th position. Had every chance.

    Invincible Force drifted out to 12/1, led for about 4f and then kept on at one pace to be 5th, beaten about 5 lengths.[/color:qaun475r]

    • Total Posts 1736

    Soft ground at Ascot presents three betting opportunities today.

    In the 3.10 Prince Sabaah at 14/1 has a much better chance than his odds suggest. His only moderate run was on desperate ground at Nottingham over a distance too far and even then he wasn’t beaten that far. Has proved himself over this C/D on soft ground and should not be underestimated.

    Al Qasi in the 4.20 has an ideal opportunity to reaffirm his excellent form on soft ground last back end. 6/1 looks a fair price; I can’t see him starting any bigger.

    In the 4.55, Kinsya, who is a soft ground/1mile specialist, has ideal conditions and comes here approaching top form. 5/1, will shorten if early races suggest going is getting softer.

    [b:2wsb8wes]PS supported in to 8/1 had every chance but couldn’t quicken when the time came. Might need to step up in trip but does look one paced.

    AQ, 5/1, was on the stands side and finished clear of four others but there was another four horses in front of him in the centre of the course. He might have been unlucky having nothing to race with for the last furlong and a half.

    K, 9/2 co fav, ran no sort of race and was below the form of his Ayr second.[/color:2wsb8wes][/b:2wsb8wes]

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