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Like Calgary Bay and Racing Demon you mean?
Valid point mate but I never thought much of Racing Deamon and Calgary Bay is such a big softy I think anyone would have trouble keeping him right. AP thought he was a future world beater when he won on him at Cheltenham. In the Arkle he must have thought they had switched him with a ringer he run so badly and after Aintree I think he gave up on the horse completely.
To be fair to Hen and Terry they did keep Best Mate sound for for a very long time. Up to now they have done really well with Somerby who has never been out of the first 4 and won a bumper a hirdleand a chase.
I would be happy to bet you an even 1000 pound that he’ll be in the first 4 tomorrow barring a fall.In fact I’ll lay you 10,000 to 2000 as I am feeling generous
Even with a small field tomorrow this looks a real race tomorrowa and it will be interesting to see how it turns out. I will be licking my wounds if Crack Away Jack doesn’t trot up though….can’t win this won’t be winning the Arkle.
I will be licking my wounds if Crack Away Jack doesn’t trot up though….can’t win this won’t be winning the Arkle.
Didn’t they say the same about My Way De Solzen when he was beat here a few years back.
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Probably did but he was probably a little bit lucky to have won the Arkle. Fair Along was a really top class animal back then and had hacked up at Sandown but at Cheltenham My Way De Solzen managed to turn the form on it’s head. Many blamed Johnson for a bad ride but they always do when things go wrong.. The ground was soft in both races and while he had gone through it with ease at Sandown Fair Along couldn’t get going in the Arkle and was in trouble from the very first fence. Still can’t believe how badly he ran and still manged to finish 2nd.
Poor old Fair Along was thown straight back into the fire 3 days later, gambled of the boards in the county Hurdle and was tailed off……horse hasn’t been the same since but showed some of his old sparkle when beating Pettifour the other day…..next stop the Long Walk Hurdle.
Poor old Fair Along was thown straight back into the fire 3 days later, gambled of the boards in the county Hurdle and was tailed off……horse hasn’t been the same since but showed some of his old sparkle when beating Pettifour the other day…..next stop the Long Walk Hurdle.
The horse has quite literally had the sheight kicked out of him in the past IMO. I honestly don’t think he’s ever been campaigned like the serious horse he is either. If the Long Walk hurdle was his only race before Cheltenham, he’d go there with a decent chance IMO. His last run was as good as I’ve seen him for a long time. Would love to see him win a prize like that.
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Fair Along is basically a stayer, and beat MWDS by dint of a soft lead. When it came to the Arkle, he just couldn’t keep up with them.
Doubt he’ll ever stay welll enough to win a Long Walk though.Well, this time last year I was making my way to Sandown in the hope that Flipper was going to grab Tingle Creek glory. OK, maybe I’m biased, but we really think he would have been in the first 3 last year if he hadn’t fallen, and I think he’d have been in the first 3 this year as well, although I would be quite concerned about the ground. Most German breds however don’t mind it on the heavy side, and that why I’m going for Well Chief this year. Again I’m a bit biased of course, but I just think there are too many question marks about the others. Twist Magic is just too in and out for me (although he’s got quite a good record round Sandown), I’m not sure if Big Zebs jumping will hold out, Forpadydeplasterer seems to have a case of seconditis and Mahogany Blaze is probsbly just short of this class. Pity it’s such a small field, but Master Minded (and Flipper!!!) aside, you’ve got the best 2 milers around in this race.
If the ground was good / good-soft I’d be very, very confident about the chances of Twist Magic, but with connections of all the fancied contenders voicing concerns about the ground, you have to be wary.
Twist Magic may be an in and out performer, but he’s certainly more in than out at Sandown and perhaps now is the time to catch him. He ran a blinder at Exeter on his comeback, giving 15lbs to the winner, and he has gone well in testing conditions before.
Well Chief is the main danger.
Thats my feelings Bosranic. Twist’s ‘in’ days have occured around Sandown and if he can do himself justice here He will certainly be the one to beat. Well chief has shown no level of form yet this season to win this and as we all know Big Zeb cant be relied upon to handle these fences. If twist can run something like his best Big Zeb will need more than a clear round to beat him anyway. Forpady represents the danger if twist doesnt settle into the race but this is certainly one to watch, not to punt on.
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Had another look at the Connaught, and it’s probably unfair to judge Well Chief on Mahogany Blaze’s proximity.
MB was never in the same race as the principals, and came through to sneak 2nd place a long time after WC had seen off Masterminded, and had won the race well before the placed horses became a factor. WC wasn’t asked a serious question afterwards, and I’ll be surprised if there isn’t much more between them today – maybe even enough for Well Chief to win it, if the other trainers are to be believed about the ground?Big Zeb’s jumping remains a concern but, blinded by the belief that he is the most likely winner of next year’s Champion Chase, I must back him to beat this motley crew today.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
There s a definite lack of pace angles in saturdays race and agree completely that forpady is completely wrong price.MoCoy will most likely be able to dictate his own pace and if for pady won’t like the ground you can bet it will inconvenience twist magic even more. I was delighted that well chief won at aintree but looking at the form objectively he beat an injured master minded and mahogany blaze by very little. At current prices Mahogany Blaze is 8 or 9 times the price of Mahogany Blaze for a 1 1/4l beating at level weights. It’s 155-160 form at best and in my book Well Chief should be a longer price than forpady who badly needed his comeback run behind Herecomesthe truth, but he did jump and travel very well that day. I still think Big Zeb is the most obvious winner but he still has questions to answer on the jumping front, and he’ll never carry my money at such a short price
My book for the race would be
Big Zeb 11/8
FPTP 7/2
Twist Magic 7/2
Well Chief 11/2
Maghogany Blaze 16/1So at current best prices available I think FPTP at 7/1 and Mahogany at 33/1 (both available at the magic sign)are the value in the race.
JMorrisey,
Do you always work your book out to over 100%? Your prices are to almost 108%. Therefore (imo) it gives a false impression of how much value might be there.
Value Is EverythingMy 100% book is:
13/8 Big Zeb, 11/4 Well Chief, 7/2 Twist Magic, 8/1 Forpaddytheplasterer, 28/1 Mahogany Blaze.Big Zeb’s jumping is a bit of a worry, but imo has a better chance of improving than most. Connections have voiced concerns about the ground; but I don’t see it as any more of a problem than the rest of the field.
Well Chief did not need to be anywhere near his best in the Connaught Chase. Then again, he won easily and would not need to show the form of his third to Moscow Flyer in this to win. His win in the VC was on pretty soft, so don’t expect a problem with the going.
Twist Magic has a good chance on form, ran well on reappearance at Exeter. Has a good record at Sandown and was travelling like the second best horse last year when falling. However, he always travells well and often finds little under pressure. Has looked mulish at the start and there is a slight chance of planting himself.
Forpaddytheplasterer has won on very soft early on in his life. But has since improved on a sounder surface. Has idled badly in front and may be difficult in a slowly run race.
Mahogany Blaze should not be good enough, unless he gets an easy lead. Quite possible in this field of hold up horses.
Have backed Well Chief 100/30 with a saver on Big Zeb 2/1.
Value Is EverythingI thought it was interesting that David Pipe said they think Well Chief is better left-handed nowadays. That combined with the fear that he may have lost a little boot rising 11 have me against him here. Big Zeb is becoming overpriced at over 2/1.
Agreed – Big Zeb now looks a knocking bet now at 2’s. Why is he drifting though? Will love the ground, form in the book, impressive reappearance. I’m puzzled?
Big Zeb – Has his rating through his proximity to a below par Master Minded, so could have holes in it. Jumping concerns, too short.
Well Chief – Proximity of Newmill tells you all about the Cheltenham form. His best RPR is 5 years ago. Old and hardly improving even if lightly raced. Too short.
Forpdaytheplasterer – Cant see a slowish pace on a 2 mile park track playing to his strengths. Has been beaten in these type of pace/distance events before.
Mahogany Blaze – Dont know much about him, but does he have another 10lbs improvement in him at this stage?
Twist Magic – Everything perfect for him today on the track he loves, will be prepped to the minute and not short on ability. 11/4-3/1 would be a decent bet imo.
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I agree Big Zeb is Great Value! HAVING SOME OF THAT
I’ve decided he wont fall 
1. Big Zeb
2. Well ChiefWouldn’t be a bad bet for the forecast.
Ginge where on earth do you get the idea MB is a value bet?
15 lengths to make up on Well Chief QMCC, 10 lengths on Twist Magic TC, never won on soft. You can bet your backside he shouldn’t be good enough even if he gets what you call a soft lead…..more chance of number 7 coming up on a dice
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Mahogany Blaze – Dont know much about him, but does he have another 10lbs improvement in him at this stage?
Nope
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