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(In my best jewish voice)
"So now I have to take advice from a crap tipster!" shrug…
I’ve never offered my advice to you once, and never said you ‘have to’ listen to any advice – I simply offer an opinion.
Whatever happened to "The greatest obstacle to thinking differently is straightforwardness"
Mike
Not sure where this slightly strange thread was leading, but knowing the habits of trainers (training habits….of course
) is clearly a big factor in picking winnersForm is the bedrock of all judgement which is subsequently weighted (not statistically… boiling everything down to numbers often simply confuses and wastes time) by other factors.
Taking the Channon example. Is he as likely to risk a horse on unsuitable going and distance as say Micheal Jarvis?
Has to be considered
Hi clivex
it’s 1/1000 Fav this thread will lead nowhere, but I cannot resist throwing down a
gauntlet.
byefrom
carlisleI think the “space” you are talking about is something we can’t calculate, something that all numbers, statistics or ratings can’t tell us. And it’s the thing that seperates a good horse player form a bad one. Right?
Nitro, you’re bang on with this. It’s a third dimension. Just about any competent punter can pick 2/1 winners based on factors which are obvious and readily available. And there is little wrong with that, particularly in this largely predictable flat season.
But whether or not the recognition of space separates the good from the bad is another matter. It can certainly make a pundit look inspirational when it goes to plan, like the presenter on TVG in the States who napped Giacomo at 50/1 in the 2005 Kentucky Derby based on some ephemeral pace notion which you would struggle to find in the DRF charts.
Funny that you mention Giacomo, my wife had a win bet on him. She is a great horse player.
However, I think “space” is also inspiration, feeling and luck.Hi nitro
you touch on something useful there. (I have dipped in and out of "The Apprentice" tv show, and I listened to some follow up comments on the radio.) Well they went a bit like this.
"Successful business people, when presented with inadquate evidence, have a knack of usually making the right decision."
Serious horse racing study shares this challenge.
byefrom
carlisleThats because a lot of filtering of information is almost subconcious and not necessarily quantifiable. Gets better with experience…
you dont need to make a rating or write an essay on why you dont fancy that Alan Berry runner
Hi nitro
you touch on something useful there. (I have dipped in and out of "The Apprentice" tv show, and I listened to some follow up comments on the radio.) Well they went a bit like this.
"Successful business people, when presented with inadquate evidence, have a knack of usually making the right decision."
Serious horse racing study shares this challenge.
byefrom
carlisleHi carlisle
That’s the problem, making the right decision. How often do we play the wrong horse if we like more horses in a race?
the computer must read the "nuts & bolts" of the form.
The things that the slave cannot easily deal with file under space.
Gut feeling? Intuition? ‘Jump off the page’ bets that you can’t coherently explain?
IMO these are some of the reasons Tom Segal is subject to much criticism as he strikes me as one of your ‘space’ punters and understandably finds it difficult to put across his thoughts in a manner pleasing to a betting public weaned on handicap marks, speed figures, going and comforting phrases such as ‘x is held by y on a line through z’
You may find it worthwhile exploring the application of Neural Nets to betting strategies as I believe they venture beyond the "nuts and bolts" and glimpse the dark side.
Hi Drone
it just too big for a one person to handle. Nevermind I can always get my brushes out or even have a potter around the garden.
it been fun…
it just too big for a one person to handle. Nevermind I can always get my brushes out or even have a potter around the garden.
Indeed Carlisle
As a very wise man wrote – "Cela est bien dit, mais il faut cultiver notre jardin"
Or if you prefer – when the going gets tough, retire to the potting shed
) is clearly a big factor in picking winners
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