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The races that get me are those where afterwards no matter how hard you try, you still can’t work out how the bugger won.
"This is just a germ of an idea" or should it be a gem???
I would kill one and guard the other!
If I understand what is meant by Space .. does it mean that this could also be known as a degree of certainty and therefore should be included in any pricing model, if you are working out your prices correctly ??
This could become a lot like the Blue Square adverts.
In Art, the background is a critical part of the finished painting and artists are trained to consider all dimensions when creating a visual image including length, width, height, depth, object and colour.
This is, apparently, what makes the Mona Lisa such an amazing painting. Each centimetre of the painting has inherent meaning. Alter a single centimetre and you change the essence of the message.
In short, you lose the enigmatic smile.
One other thing artists do is stare. There are hundreds of free perceptual illusions, for example, hanging around the internet.
All you have to do is concentrate – and eventually the whole is revealed. I think this has some validity in finding winners, the less obvious ones, which sometimes make the game such a treat.
Hi Maxilon 5
I am amazed that you know what I mean, and I’m in such a good mood that I forgive everyone else.
Wallace, germ as in germinate. You hold on to your gems, but make sure you wash your hands.
byefrom
carlisleI think the "space" you are talking about is something we can’t calculate, something that all numbers, statistics or ratings can’t tell us. And it’s the thing that seperates a good horse player form a bad one. Right?
Carlisle,
When you next have a ‘thought of the day’ can you make it a less complicated one please?
I think there are some very very intelligent people on here, but I also think some people try and over complicate trying to find a winner – in fact, I think some people grossly over complicate trying to find a winner.
I don’t make much profit – and if you looked at my placepot selections then you would think I don’t make a penny
– but believe me my gambling does pay for itself.When I say ‘pay for itself’ I mean I have a betting bank that I haven’t had to deposit into for a long time and yet I can still enjoy a bet anytime I like within my limits. Yet I have never done my own ratings, I have never looked at ‘space’, I have never looked at trends. The only things I ever go on no matter what sport I am having a bet on is FORM & CLASS
Form & Class tells me everything I need to know. An in form golfer in the right class, an in form football team in the right class, an inform horse or greyhound in the right class – they will prevail more times than they won’t. Yes the odds will be more prohbited, but in this day and age when you can have multiple bets on almost anything, a few good things can soon turn into a 10/1 treble. And yes I will go for less in form people/animals at bigger odds and get it wrong, but sometimes right.
But surely form and class are the most important aspects in any assessment of trying to find a winner, and ‘space’ is irrelevant in contecxt. Would you really go for a horse that cost £500,000, and was regarded a massive purchase for any given stable, over a horse that cost £10,000 but had the form in the book. I’m sure I wouldn’t.
And may I apologise in advance if I have got mixed up or mis read any of the comments on this thread – like I say, I am not the brightest lad in the world so just look to the obvious things in helping me find winners. I just feel some people far over complicate things, something I have done myself and fell flat on my face
Mike
Hi MikkyMo73
I consider my thought to be quite simple and elegant. My big plans require some big ideas.
byefrom
carlisle"The greatest obstacle to thinking differently is straightforwardness."
Hi MikkyMo73
I consider my thought to be quite simple and elegant. My big plans require some big ideas.
byefrom
carlisle"The greatest obstacle to thinking differently is straightforwardness."
You’re obviously someone who likes to think differently or perhaps try new idea’s and I wish you all the best.
But basically, I think I wouldn’t be far wrong in re-wording "The greatest obstacle to thinking differently is straightforwardness" TO "Don’t overlook the obvious".
Mike
Interesting ideas Carlisle. Space is a rather pleasing way of describing the dark ‘supra form’ hinterlands.
In the narrowest sense of the term ‘form study’ could be regarded as the work the punter does in order to deduce the likely winner of the race: the market fav, and Space as a catch-all term for the ‘against the crowd’ laterally thought ‘pricewise’ approach together with the filters/variables the ‘advanced’ punter employs to search for a ‘value’ superficially hidden overlaid alternative to bet against the underlaid obvious form choice.
From experience, the inherent danger with this approach is populating your Space with too much clutter i.e. implementing numerous and sometimes complex filters then trying to condense and quantify them in numerical terms to determine how they influence the ‘basic form study’ odds/chance of the horse in question.
Far better to ditch the factors that have a minimal/unproven effect on chance and utilise the few filters that your methods – and all important records – tell you have a maximal effect; these will of course vary from punter to punter, it’s doubtful any two book-beaters employ the same methodology.
For my part the only two Space filters that I actually reduce to numerical input when tissue compiling are ‘trainer trends/methods’ and ‘jockey’ with the former having by someway the greater variable range, hence influence on odds.
Of course neither of those filters are exactly revelatory which leads neatly to the crux of the matter: it’s how your chosen filters, together with good ol’ vanilla form study, are interpreted and converted to ‘true odds’ that determines who’s a winner and who ain’t.
For the record what can be loosely defined as form study accounts for at least 80% of my tissue input and the above Space filters 20% at most.
I think the “space” you are talking about is something we can’t calculate, something that all numbers, statistics or ratings can’t tell us. And it’s the thing that seperates a good horse player form a bad one. Right?
Nitro, you’re bang on with this. It’s a third dimension. Just about any competent punter can pick 2/1 winners based on factors which are obvious and readily available. And there is little wrong with that, particularly in this largely predictable flat season.
But whether or not the recognition of space separates the good from the bad is another matter. It can certainly make a pundit look inspirational when it goes to plan, like the presenter on TVG in the States who napped Giacomo at 50/1 in the 2005 Kentucky Derby based on some ephemeral pace notion which you would struggle to find in the DRF charts.
Hi MikkyMo73
what is obvious to me is that you don’t make a lot and, at the moment, either do I.
byefrom
carlisleHi gang
this space theory is in danger of getting a bit "hairy fairy", it must be rooted in logical common sense in order to be useful.
Every race is a horse examination, the question is how will they cope?
Form ratings for the Going, Distance, Course, Speed, Strike Rate etc. can all be established. It’s obvious and indisputable that a horse that has won 3 from 12 has a SR of 25%. In this way the form book can be turned into an assembly of discrete data whos interelationship, in it’s self, is enlightening. Everything else can be considered to be the space around the form.
Getting a handle on the space will be a challenge, but not impossible.
I think the closer you look at something the more you get to know and understand it. Gradually the picture becomes clearer, then ultimately you can pin a risk value to your selection. Having reached climax settled down and have a fag.
thanks from
carlisle
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Every race is a horse examination, the question is how will they cope?
Form ratings for the Going, Distance, Course, Speed, Strike Rate etc. can all be established. It’s obvious and indisputable that a horse that has won 3 from 12 has a SR of 25%. In this way the form book can be turned into an assembly of discrete data whos interelationship, in it’s self, is enlightening. Everything else can be considered to be the space around the form.
Errmm; can’t see anywhere in all the above where you actually read the form, which may be why you’re having to search for esoteric answers?
Hi reet hard
the computer must read the “nuts & bolts” of the form.
The things that the slave cannot easily deal with file under space.
[b:2t13qs5u]esoteric[/b:2t13qs5u] meant only for the initiated; private, confidential. I don’t think you have chosen the right word. I am generous, warm hearted and friendly.
thanks mate
Hi MikkyMo73
what is obvious to me is that you don’t make a lot and, at the moment, either do I.
byefrom
carlisleBut that’s probably down to me being a crap tipster, and not claiming to be a good one – whereas the reason you may not be making a lot is because you far over complicate things
Good luck
Mike
ps: And why is it obvious I don’t make a lot – a large e/w bet on Caracciola at the weekend made more than I had lost over the week.
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