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Thought of the day……

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Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 44 total)
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  • #4837
    carlisle
    Member
    • Total Posts 772

    Hi gang

    has anyone one ever considered the relationship between the actual form and the <b>space</b> around the form.

    Doing so could give rise to two separate, yet related, databases. An example of actual form would be CD, going, placings etc. and the latter being such facts as Mick Channon has good horses waiting for the better ground. Or G L Moore is known for having a right little touch.

    byefrom
    carlisle

    #111126
    TheCheekster
    Member
    • Total Posts 329

    Totally depends on the trainer. The space usually indicates what could be wrong with the horse, and/or what has been done to put it right.
    Knowing how different trainers approach these things is useful when it comes to buying/claiming a horse. Not sure it has that much relevance elsewhere.

    #111127
    carlisle
    Member
    • Total Posts 772

    Hi

    I always look at the result of a race and try to workout why the horse has won.
    The answer may lie in the formbook or within what I call the space.

    It would be useful to separate these two concepts and see when one dominates
    over the other.

    .

    #111129
    Maxilon 5
    Member
    • Total Posts 2432

    Boy, have I got myself into a mess this year by considering this question, and then, by acting on the emergent conclusions!

    They say form leads to favourites and the “space” as you put it, leads to the profits.

    I have come to the overwhelming conclusion that in the new era of information availability, either everyone can see the space around the form, thus reducing any potential profitability, or the space isn’t there in the first place leading to often catastrophic losses.

    Interesting post, Carlisle, as usual.

    #111132
    Kingston Town
    Member
    • Total Posts 1049

    What the heck is space? :shock:

    #111133
    Wallace
    Participant
    • Total Posts 862

    Concentrate on the finding the best horse on the day and for the conditions and you won’t go far wrong. All the rest including the "space" is hype and smokescreen.

    #111138
    Maxilon 5
    Member
    • Total Posts 2432

    Nonsense, Wallace.

    Reducing a complex sport like horse racing to such a basic level is like saying Wagner was a good songwriter.

    #111148
    Maxilon 5
    Member
    • Total Posts 2432

    Kingston Town,

    Space is the stuff you don’t see immediately when you read a horse’s form. It consists of the many surrounding variables which overlap the words and the numbers you see on paper, and occasionally makes the basic form variables less important, sometimes irrelevant.

    For instance, take the example of Coachhouse Lady this afternoon in the 2.10 at Redcar.

    If you followed the form – you might have been on the Henry Cecil trained winner of the race at 6/4. Congratulations, but there’s a downside. For a fiver, you make £7.50 which is probably less than half your admission fee and you probably would not remember the horses name within the hour.

    But a winner is a winner, huh!

    If you were looking for something at a bigger price for your fiver, you probably wouldn’t have considered Coachhouse Lady.

    Form figures of 50. Never threatening the leaders in either race. A slow, ponderous filly destined for oblivion would be your quite acceptable conclusion.

    Until you see the “spaceâ€Â

    #111149
    cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8799

    SPACE eh!

    Interesting concept Carlisle. But how would you measure the space, the quantity of it and/or the quality of it?

    #111150
    TheCheekster
    Member
    • Total Posts 329

    Ahh, I misunderstood what you meant by space. I take it to mean gaps in form.
    What you describe is the difference bewteen someone who understands racing, and someone who just takes form at face value.
    In my opinion, of course. :lol:

    #111152
    Kingston Town
    Member
    • Total Posts 1049

    Thanks Max – very informative and appreciated.
    Each country seems to have its own language as far as racing goes –
    I have no problems understanding Australasian and Singapore racing terminolgy but am now leaving :lol: – all I have to do is start all over again :shock:

    #111153
    Maxilon 5
    Member
    • Total Posts 2432

    Cheekster, you might be right. Only the grizzled veteran can "see" the space, which severely limits the heuristic value of the concept.

    I’ll let Carlisle continue. :D

    Best of luck on your return, Kingston.

    #111160
    Wallace
    Participant
    • Total Posts 862

    Maxilon 5, my approach is far from basic but concentrating on the identifying the horse with best recent form and well suited by the conditions has worked for me over many years.

    Most of the theories and opinions spouted by pundits on a daily basis is nothing but dross and hype.

    #111161
    Young Mick
    Member
    • Total Posts 203

    I see the space being my own conclusions to a race without the help of the market and without reading anybody elses opinions. But it is very difficult to stick with what you beleive you know to those whose job it is to pick winners.

    The other thing with the "space" is you need to keep abreast of current affairs and you need to be in the know about how trainers operate

    #111174
    Aidan
    Member
    • Total Posts 1198

    My thought today on this place is how on earth is there no mention of a Guineas favourite losing or Fabre’s Arc horse winning over a mile today?

    This place has gone very very strange recently…

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