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Hi gang
has anyone one ever considered the relationship between the actual form and the <b>space</b> around the form.
Doing so could give rise to two separate, yet related, databases. An example of actual form would be CD, going, placings etc. and the latter being such facts as Mick Channon has good horses waiting for the better ground. Or G L Moore is known for having a right little touch.
byefrom
carlisleTotally depends on the trainer. The space usually indicates what could be wrong with the horse, and/or what has been done to put it right.
Knowing how different trainers approach these things is useful when it comes to buying/claiming a horse. Not sure it has that much relevance elsewhere.Hi
I always look at the result of a race and try to workout why the horse has won.
The answer may lie in the formbook or within what I call the space.It would be useful to separate these two concepts and see when one dominates
over the other..
Boy, have I got myself into a mess this year by considering this question, and then, by acting on the emergent conclusions!
They say form leads to favourites and the “space” as you put it, leads to the profits.
I have come to the overwhelming conclusion that in the new era of information availability, either everyone can see the space around the form, thus reducing any potential profitability, or the space isn’t there in the first place leading to often catastrophic losses.
Interesting post, Carlisle, as usual.
Concentrate on the finding the best horse on the day and for the conditions and you won’t go far wrong. All the rest including the "space" is hype and smokescreen.
Nonsense, Wallace.
Reducing a complex sport like horse racing to such a basic level is like saying Wagner was a good songwriter.
Kingston Town,
Space is the stuff you don’t see immediately when you read a horse’s form. It consists of the many surrounding variables which overlap the words and the numbers you see on paper, and occasionally makes the basic form variables less important, sometimes irrelevant.
For instance, take the example of Coachhouse Lady this afternoon in the 2.10 at Redcar.
If you followed the form – you might have been on the Henry Cecil trained winner of the race at 6/4. Congratulations, but there’s a downside. For a fiver, you make £7.50 which is probably less than half your admission fee and you probably would not remember the horses name within the hour.
But a winner is a winner, huh!
If you were looking for something at a bigger price for your fiver, you probably wouldn’t have considered Coachhouse Lady.
Form figures of 50. Never threatening the leaders in either race. A slow, ponderous filly destined for oblivion would be your quite acceptable conclusion.
Until you see the “spaceâ€Â
SPACE eh!
Interesting concept Carlisle. But how would you measure the space, the quantity of it and/or the quality of it?
Ahh, I misunderstood what you meant by space. I take it to mean gaps in form.
What you describe is the difference bewteen someone who understands racing, and someone who just takes form at face value.
In my opinion, of course.
Thanks Max – very informative and appreciated.
Each country seems to have its own language as far as racing goes –
I have no problems understanding Australasian and Singapore racing terminolgy but am now leaving – all I have to do is start all over again Cheekster, you might be right. Only the grizzled veteran can "see" the space, which severely limits the heuristic value of the concept.
I’ll let Carlisle continue.
Best of luck on your return, Kingston.
Maxilon 5, my approach is far from basic but concentrating on the identifying the horse with best recent form and well suited by the conditions has worked for me over many years.
Most of the theories and opinions spouted by pundits on a daily basis is nothing but dross and hype.
I see the space being my own conclusions to a race without the help of the market and without reading anybody elses opinions. But it is very difficult to stick with what you beleive you know to those whose job it is to pick winners.
The other thing with the "space" is you need to keep abreast of current affairs and you need to be in the know about how trainers operate
My thought today on this place is how on earth is there no mention of a Guineas favourite losing or Fabre’s Arc horse winning over a mile today?
This place has gone very very strange recently…
Hi gang
it’s not that strange really, and I am sorry if I have scared anyone.
With every fibre of my being I believe that any racing result can be explained away. The notion of space has an artistic inspiration. The artist doesn’t just consider the actual form of a subject but also the space it exists within.
I feel this coexistence is very useful when trying make sense out of horse racing. If the form is dominant then the space is reduced and vice versa. I can almost see a dynamically changing picture in my minds eye.
This is just a germ of an idea, I only planted it yesterday. There have been a few trambling feet, but the sun (Maxilon 5) has been shinning.
byefrom
carlisle
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Hi gang
With every fibre of my being I believe that any racing result can be explained away.
So do I; but by using the form book much as Wallace says.
The more complex you make things, the further away you get from the fundamentals that count for so much.
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