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This is how I find selections. <br>The basis behind it.<br>first of all.<br>I never look at current form for any horse.<br>I never worry about the price.<br>I never worry if the selection is fav or the complete outsider.<br>I never worry about the draw.
I  spent a considerable time every day trawling through results and go through all the age groups and types of race I look for trainers that make an overall profit for a certain amount of seasons and whether or not there are decent overall l.s.p. made. <br>This method will produce winners up to 100/1 in some seasons and many massive priced winners over a season. I never expect every selection to win but do expect to make a l.s.p. at the end of the season. This method is nothing new but I have honed it down to a fine art. I will add every selection every day except when I am on holiday.<br>here are the selections just for the all weather tracks I will post the level stake profit or loss and all the prices will be the official s.p. price. For purposes of calculations any rule 4 will be ignored and dead heats the winnings will be halved. So all selections will be a 1 point win only at s.p. (nothing can be easier). But I can assure you it has  make an overall profit every season.<br>Aftertiming here but if you look at R.M. Cowell today dec 12 2004 at Southwell (3 year old and older horses only) show a l.sp. before today of £77.75 and a s/r of 21.54% with that age group at Southwell over past 6 seasons. Star Fern won today at 66/1.)<br>But starting from 13 dec I will list the daily selections.
here are the trainers to note stats are for the last 6 seasons<br>ling a.w<br>barron  t.d  3 yo races only  3-11  s.r 27%  l.sp 29.25<br>berry  a.   2 yo and 3 yo horses only  -27  sr18.9% +21.83<br>best  j.r.    3 y.o races only 9-66 13.64%  l.s.p. 43.00<br>boyle jr    4 yo + handicaps 7-36 19.4%  l.s.p. +61.75<br>butler  g.a.  any horse any race  73-340  21.47  l.sp. 52.75
elsworth  d.rc.  2yo races only 6-25 24%  l.s.p. +28.75<br>gosden  j.h.m.  3 y.o. and older horses only 7-32 21.8%  l.s.p. +13.13
jarvis  m.a.   any horse in any race 20-90 22.2%  ls.p. 57.16<br>loder  d.r      3 yo and older horses only 9-28  32%  l.s.p. £4.48<br>moore  g.l.    2 yo and 3 yo in sellers  3-5  60% s.r  l.sp. 4.48
<br>prescott  m    3 yo only races  9-33  27% sr  l.sp. +7.00
turnell  a.      3 yo and older horses only<br>              6-27  22.2% sr  +29.75 l.sp.<br>wall  c.f.      3 yo only races<br>             8-26   30.7% sr   l.s.p. +7.55
<br>southwell aw  <br>balding  j.  3 yo and older horses<br>29-248 s/r 11.69 l.s.p. 79.25
barron  t.d   any runner <br>103 -477 21.5% l.s.p. 137.87
bell  m.l.w   2 yo and 3 yo races only<br>12-33 s/r 37.5% l.s.p. +14.23
blockley p.a.  2 yo races only<br>6-24 s/r 25% l.s.p. 66.13
bowring  s.r  2 yo races only<br>5-27 18.52 s/r +35.58
cole  p.f.i     2 yo races only<br>5-18 27.7% s/r +9.87 l.s.p.
cowell  rhm  3 y.o. and older horses only<br>14-81 17.2% s/r l.s.p. +119.25
haggas  w.j  3 yo races only<br>5-14 35.7% s/r l.s.p. 9.9
jarvis m.a.    2 yo races only<br>4-8 50% s/r +7.38 l.s.p.
jarvis  w.    2 yo races only<br>4-12 33.3% s/r +3.90 l.s.p.
johnston  m.  3 yo maiden races only<br>7-18 38% s/r +18.09 l.s.p.
kellaway  g    2 yo races only<br>2-7 28.5% s/r +20.0 l.s.p.
<br>makin  p.j.   4 yo and older handicap races<br>8-38 21 % s/r +46.5 l.s.p.
morrison  h.    any horse in any race<br>19-71 26.7% s/r +52.5 l.sp.
muir  w      4.yo and older horses in handicaps<br>9-61 14.7% s/r l.sp. +60.0
<br>wolv aw<br>brittain  c.e.   3 yo races only<br>3-8 37.5% s/r l.s.p. +6.53
cole  pfi     4 year old and olderhorses in handicaps<br>7-29 24.1% s/r =16.75 l.s.p.
d ‘arcy  p.w.   2 and 3 yo races only<br>10-24 24% s/r l.sp. +41.75
eustace  jmp  3 yo only races<br>4-12 33.3% s/r l.s.p. +9.57
fanshawe j.r 3 yo races only<br>4-7 57.1 s/r l.s.p. +5.73
guest r. 4 yo older handicaps <br>7-26 25% s/r +26.0 l.s.p.
haggas  w    3 yo and older maiden races only<br>12-28 42.8% s/r +11.6 l.s.p.
hannon  r     2 yo races only<br>12-61 19.6% s/r +36.6 l.s.p.
hills  bw   any runner<br>39-155 25% s/r +46.76 l.s.p.
jarvis  ma   3 yo and older races<br>9-21 42% s/r l.s.p. +22.8
jarvis  w.    3 yo and older races<br>8-30 26.6% s/r l.sp. +30.5
kellaway  g.   3 yo and older maiden races only<br>8-43 18.6% s/r l.s.p. +68.50
kirk  s.    2 yo races only<br>11-41 26.9% s/r l.s.p. +41.76
loder  d.r  any horse in any race except 2 yo<br>6-18 33.35 s/r +6.3 l.s.p.
morris  d    3 yo races only<br>3-10 30% s/r +53.0 l.s.p.
noseda  j.    any horse any race<br>11-39 28.2% s/r +10.21 l.s.p.
prescott  m.   4 yo and older horses in handicaps<br>18-52 34.6% s/r +11.54% l.s.p.
most trends have not changed as they made a profit last season
all the above have made a decent ls.p over the last 6 seasons and all have a decent strike rate some may not carry on making profits in the type of race but the ones that will should more than cover any losses.
<br>there will be runs of losers and it is a system for a level stake bets so whether the price is 2/1 or 20/1 invest the same sum on every selection I will post them up before racing starts on days when there is a/w racing normally by 11 a.m
<br>(Edited by Seagull at 10:05 pm on Dec. 12, 2004)
<br>(Edited by Seagull at 12:08 pm on Jan. 16, 2005)<br>
(Edited by Seagull at 2:02 am on Jan. 17, 2005)
Hi Seagull, nice to see you over here in the mad house :biggrin:
A great insight into the sort of thing you have to do to make a buck at this game. I look forward with great interest to see you ‘in action’ so to speak. Dont want to sidetrack you but a couple of questions if I may:
Do you concentrate solely on A.W. meetings? Do you use info only once a minimum No of seasons results are included? – i.e. 3? 5? 6? What do you do if say, 3 trainers have runners in the same race that all ‘qualify’?
Again thanks for the insight, look forward to seeing your selections.
Good luck :cool: <br>
Sorry Seagull I’m concerned that I haven’t made myself clear in one of my questions. I know THIS thread is solely All Weather, but I wondered if you only used this approach on A.W. or if this is the basic approach you use in ALL your betting?
Cheers
Snowman,<br>This accounts for 99% of my betting. I have used the same method for many seasons and after testing various number of seasons to collate the results from I find 6 years is the best. Just the 1 or 2 seasons will not show anything as the stable could be out of form or indeed in form. Over 7-8 seasons shows trends that may have changed although some do never change that much. <br>I use this system for all courses both nat hunt and flat.<br>Sometimes there are several selections in the same race then I invest the same sum on every one and hope the biggest priced one wins. It also of course shows up negative trends for example a trainer may do well with 2 yo but fare poorly with older horses. Some of the selections I will be posting up will include more than 1 runner in the same race. <br>hope that helps
Good luck, Seagull. Thanks for posting system rules and the rationale behind it. I know a few people who use this approach and they seem to do quite well. As you say, be prepared for the dreaded long losing run, but with level stakes and a decent bank it shouldn’t be a problem.
Seagull,
I conjured a system earlier this year that was based on trainers performance for the current season, with a check on the last 14 days. It did quite well at first, but then started to drop away (I began posting in the Tips forum – the kiss of death!). I kept tinkering with it but it became too time consuming.
I echo Artemis’s praise regarding the detail of your posting outlining the method and premise.
Best of luck.
SEAGULL
R.M. Cowell today dec 12 2004 at Southwell (3 year old and older horses only) show a l.sp. before today of £77.75 and a s/r of 21.54% with that age group at Southwell over past 6 seasons.
<br>Because i am interested in the AW, I ran a query on my database
01/01/98-13/12/04
W 19-136 Runs<br> <br>        non hcps<br>2yo       3yo        4yo+<br>3-23      3-19        0-7
         hcp<br>2yo       3yo        4yo+<br>0-3       2-29        11-56
£ lsp  +39.15
<br>it may be more profitable to concerntrate on the 4yo+ in HCP,s
4yo+ 11-56 19.6% £ lsp +62.25<br>good luck
(Edited by empty wallet at 12:55 am on Dec. 14, 2004)<br>
(Edited by empty wallet at 1:05 am on Dec. 14, 2004)
Luckily i had the list from Seagull for the start of the A/W when the flat turf seaon finished, i’m biased right enough but Seagull does well with this method, great stuff for sticking it up Seagull. ;)
tues 14 dec<br>southwell<br>1150 kylkenny<br>120 imperial dynasty<br>220 justalord<br> little ridge<br> wolv 410 noora<br>
empty wallet<br>what database do you use?<br>I have every one and they all produce different sets of figures but with rm cowell they all show a l.s.p high enough to interest me with a decent s.r <br>did u run all the others through?<br>interested what u found<br>rgds,
(Edited by Seagull at 9:22 am on Dec. 14, 2004)
Hi Seagull,
Waded through these myself today, just to make sure I was getting the gist of it correctly, got the same selections as you (which is a good start!) but also had W’tom 2.10 Harcourt. Appears to fill the criteria, but I see trainer has another runner in there, does that alter things?
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