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This is how I do it

Home Forums Tipping and Research Systems This is how I do it

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  • #1563
    Seagull
    Member
    • Total Posts 1708

    This is how I find selections. <br>The basis behind it.<br>first of all.<br>I never look at current form for any horse.<br>I never worry about the price.<br>I never worry if the selection is fav or the complete outsider.<br>I never worry about the draw.

    I  spent a considerable time every day trawling through results and go through all the age groups and types of race I look for trainers that make an overall profit for a certain amount of seasons and whether or not there are decent overall l.s.p. made. <br>This method will produce winners up to 100/1 in some seasons and many massive priced winners over a season. I never expect every selection to win but do expect to make a l.s.p. at the end of the season. This method is nothing new but I have honed it down to a fine art. I will add every selection every day except when I am on holiday.<br>here are the selections just for the all weather tracks I will post the level stake profit or loss and all the prices will be the official s.p. price. For purposes of calculations any rule 4 will be ignored and dead heats the winnings will be halved. So all selections will be a 1 point win only at s.p. (nothing can be easier). But I can assure you it has  make an overall profit every season.<br>Aftertiming here but if you look at R.M. Cowell today dec 12 2004 at Southwell (3 year old and older horses only) show a l.sp. before today of £77.75 and a s/r of 21.54% with that age group at Southwell over past 6 seasons. Star Fern won today at 66/1.)<br>But starting from 13 dec I will list the daily selections.

    here are the trainers to note stats are for the last 6 seasons<br>ling a.w<br>barron  t.d   3 yo races only  3-11   s.r 27%  l.sp 29.25<br>berry   a.     2 yo and 3 yo horses only  -27  sr18.9% +21.83<br>best  j.r.      3 y.o races only 9-66 13.64%  l.s.p. 43.00<br>boyle jr      4 yo + handicaps 7-36 19.4%   l.s.p. +61.75<br>butler  g.a.   any horse any race   73-340  21.47  l.sp. 52.75

    elsworth   d.rc.  2yo races only 6-25 24%  l.s.p. +28.75<br>gosden  j.h.m.   3 y.o. and older horses only 7-32 21.8%  l.s.p. +13.13

    jarvis   m.a.     any horse in any race 20-90 22.2%  ls.p. 57.16<br>loder  d.r          3 yo and older horses only 9-28   32%   l.s.p. £4.48<br>moore  g.l.      2 yo and 3 yo in sellers  3-5   60% s.r   l.sp. 4.48

    <br>prescott  m      3 yo only races   9-33   27% sr  l.sp. +7.00

    turnell  a.          3 yo and older horses only<br>                          6-27   22.2% sr   +29.75 l.sp.<br>wall  c.f.           3 yo only races<br>                        8-26    30.7% sr    l.s.p. +7.55

    <br>southwell aw   <br>balding   j.   3 yo and older horses<br>29-248  s/r 11.69     l.s.p. 79.25

    barron  t.d    any runner   <br>103 -477   21.5%     l.s.p. 137.87

    bell  m.l.w     2 yo and 3 yo races only<br>12-33   s/r  37.5%     l.s.p.   +14.23

    blockley p.a.  2 yo races only<br>6-24      s/r 25%         l.s.p.  66.13

    bowring  s.r   2 yo races only<br>5-27   18.52 s/r     +35.58

    cole  p.f.i        2 yo races only<br>5-18  27.7% s/r   +9.87 l.s.p.

    cowell   rhm   3 y.o. and older horses only<br>14-81    17.2% s/r    l.s.p. +119.25  

    haggas  w.j   3 yo races only<br>5-14    35.7%   s/r      l.s.p. 9.9

    jarvis m.a.      2 yo races only<br>4-8    50% s/r      +7.38 l.s.p.

    jarvis  w.      2 yo races only<br>4-12   33.3% s/r    +3.90 l.s.p.

    johnston  m.   3 yo maiden races only<br>7-18    38% s/r     +18.09   l.s.p.

    kellaway  g      2 yo races only<br>2-7    28.5% s/r    +20.0   l.s.p.

    <br>makin  p.j.     4 yo and older handicap races<br>8-38     21 % s/r   +46.5   l.s.p.

    morrison  h.      any horse in any race<br>19-71   26.7% s/r      +52.5 l.sp.

    muir  w          4.yo and older horses in handicaps<br>9-61     14.7% s/r      l.sp. +60.0

    <br>wolv aw<br>brittain   c.e.     3 yo races only<br>3-8   37.5% s/r      l.s.p.  +6.53

    cole   pfi         4 year old and olderhorses in handicaps<br>7-29      24.1% s/r       =16.75  l.s.p.

    d ‘arcy  p.w.    2 and 3 yo races only<br>10-24    24% s/r     l.sp.  +41.75

    eustace  jmp   3 yo only races<br>4-12     33.3% s/r       l.s.p. +9.57

    fanshawe  j.r    3 yo races only<br>4-7     57.1 s/r    l.s.p. +5.73

    guest r.   4 yo older handicaps <br>7-26   25% s/r    +26.0   l.s.p.

    haggas  w      3 yo and older maiden races only<br>12-28    42.8%  s/r       +11.6  l.s.p.

    hannon  r        2 yo races only<br>12-61     19.6% s/r       +36.6   l.s.p.

    hills  bw    any runner<br>39-155    25% s/r         +46.76   l.s.p.

    jarvis  ma     3 yo and older races<br>9-21       42%   s/r       l.s.p. +22.8

    jarvis  w.      3 yo and older races<br>8-30      26.6% s/r     l.sp. +30.5

    kellaway  g.    3 yo and older maiden races only<br>8-43     18.6% s/r     l.s.p. +68.50

    kirk   s.       2 yo races only<br>11-41      26.9% s/r       l.s.p. +41.76

    loder  d.r   any horse in any race except 2 yo<br>6-18     33.35 s/r    +6.3   l.s.p.

    morris  d       3 yo races only<br>3-10      30% s/r      +53.0 l.s.p.

    noseda  j.       any horse   any race<br>11-39      28.2% s/r       +10.21 l.s.p.

    prescott  m.    4 yo and older horses in handicaps<br>18-52       34.6% s/r      +11.54%   l.s.p.

    most trends have not changed as they made a profit last season

    all the above have made a decent ls.p over the last 6 seasons and all have a decent strike rate some may not carry on making profits in the type of race but the ones that will should more than cover any losses.

    <br>there will be runs of losers and it is a system for a level stake bets so whether the price is 2/1 or 20/1 invest the same sum on every selection I will post them up before racing starts on days when there is a/w racing normally by 11 a.m

    <br>(Edited by Seagull at 10:05 pm on Dec. 12, 2004)

    <br>(Edited by Seagull at 12:08 pm on Jan. 16, 2005)<br>

    (Edited by Seagull at 2:02 am on Jan. 17, 2005)

    #56282
    snowman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 554

    Hi Seagull, nice to see you over here in the mad house :biggrin:

    A great insight into the sort of thing you have to do to make a buck at this game. I look forward with great interest to see you ‘in action’ so to speak. Dont want to sidetrack you but a couple of questions if I may:

    Do you concentrate solely on A.W. meetings? Do you use info only once a minimum No of seasons results are included? – i.e. 3? 5? 6? What do you do if say, 3 trainers have runners in the same race that all ‘qualify’?

    Again thanks for the insight, look forward to seeing your selections.

    Good luck :cool: <br>

    #56285
    snowman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 554

    Sorry Seagull I’m concerned that I haven’t made myself clear in one of my questions. I know THIS thread is solely All Weather, but I wondered if you only used this approach on A.W. or if this is the basic approach you use in ALL your betting?

    Cheers

    #56286
    Seagull
    Member
    • Total Posts 1708

    Snowman,<br>This accounts for 99% of my betting. I have used the same method for many seasons and after testing various number of seasons to collate the results from I find 6 years is the best. Just the 1 or 2  seasons will not show anything as the stable could be out of form or indeed in form. Over 7-8 seasons shows trends that may have changed although some do never change that much. <br>I use this system  for all courses both nat hunt and flat.<br>Sometimes there are several selections in the same race then I invest the same sum on every one and hope the biggest priced one wins. It also of course shows up negative trends for example a trainer may do well with 2 yo but fare poorly with older horses. Some of the selections I will be posting up will include more than 1 runner in the same race. <br>hope that helps

    #56287
    snowman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 554

    It does indeed. Thanks very much and once again – very good luck :cool:

    #56288
    MatronMatron
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5828

    Good luck Seagull – although not really needed.;)

    Regards- Matron<br>:cool:

    #56289
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Good luck, Seagull. Thanks for posting system rules and the rationale behind it. I know a few people who use this approach and they seem to do quite well. As you say, be prepared for the dreaded long losing run, but with level stakes and a decent bank it shouldn’t be a problem.

    #56290
    Seagull
    Member
    • Total Posts 1708

    MONDAY 13 TH DEC<br>No selections.<br>s.r 0-0    ls.p. level

    #56291
    LookingForAWinner
    Member
    • Total Posts 115

    Seagull,

    I conjured a system earlier this year that was based on trainers performance for the current season, with a check on the last 14 days.  It did quite well at first, but then started to drop away (I began posting in the Tips forum – the kiss of death!).  I kept tinkering with it but it became too time consuming.

    I echo Artemis’s praise regarding the detail of your posting outlining the method and premise.

    Best of luck.

    #56292
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    Cracking post Seagull … :cool:

    #56293
    empty walletempty wallet
    Member
    • Total Posts 1631

    SEAGULL

    R.M. Cowell today dec 12 2004 at Southwell (3 year old and older horses only) show a l.sp. before today of £77.75 and a s/r of 21.54% with that age group at Southwell over past 6 seasons.

    <br>Because i am interested in the AW, I ran a query on my database

    01/01/98-13/12/04

    W 19-136 Runs<br> <br>               non hcps<br>2yo             3yo              4yo+<br>3-23          3-19              0-7

                      hcp<br>2yo            3yo               4yo+<br>0-3            2-29              11-56

    £ lsp  +39.15

    <br>it may be more profitable to concerntrate on the 4yo+ in HCP,s

    4yo+ 11-56  19.6% £ lsp  +62.25<br>good luck

    (Edited by empty wallet at 12:55 am on Dec. 14, 2004)<br>

    (Edited by empty wallet at 1:05 am on Dec. 14, 2004)

    #56294
    phunter
    Member
    • Total Posts 125

    Luckily i had the list from Seagull for the start of the A/W when the flat turf seaon finished, i’m biased right enough but Seagull does well with this method, great stuff for sticking it up Seagull. ;)

    #56295
    Seagull
    Member
    • Total Posts 1708

    tues 14 dec<br>southwell<br>1150     kylkenny<br>120       imperial dynasty<br>220       justalord<br>             little ridge<br> wolv   410   noora<br>

    #56296
    Seagull
    Member
    • Total Posts 1708

    empty wallet<br>what database do you use?<br>I have every one and they all produce different sets of figures but with rm cowell they all show a l.s.p high enough to interest me with a decent s.r <br>did u run all the others through?<br>interested what u found<br>rgds,

    (Edited by Seagull at 9:22 am on Dec. 14, 2004)

    #56297
    snowman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 554

    Hi Seagull,

    Waded through these myself today, just to make sure I was getting the gist of it correctly, got the same selections as you (which is a good start!) but also had W’tom 2.10 Harcourt. Appears to fill the criteria, but I see trainer has another runner in there, does that alter things?

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