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third in the ODDS

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  • #1261
    germanGuy
    Member
    • Total Posts 22

    OK, there is somthing that impressed me and i will tell you:

    Rules:<br>1) No Handicap or Listed Races(or above)<br>2) Bet the THIRD Fav in the LIVE  ODD Market (last ODD at race start counted), means for example:<br>1. 9/1   2. 5/1  3. Even  4. 12/1<br>You have to bet Win or Place the number 1 here (9/1) cause its third in odds

    <br>Here are the results of Sunday and Monday with my filter:

    3rd favorit

    Sunday

    Chester<br>2. Placed @ 11/1<br>Other Races Handicap or Listed

    Market Rasen<br>2. WIN    @ 13/2<br>3. Losed<br>6. Placed @  4/1<br>Other Races Handicap or Listed

    Newbury<br>1. Placed @  5/1<br>2. WIN    @ 10/1<br>6. Placed @  3/1<br>Other Races Handicap or Listed

    1 point/(win)bet  Sunday +11.5   overall:  +11.5

    Monday

    Carlisle <br>2. Losed<br>4. Placed @  8/1<br>6. Placed @  7/1<br>Other Races Handicap or Listed

    Newton Abbot<br>2  WIN    @ 12/1<br>3. Placed @  4/1<br>4. Losed<br>Other Races Handicap or Listed

    Ripon<br>5. Placed @  8/1<br>6. WIN    @  7/1<br>Other Races Handicap or Listed

    Windsor<br>3. Placed @  4/1<br>4. Placed @ 16/1<br>5. Losed<br>Other Races Handicap or Listed

    1 point/(win)bet  Monday +10.0   overall:  +21.5

    (Edited by germanGuy at 12:45 pm on Aug. 6, 2003)

    <br>(Edited by germanGuy at 3:36 am on Aug. 10, 2003)<br>

    (Edited by germanGuy at 4:35 am on Aug. 11, 2003)

    #49954
    germanGuy
    Member
    • Total Posts 22

    Tuesday

    Bath<br>1. Placed  @  6/1<br>4. WIN     @  4/1<br>5. Placed  @  8/1<br>Other Races Handicap or Listed

    Catterick  <br>1. WIN     @  4/1<br>2. Losed<br>4. Placed  @  5/1<br>Other Races Handicap or Listed

    <br>1 point/(win)bet  Tuesday +4.0   overall:  +25.5

    (Edited by germanGuy at 12:47 pm on Aug. 6, 2003)

    #49955
    MatronMatron
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5828

    Good luck with your system germanGuy.

    Nice results so far.

    Regards – Matron<br>:cool:

    #49956
    germanGuy
    Member
    • Total Posts 22

    I will watch and post results a few days and will think about additional filters to max the profit.

    #49958
    snowman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 554

    German Guy do you need a filter? I think 25.5 pts in 3 days is VERY good!

    It might be better just to run this for a while. When you have a lot of information you can look back and see if there are any particular types of races where you lost more often than average. Maybe then you could think about a filter.

    Good luck with this – excellent results so far.

    #49959
    andydawes
    Member
    • Total Posts 210

    Sehr guter anfang mein Deutcher freund.

    Behalten sie auf die gute arbeit.

    #49960
    germanGuy
    Member
    • Total Posts 22

    Wednesday

    Brighton<br>1. Placed   4/1<br>2. L<br>Other Races Handicap or Listed

    Newcastle<br>1. WIN       4/1<br>2. L<br>4. Placed       50/1<br>5. L<br>Other Races Handicap or Listed

    Pontefract<br>2. L<br>4. Placed        7/1<br>6. L<br>Other Races Handicap or Listed

    <br>Yarmouth<br>2. Placed        5/1<br>3. Placed        5/1<br>5. Placed        7/1<br>Other Races Handicap or Listed

    Kempton<br>2. Placed        4/1<br>3. L<br>5. WIN          14/1<br>Other Races Handicap or Listed

    1 point/(win)bet  Wednesday +5.0   overall:  +30.5

    #49962
    david2
    Participant
    • Total Posts 60

    german guy, sure it’s a nice system but I’ve spotted at least two instances today where you have "placed" horses as third (in a seven runner field, 7.45 Yarm) plus your 50/1 was third in a four runner (newc. 4.05).

    David

    #49963
    germanGuy
    Member
    • Total Posts 22

    Yes 2 or 3  is Place, not always the place BET of course(if less then 8 runners), thats not important, cause i run it as WIN Bet System.

    But if u want, i will give additional info for the Place-Betting Guys in Future.<br>

    (Edited by germanGuy at 9:29 pm on Aug. 6, 2003)

    #49965
    snowman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 554

    Hi Germanguy

    Much simpler if you keep it win only. Either your selection wins or it loses, even if it finishes 2nd or 3rd just count it as a loser.

    #49966
    germanGuy
    Member
    • Total Posts 22

    Winning and Losings by Kind of Race:

    Novice Hurdle<br>+4.5  (3 races)

    Beginners’ Chase <br>-2.0  (2 races)

    Other Hurdle<br>+12.0 (1 races)

    2y-only Maiden Stakes<br>+3.0  (7 races)

    Other 2y-only<br>+16.0 (8 races)

    3y-only Maiden Stakes<br>-5.0  (5 races)

    Other 3y-only<br>-2.0  (2 races)

    3y and older Maiden Stakes<br>-3.0  (3 races)

    Other Races (3y and older)<br>+7.0  (8 races)

    <br>OVERALL   +30.5

    #49968
    germanGuy
    Member
    • Total Posts 22

    Winnings and Losings by Kind of First Fav:

    Below Even:      +14.5<br>Even or above:  +16.0

    #49969
    germanGuy
    Member
    • Total Posts 22

    Only 2.0 plus today, cause very many 2nd places :)

    Brighton<br>1. 2nd  16/1<br>5. WIN   9/2<br>Other Races Handicap or Listed

    Chepstow<br>2. L<br>3. L<br>4. L<br>6. WIN   4/1<br>Other Races Handicap or Listed

    Haydock<br>2. WIN  11/2<br>4. 2nd   6/1<br>6. 3rd  20/1<br>Other Races Handicap or Listed

    Uttoxeter<br>1. L<br>4. 2nd   9/1<br>5. 2nd   4/1<br>Other Races Handicap or Listed

    Wolverhampton<br>2. L<br>4. 2nd   5/1<br>5. 2nd   7/2<br>Other Races Handicap or Listed

    Novice Hurdle                  +2.5  ( 5 races)<br>Beginners’ Chase             -3.0  ( 3 races)<br>Other Hurdle                 +12.0  ( 1 races)<br>2y-only Maiden Stakes    +0.5  (10 races)<br>Other 2y-only                +13.0  (11 races)<br>3y-only Maiden Stakes     -0.5  ( 7 races)<br>Other 3y-only                   -2.5  ( 2 races)<br>3y and older Maiden Stakes+0.0  ( 5 races)<br>Other Races (3y and older)+10.5  (10 races)<br>OVERALL   +32.5

    Below Even Fav<br>+8.5<br>Even or above Fav<br>+24.0<br>OVERALL   +32.5

    Winnings and Loses by Course<br>Bath  +2.0<br>Carlisle  -3.0<br>Catterick +2.0<br>Chepstow  +1.0<br>Chester -1.0<br>Haydock  +3.5<br>Kempton  +12.0<br>Market Rasen  +4.5<br>Newbury  +8.0<br>Newcastle  +1.0<br>Newton Abbot  +10.0<br>Pontefract  -3.0<br>Ripon  +6.0<br>Uttoxeter  -3.0<br>Windsor -3.0<br>Wolverhampton  -3.0<br>Yarmouth -3.0

    Thursday +2.0   Overall +32.5

    (Edited by germanGuy at 1:07 am on Aug. 8, 2003)

    #49971
    germanGuy
    Member
    • Total Posts 22

    Hmm, do u think that are enough statistics to add filters in future, or should i collect more kind of data?  What is interesting? <br> <br>If yes, i need some help :biggrin:  :cool: <br>

    (Edited by germanGuy at 1:19 am on Aug. 8, 2003)

    #49973
    snowman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 554

    Hi Germanguy,

    I think everyone would agree you have plenty of categories for your statistics such as type of race, age of horse, sp of selection and so on. What you need now is just lots more results to put in those categories.

    For example you are + 12.0 in ‘other hurdle’ category but this is achieved after only one race in this category.

    So you just need results from lots more days to add to your information, if you see a definite pattern then it may be the right time to add a filter.

    For now you are doing VERY well your results are excellent I hope you are backing these and making some profit.

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