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With my reputaion as a genius at risk here’s my take which will rattle a few cages.
We are often fooled into thinking we have seen something special. Sometimes we get it right sometimes we get it wrong.
You couldn’t fault anyone for thinking Snow Fairy is exceptional.
I backed her for plenty when she won in Ireland and when you make a right few quid and they win like she did it takes a lot of bottle to desert them.
My problem with her is she’s like a fairy story come true and these bubbles are very often burst when the step up in class. The step up she is taking looks massive and I think her bubble will be well and truly burst.
Sariska and Midday are without doubt top class fillies and it’s hard to forget just how easily Sariska beat Midday in the Irish Oak with Spencer laughing all the way to the line.
However since then Sariska has been down right awful and unless Michael Bell has found out what has been ailing her I think she looks very beatable.
She ran a stinker behind Dar Re Me in this race last year, the did just as badly behind Twice Over in the Champion Stakes.
She managed to win first time out this season beating Midday but that day Midday came under pressure way to early to take the final result seriously.
What got me about that race was Sariska showed the same inability to quicken when she came off the bridle that she showed agianst Dar Re Me.
She’s then taken on Fame and glory again coming there like she is ready to take off and win her race when all of a sudden she does the same thing again. It’s pretty obvious Fame and Glory lacks a turn of foot expected from the best Group 1 horses yet he left her for dead…….to my eye Fame and Glory never quickened that much Sariska stopped like shot and was going up and down on the same spot.
That’s not to say she couldn’t win this without comng off the bridle but Henry Cecil is such a master and getting his best horses spot on for the big ones that I’m pretty certain Midday will be challenging hard and fast in the latter stages.
If as I suspect there is a chink in Sariska’s armour the he won’t get any favours from Midday who showed great fighting qualities in her latest run and proved beyond dout she can quicken when required.
The ground was awful at the Curragh when Spencer did his laurel and Hardy act and subsequent events have showed Sariska may have been somewhat flattered.
Way too often we keep making excuses for horses and Sariska is just one excuse after another…she travels better than any horse in training but she just keeps finding nothing.
That said this race could go to any of the 3 principals but I’m siding with Middday as I think she’s classier than Snow Fairy and much more genuine than Sariska.
Midday
to take the bacon home for Henry
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I think Sariska is probably nigh-on unbeatable on soft ground, but she just doesn’t show the same level of ability on a faster surface.
Midday
was conceding 5lb to Michael Bell’s filly in the Middleton and ran incredibly well given that she didn’t look happy fully four furlongs out. She displayed both a turn of foot and a superb attitude when getting the better of Stacelita at Goodwood, and back up to a more suitable trip is going to be hellishly difficult to beat.
I’m of the belief that the current 5/2 is almost too good to be true (Barshiba should tee the race up nicely).
Thats what i like to read Fist, good reasoning,you offer a fine perspective of the 3 principles.Your opinion of
Sariska
is almost accurate about her finding little in her races but she hasn"t been 100% once this year and tomorrow she still wont be,having said that she is being trained for one race this year and thats the Arc!
Midday
is exposed but she will out battle anything if it comes to fighting out the finish. My idea of the winner is
Snow Fairy
,i still dont think we have seen the best of her and if i knew she was being aimed at the St Leger i would lump on to recoup my likely losses on Total Command,she would leave Rewilding running on the spot!
Fist you are off yer head.
Poor performance against an Irish derby winning colt my arse.
Midday who I will desert after a good bet last time wont get 12f here and will be lucky to be placed, Brighton or yarmouth I would give her half a chance.
Theres nowt in her form to suggest 12 will improve her and nowt in her breeding.
I think the bookmakers have this race dead right at the moment. Like to have a bet in the race but don’t make anything value.
Value Is EverythingIf any of the big 3 fail to bring their A game then Barshiba may have a squeak of nicking a place at 40’s…
She was only just over 2 lengths behind Sariska in this race last year and Sariska was getting the 3yo weight allowance that day..
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Fist you are off yer head.
Poor performance against an Irish derby winning colt my [expletive].
Midday who I will desert after a good bet last time wont get 12f here and will be lucky to be placed, Brighton or yarmouth I would give her half a chance.
Theres nowt in her form to suggest 12 will improve her and nowt in her breeding.
Breeding? I’d rather use my eyes thanks.
When you look back at the Oaks Midday was 2 1/2 lengths ahead of Sariska before getting trapped behind the back peddling Perfect Truth which resulted in Tom Queally having to stop riding and then having to take a pull. Sariska on the otherhand got a clear run and came off the bend with a 1 1/2 length advantage on Midday.
It’s fine to say Epsom isn’t as tough as York but no matter how you look at it Midday was staying on better and gaining with every stride on Sariska. I’d worry more about Sariska getting the trip here if she comes off the bridle than I would Midday on the evidence of her last win…..she was stopping like shot over 10f and an unfit looking Midday was gaining with every stride.
The big question here is how strong will the pace be? Barshiba has won races by setting a strong pace but if she tries to run this lot into the ground she’ll cut her own throat…to have any chance she has to keep something in reserve and not go off like a scalded cat.
Unless David Elsworth is suffering from Desertitis I think it will be steady away and try and increase the tempo gradually keeping something in reserve and hopefully hang on for a place.
There’s no other front runners here and no planted pacemakers unless Mr Surror has some wierd pointless plan up his sleeve, so I doubt if stamina will be that big an issue.
My suggestion to you is take your betting ticket and hold it between your thumb and forefinger and if Sariska comes off the bridle, wipe you backside with it which seems to be affecting the way your head works
Mines is just fine and dandy.Your argument is like a colander Fist, full of holes.Your wallet will have leaked as well come 3:31
Of course Midday was gaining on Sariska over 10f, that,s not her trip. She still couldn’t beat her. The only thing that Midday has in hand over Sariska Is a big bloody list of excuses to her name, most trotted out by you on here.Do you know what todays excuse is? She doesn,t get the trip she wants 10f.
Some good points made, but a lot of absolute B……. talked about staying the trip, by people who should know better.
Midday proved in the Oaks she stays 1m4f well. At that time it was her best performance, so there’s a chance she might improve back over it.
Sariska might not stay???? Of course she’ll stay. You don’t win a Group 1 on heavy ground on the bridle, without staying the trip. Though it’s true she doesn’t always find that much under pressure. That’s just her, nothing to do with not staying the trip.
Read the form book.
May the best horse win.
Value Is EverythingI like Snow Fairy a lot in this; and with the 3 year olds having by far the best success rate in the race, I reckon she will be hard to beat.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
This years 3-Y-Old crop look well below standard
No 3-Y-Old has won a Group race beyond 8 furlongs against older horses in The UK or Ireland this season, only three such races at any distance has been won by a 3-Y-Old which is a long, long way below average. Even Dick Turpin failed to make the frame against the older horsesToday, Midday will beat Sariska, who will beat Snow Fairy, who will beat the rest.
Cheers before and after the race.I think the bookmakers have this race dead right at the moment. Like to have a bet in the race but don’t make anything value.
With Snow Fairy drifting out to 7/2, have now backed her each way.
My 100% book:
Sariska 11/4, Midday 11/4, Snow Fairy 3/1, Meeznah 14/1, Hibaayeb 20/1, Eleanora Duse 20/1, Flying Cloud 40/1, Barshiba 100/1.Value Is EverythingForm, facts and relevance. It was heavy in the Irish Oaks when Sariska easily beat Midday. It will not be heavy at York today, so ignore that result. It was good at Epsom over 12 furlongs when Sariska beat Midday by a head at level weights. It was good-to-firm at York over 10 furlongs when Sariska beat Midday one-and-three-quarter lengths when receiving five pounds. On today’s ground, over today’s trip, the form says there will be hardly anything between them.
There is no direct line of form between this years Oaks fillies and last years. Snow Fairy has done this year what Sariska did last year, but the fillies she beat in the Epsom Oaks have not gone on to frank the form. She might be as good as Sariska, but it doesn’t look so yet. Her price is too short on what we know at present.
Midday and Sariska should be within a head of each other today. I would take the one at the longer price.
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Sariska is a place lay.
Snow Fairy to win Barshiba each-way.
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Shall I go first.
Midday beat everything well and her speed over the distance was very impressive. I’d heard Sariska was playing up and that’s why I place layed her and become a very rich man.
Genuinely sorry she hasn’t left the stalls though for everyone who backed her.
*Glad that Paddy Power are refunding bets on her*
before and after the race.
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