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Fair point Ginger, it’s just not something I’m keen on and it may bolster the
impression that there isn’t the appetite for independance when in fact that isn’t
necessarily the case.I don’t see Scotland leaving the Uk as inevitable either, but I do see a 2nd referendum
as inevitable. At least you can’t vote tactically in a referendum, you’re either for it
or against it.Sturgeon has to be very careful about forcing another referendum without the UK’s approval. Doing so will alienate the Spanish government. As it’ll be seen as encouraging Catalonia to do the same.
Without Spanish consent an Independent Scotland has no chance of joining the EU.
Value Is EverythingGinge, there is no chance of Sturgeon running a referendum without being given
authority to do it, she has been crystal clear on that. She is well aware that
doing so would bring a veto from Spain in any attempt to rejoin the EU.My definition of being “forced” is if Sturgeon calls for a second referendum and dares the UK government to go to the Supreme Court. As I understand it’s a threat she’s far from ruled out and if that happens expect Spain’s EU veto on Scotland rejoining..
Value Is EverythingYes that’s into uncharted territory there Ginge. I dare say there would be a bit of
under the table briefing with the Spanish before making any move that would threaten
re-enty to the EU. She obviously hopes that the pressure will increase on Boris to
give the go ahead, although how that works out I’m not sure.Boris will bluff ….that’s his way and it’s worked well for him so far , forget wolf of wallstreet he,s bluff of downing Street
Sitting on the fence, I’d say Nicola Sturgeon’s problem at the moment is that polls suggest that the future of Scotland would be in the hands of the ‘Undecided’, with the No support slightly higher than the Yes. Bearing in mind what passes for government from Westminster right now I would have expected polls to show a significant lead for Yes. Scottish elections ended up pretty much ‘as you were’ in terms of share of the vote with a minor swing to SNP in terms of seats.
Regarding the Spanish veto on Scottish EU membership, in such circumstances France and/or Germany may exercise the ‘shut up’ option as they pretty much did for Brexit and the Gibraltar issue.
The loser always claims any election was based on lies, Richard.
Indeed. Even in your hypothetical example. Although in most cases it’s a fact rather than a claim.
As for the Spanish veto, I’ve no idea what all the fuss is about. EU countries just do what Brussels tells them to don’t they?
At the time of the Independence Referendum Scotland’s best chance of remaining in the EU was to remain with the UK, Richard. That was not a lie, it was true.
At the time of the Scottish Referendum public opinion had a large majority for the UK staying in the EU. Therefore (at that time) there was a large probability of Scotland remaining inside the EU with the rest of the UK… And it was also known that if Scotland became independent it: Would need to first apply for EU membership and may well not even get that membership… And / or would need to wait a hell of a long time for EU membership. Therefore, at that time Scotland’s best chance of remaining in the EU was to vote to remain in the UK..
Just because circumstances change does not mean it was a lie.
Indeed, for people to call it a lie is the lie.In a two horse race if I said your best chance of backing the winner is to back the long odds-on favourite… and then the outsider wins… Does not mean I lied.
It also does not mean the race should be re-run.
Value Is EverythingI have been a long time lurker to the forum through my love of racing and also hoping to pick up the odd decent tip but I had no intention of being a contributor as that isn’t really my thing. After reading this topic I wanted to give a bit of perspective as a working class Scot. I have craved independence for my country all my adult life and although the vote in 2014 didn’t go the way I hoped it was clear from the spread of the vote generation wise that independence is a certainty in time.
I am still 100% certain that independence will come but I have reservations about the timing now. I don’t believe Nicola Sturgeon has the heart for the fight that will come and it’s become a bit of a cliche up here but she’s become a bit of a career politician and has taken her eye off the independence cause. Brexit was so unpopular in Scotland and still is that anyone with drive of an early Salmond would have had Independence at the forefront of everything the Party did and the Polls would of reflected this in spades. The passion in the population is there and just need re ignited, we just have to be very careful to wait for the right time and the right person to take us there.Welcome to the forum My Best Valentine.
“Generation-wise” it might seem Independence is a certainty, with the youth vote so pro Independence. You could say generation-wise Racing is doomed… But it’s always been like that, Racing is generally an older person’s sport… And generation-wise generally in politics people tend to go progressively towards the right, generally think more towards the long term, are generally more sceptical, generally see more negatives and generally history means more to them… So there is no certainty the younger generation won’t change their minds as they grow older (and I’d have to say wiser).Unlike what the SNP portrays – it is still a fact that the silent majority of Scots still vote for Unionist parties. Do think they need to find their voice if Scotland is to remain in the Union. Are they frightened of speaking out?
Noticable the areas voting more for the union are those having more to do with the union – the borders… And – even more so – the Scots who the SNP didn’t even allow a vote in the last Referendum… Scots working in the rest of the uk.
Strange how the SNP allows 16 and 17 year olds and refugees a vote- everyone that is likely to vote for the SNP / independence – and yet stops Scots working in the UK from having a vote.
Value Is EverythingSome interesting points Ginger. It is true that unionists parties had a very tiny majority but amongst the 22 odd percent that voted Labour there is a lot of independence votes. Why would Scots living out of Scotland get a vote? Do UK expats get a vote in general elections? The votes for 16 and 17 years old is also very interesting as the engagement from this age range has been fantastic. My son is 16 and is very engaged in politics and took his right to vote very seriously. The point about refugees is seriously pathetic as you get to vote in Scotland the same as England if registered. Its **** like this that will drive the independence vote so don’t stop.
Ruling parties will always do whatever they can to maximise their vote. It’s one of the reasons we’ll never see the back of the ridiculous FPTP system because it nearly always suits those in charge. As it happens the SNP benefits from this too.
The UK Government is currently planning on voter suppression by requiring photo ID. Would anyone like to guess which party will benefit from this? The idea has come about based on single digit numbers of voter fruad cases.
If you’re from abroad you can’t vote in general elections but you can vote in the meaningless local elections we just had. Seems arbitrary to me and they are still quite happy to take their taxes despite not giving them a say. Probably quite common the world over but entirely wrong in my view.
UK migrants can vote for 15 years after they move away although I think I’ve heard this time limit may be scrapped.
“Why would Scots living out of Scotland get a vote”?
Ummmm, because they’re Scots.
Do you not regard Scots living outside Scotland as Scottish, MBV?
Don’t you think Scots living outside Scotland care about Scotland?
Are they now stateless?
Can understand why Ms Begum’s citizenship has been withdrawn; but to effectively withdraw citizenship just for living in England seems crazy to me.“Do UK expats get a vote in general elections?”
Yes – as I understand – UK expats can vote in UK general elections if registering, which was why I was so surprised they were stopped from voting in the Scottish Referendum.“the point about refugees is seriously pathetic as you get to vote in Scotland the same as England if registered. Its **** like this that will drive the independence vote so don’t stop”.
What I said is nothing against refugees. Just think it strange: Allowing refugees – who’ve not lived long at all in Scotland – a vote, whilst Scots who were born in Scotland and may well have lived in Scotland most of their lives but are now currently living in England, Wales or Northern Ireland are refused a vote in the Referendum.
Value Is EverythingI genuinely didn’t realise that uk expats get a vote. Pretty bizarre that people are getting a vote on something that isn’t affecting their day to day living. Seriously wrong in my opinion.
“It is true that unionists parties had a very tiny majority but amongst the 22 odd percent that voted Labour there is a lot of independence votes. The votes for 16 and 17 years old is also very interesting as the engagement from this age range has been fantastic. My son is 16 and is very engaged in politics and took his right to vote very seriously”.
Some have also voted SNP that were not for independence. Sturgeon even said Scots should vote SNP even if not for independence, yet are now claiming all their votes go towards a mandate for a referendum. So it happens both ways and yet another reason why – in a basic 50 – 50 split – the recent election can not be used as a mandate for a second referendum in seven years.
No doubt some 16 year olds like your son are interested in politics, good on him.
But a large percentage are simply not… And even the ones that are, how many of them understand the economic implications? imo A comparatively small minority.Value Is EverythingAs I earlier stated I don’t think the time is right for the indy ref 2. We need fresh impetus as in a new leader or the emergence of an alternative indy party. I do think you are doing the 16-17 age band an injustice though as large percentages of all age bands fail to understand the economic implications and I have more concern about how the older demographic decide to vote than the younger end.
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