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Well, that woke me up. Welcome to the forum and it would be great if you kept us up to speed with how well (wink, wink) your horse is, please.
Hello Ken
Thanks for your welcome. I will try, but I’m not the greatest tipster. The only time I was convinced he’d win was the one time he hasn’t made the frame so far!!
:mrgreen:
I didn’t back him myself when he won at Aintree last year!
The mind bouggles…
Welcome to the forum bouggler owner – I’m sure he’ll have a few more of us on his side next time. Best of luck with Aintree but why not Cheltenham?
He was going like a winner — in my opinion! — at Cheltenham in the Cleeve Hurdle, then didn’t get up the hill.
The only other option at the Festival is the Pertemps final and his rating means he’d have top weight as well as the hill to cope with.
According to the jockey at Haydock, he does stay three miles, but he said possibly not at Cheltenham, so Aintree’s flat track should suit him better.
If he doesn’t go novice chasing next season, maybe he’ll develop a bit more stamina and the World Hurdle will be on the agenda. I’m sure Emma (Lavelle) is thinking about next year already.
Quite honestly, he’s done so much more than we ever dreamed that anything else is a bonus.
He was going like a winner — in my opinion! — at Cheltenham in the Cleeve Hurdle, then didn’t get up the hill.
The only other option at the Festival is the Pertemps final and his rating means he’d have top weight as well as the hill to cope with.
According to the jockey at Haydock, he does stay three miles, but he said possibly not at Cheltenham, so Aintree’s flat track should suit him better.
If he doesn’t go novice chasing next season, maybe he’ll develop a bit more stamina and the World Hurdle will be on the agenda. I’m sure Emma (Lavelle) is thinking about next year already.
Quite honestly, he’s done so much more than we ever dreamed that anything else is a bonus.
That was my opinion when i placed my bet on him yesterday. All the best with him , he seems a really genuine horse . I hope he stays sound for many seasons to come.
The only other option at the Festival is the Pertemps final and his rating means he’d have top weight as well as the hill to cope with.
Very likely. Moreover, Bouggler’s current mark of 150 has been successfully defied only once in the last 15 renewals of the Pertemps (under its various guises), so it’d be a tough ask on that basis, if not quite an impossible one.
The other target other than Aintree which leapt to mind was the long distance hurdle back at Haydock on Swinton day, though there again I suspect you might have to schlepp top weight round judged on historical precedent.
Very best of luck whatever you choose to aim him at next.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Very likely. Moreover, Bouggler’s current mark of 150 has been successfully defied only once in the last 15 renewals of the Pertemps (under its various guises), so it’d be a tough ask on that basis, if not quite an impossible one.
gc
How many horses rated 150 and above would you have expected to have won the race over that period?
Very likely. Moreover, Bouggler’s current mark of 150 has been successfully defied only once in the last 15 renewals of the Pertemps (under its various guises), so it’d be a tough ask on that basis, if not quite an impossible one.
gc
How many horses rated 150 and above would you have expected to have won the race over that period?
Exactly Yeats,
It is how well a horse is handicapped (judged against others in the race) that matters. Not what actual weight is carried. Bouggler (imo) has more improvement in him and could still be well handicapped. Most horses rated 150 that run in these handicaps are exposed types or on the downgrade, not up to running in Grade 1’s anymore. If he were mine, I’d go for the Coral Cup. Travels well enough to suggest a truly run, stamina sapping 2m4f110y will suit him. Could even improve for it as barely stays 3m. Though jumping will be tested more at a shorter trip.
Noticed in the past, horses who often make mistakes do better going around the outer, with an uninterupted view of the hurdle.Emma is my local trainer, good luck Bouggler, wherever you decide to go.
Value Is EverythingHow many horses rated 150 and above would you have expected to have won the race over that period?
Exactly Yeats,
It is how well a horse is handicapped (judged against others in the race) that matters.Gentlemen, herewith all 150+ rated animals to have run in the Pertemps Final or its antecedents 1994-2009, inclusive of rating, SP (and relative position in the market) and eventual finishing position.
Where it should be "expected" each such animal will finish is in the eye of the beholder, as my expectations may differ from yours and the next man’s, but do feel free to work through those previous races and decide whether any, all, none or fewer had any feasible chance of winning.
All I would note is that the six qualifiers from the last three renewals have been no worse than halfway down the betting and in one case was sent off favourite; and that half of this sextet was entering the race having recorded a career-best hurdles RPR on its previous outing.
Have fun.
gc
2009
P’Tit Fute, OR 150, 11-1 7f, 8-222008
Footy Facts, OR 150, 18-1 j10f, 13-242007
Adamant Approach, OR151, 16-1 j11f, 3-24
Rhinestone Cowboy, OR157, 12-1 6f, 9-24
Kadoun, OR150, 13-2FAV, 18-24
Millenium Royal, OR157, j7f, 20-242002
Historic, OR150, 33-1 j17f, 18-242000
Moorish, OR160, 40-1 j19f, PU-241999
Pharanear, OR157, 16-1 j10f, 7-24
Torboy, OR151, 25-1 j12f, PU-241998
Allegation, OR152, 33-1 j13f, 9-241997
Pharanear, OR150, 14-1 j9f, 1-24Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
2009
P’Tit Fute, OR 150, 11-1 7f, 8-222008
Footy Facts, OR 150, 18-1 j10f, 13-242007
Adamant Approach, OR151, 16-1 j11f, 3-24
Rhinestone Cowboy, OR157, 12-1 6f, 9-24
Kadoun, OR150, 13-2FAV, 18-24
Millenium Royal, OR157, j7f, 20-242002
Historic, OR150, 33-1 j17f, 18-242000
Moorish, OR160, 40-1 j19f, PU-241999
Pharanear, OR157, 16-1 j10f, 7-24
Torboy, OR151, 25-1 j12f, PU-241998
Allegation, OR152, 33-1 j13f, 9-241997
Pharanear, OR150, 14-1 j9f, 1-24graysonscolumn,
I expect you’ll be revising, basing your opinion of the toughness of the task if not the impossibility of it based on stats from such a small sample of horses over so many years, particularly when compared to the number of horses running in it rated lower than 150.
Even so, a £3 level stake profit just at sp would be obtained from this small sample and I think it’s reasonable to assume we would be nudging a 100% profit return on stakes at best prices
I believe that Willie Amos is still considering the Pertemps Final for Lie Forrit, so it may be that Bouggler gets in on 11-7, which could be further reduced by a decent claimer.
I was on Bouggler but because he lost 2nd, there was no way the result of the race was ever going to change. Whether people like the rules or not, there is no way you can say the result was definitely affected by what happened and why should Kayf Aramis be given a race when at best he was a lucky 2nd anyway.
Perhaps the pertemps final could be back on the agenda, as the handicappers has dropped Bouggler by 2lbs to 148.
I find this a baffling decision – a close up third in a competitive Grade 2 race and his mark is cut?
I’d also suggest that the owners should rethink the idea that Aintree is somehow less of a test of stamina than Cheltenham. The standard time for 3M on the New Course at Cheltenham is 5m 41s, for 3M at Aintree it’s 5m 56s.
AP
I’d also suggest that the owners should rethink the idea that Aintree is somehow less of a test of stamina than Cheltenham. The standard time for 3M on the New Course at Cheltenham is 5m 41s, for 3M at Aintree it’s 5m 56s.
AP
An excellent point. The same is true (to a lesser degree) of the 2 miles 110 yards trip at both tracks. Aintree’s standard is three seconds slower than Cheltenham.
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