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Thanks, Zoso.
It seems the copycats were very quick at making the right assumption, ie, lay the fav for thousands right after the off.
So have I got this right? The tipping lines have a massive impact on the on-course market; in-running layers on the Exchanges then copy the move.
Is that how the thing works/boat floats etc?
Basically when I was a member, you would have an account bet released about 4 minutes before the off time. You would usally know which race the bet was going to be in – ie – if the call back time was 3:34 then you were going to be having a bet in the 3:40 race.
I would get myself into the bookmakers well before and write about 3 betting slips out for different horses in that 3:40 race, so that as soon as I got the horse – I would already have the slip written out. This is how quick they move the markets. A horse that was trading at say 7-2 could within 60 seconds be trading at 6/4 due to weight of money. With my slip written out before I got the message I was normally able to get that 7/2. Thats how quick you need to be, as they seriously move markets.
There are many people out there who will see a gamble taking place and will jump on board, without having any knowledge of where that gamble is coming from.
I dont know about other tipping organisations but Isiris is a serious market mover.
Sean,
Most customers of the tipsters would be trying to back the horse off course. The bookmakers take a small part of the money at the current show price (presumably 4/1 in this case) and offer the customer the rest of his stake at SP. They then back the horse, either on course, or on the exchanges, or both, in order to reduce the price and cut their liabilities at SP.
The on course market simply follows the exchanges now anyway, so once the price collapses on Betfair, it collapses on course as well.
The in running betting could be any one of a number of things, but traders, tipster customers that couldn’t get matched before the off, bandwagon jumpers who think the race is bent are all likely candidates.
If you want an example of how much Isiris can affect the market, I once backed a horse trained by Stoute in a Group race at the York Ebor meeting and was happy when I got 4/1 in the morning. On course it opened 7/2 and drifted to 7/1 – on Betfair the biggest price matched was 13.5 (i.e 12/1). On Ch4, McCririck was going nuts claiming the market move meant the horse couldn’t possibly win. But it did, fairly comfortably.
How much money do you think it would take to move a horse from 7/2 to 12/1 in that sort of race?
The problem racing has is that 90%+ of the people that bet on it much prefer a conspiracy to the facts. Most of the complaining punters on the BF forum probably believe that the CIA organised 9/11, Princess Di was murdered by MI6, and Devon Loch was knocked over by a stun gun.
AP
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AP
Are you saying that Isiris gave a different horse in the York race, and as a result money for that caused your selection to drift?
Sorry if I’m a bit slow, but could you clarify?They release there lay bets at about 1pm (or did years ago last time I phoned them). You will normally see 1 or 2 favs each day that were solid early doors and then they drift horiffically to massive prices on betfair.
You will then see threads on betfair saying how racing is bent and this horse is a non trier, people will swear they will never have another bet. These lays are only down to someones opinion, like anyone else his opinion can be wrong, so sometimes you are getting outstanding value on a horse if Isiris has tipped it as a lay. Its not bent its just one mans opinion who happens to have a serious following of big hitting players. Very often his selection will be right (if it wasnt then no one would have heard of Isiris) and the conspiracy theorist will be out in force as the market drift followed by the horse running badly obviously means that racing is bent and it couldnt possibly be down to someone just having an opinion and being correct.
Im sure that there are bent races that take place (same can probably be said in most sports) but Im also certain there are not anywhere near the ammount that these conspiracy theorists would have you believe.
On Ch4, McCririck was going nuts claiming the market move meant the horse couldn’t possibly win. But it did, fairly comfortably.
Sorry to drift off topic – but how does one declare that it is not possible in a horse to win based on nothing to do with the horse at all?
You have rated a runner on top to win a race. He is 5/1 in the morning but drifts to 10/1 at post. Does it mean:
a) The horse is not going to win.
b) Juicier odds for you?
What McCririck has proclaimed is absolute nonsense. Is it?
Thank you for your views, gentlemen!
Am I right in thinking that the actual on-course betting ring is "governed" largely by the of-course Big3, who respond in a large part to what certain tipping organisations say?
Actually, I have been convinced about the power of the Big3 for years, but I wasn’t so aware of the actual effect of the Tipsters.
I sometimes wonder why places like betfair forum spew out so much anti- Ring venom, when it seems clear that the real market-controlling forces are elsewhere.
In fairness, the betfarians do tend to be fairly harsh on paid tipsters in general, with the "O" one always getting plenty of stick, indirectly.Reet,
No, Isiris gave the Stoute horse as a lay and the drift was simply the result his punters chasing the price up as they try to get matched.
E.g. – Punter 1 puts up £500 at 5.2, so Punter 2 puts up his £500 at 5.4, Punter 3 goes 5.6 and so on.
The effect of the Isiris money is simply to upset the natural balance between layers and backers that would normally set the price.
M D,
Most of what McCririck proclaims is nonsense – in this case all he did was demonstrate publicly his failure to understand the impact of the exchanges on the on course market. With layers on BF offering any price to get matched, on course bookies could take bets off racegoers knowing they could hedge the bet at bigger prices on their computers.
AP
I once backed a horse trained by Stoute in a Group race at the York Ebor meeting and was happy when I got 4/1 in the morning. On course it opened 7/2 and drifted to 7/1 – on Betfair the biggest price matched was 13.5 (i.e 12/1).
Would that have been First Charter in the Lonsdale Cup perchance?
I backed it at 11/2 on course with Pat Higgins on Tatts no.1 joint then watched with some amazement as he (and others) swiftly put up 6/1, 13/2…out to 15/2 in places, if memory serves.The normally grim-faced Mr Higgins actually tipped me a wink and weak smile as my jaw fell ever further floorwards.
Millenary was the horse punted, into an sp of 11/8 from, I think, 9/4 early.
Drone,
Twas indeed First Charter, the most depressing 4/1 winner I’ve ever backed, in no way made easier to bear by the friend who phoned after the race to tell me he hadn’t fancied it himself, but knew I’d backed it and couldn’t resist a bet at 13.0 on BF.
AP
I agree. Often the second string is unexposed and/or is very well bred for the job. Or else, it may have comparable or even have the better form.
I think it inconceivable that a betting owner wouldn’t sometimes exploit the way in which people seem to latch onto the ‘stable’s fancied’, as interpreted on the basis of it carrying the stable’s retained jockey.
Why is it a sign of skulduggery if a second string wins?
Why shouldn’t the true second string be backed by the trainer, owners or stable lads?Say there are two horses working on the gallops.
Horse (A) beats horse (B) in a mile gallop by a length.
The two run in the same race and the word gets out “psssd, don’t tell anyone but (A) is the better horseâ€Value Is EverythingIsiris move markets but the effect varies – if they’re going with the insider flow the effect will be dramatic. When a horse is not wanted by certain parties it can drfit after being tipped up.
I remember going around the shops most of the morning for a race at Ayr where the second fav only had to go down and come back to be placed. Predictably Isiris tipped it up but it actually drifted after they tipped it – you could name your stake on the beast. Even more predictably the jockey then made an attempt at the land speed record before fading out of the frame and getting hauled over the coals by the stewards.
Zoso
I see that you were in the past a member of Isiris.With all of Mr Booth’s claims of massive profits and how people have retired soley on his skill at predicting winners I am suprised that you are no longer a member.
Did you therefore not make the sums of money he claims?
There is no doubt though he does influence markets as I knew someone that joined for 1 year. His experiance was a joke as he only was able to call 3 times on any day.
The days where there was a bet he had to call in at a precise time but often could not get through and some times he received a message that he had already called 3 times evenif he had the engaged tone so he never knew what the selection was anyway!
The reason he may have more (or any) influence than he should I think is that to stop ‘relay services’ finding out his selections he does not put out the exact bet as you say until a few minutes before the race.
So everyone phones their bookmaker in the same 60 seconds.
People who part with over a thousand pound to join are likely to not be betting with ‘bus fare’ money so this also makes bookmakers trim up any selection he gives.
This generates expectations that if you know the horse he has selected and the price starts to fall that you are ‘some how in the coup’
If you check the Advertising standards webiste there have been many complaints all upheld regarding Kevin Booth and his advertising claims.
When there is any two teams with more than one entry in the same event whether it is a horse race trainer with more than one horse racing or a F1 boss involved in the same event with two cars from the same garage and the lesser fancied member wins there is always accusations of some fix.
When Lewis Hamilton retired due to crashing last year the betfair forum contained many accusations that Ron Dennis arranged the result!
‘yes Lewis, Ron here on the radio you should crash next lap as I have a few bob on Alonso’
I don’t think i have quite understood yet.
When Gingertipster says " bookmakers see the right people" having a bet, who exactly does he mean?
From what Zoso said, I gathered that a lot of the tippingline money was put on at the last minute in the shops.
Sorry Sean, we are talking cross purposes. I am not talking about tipping lines at all. The "right people" means punters connected to the yard, in the know, or those punters the bookmakers respect as good judges.
Value Is EverythingYes, Ginge, you mean on-course, I think?
I was confused because the thrust of the " no skullduggery argument" seemed to be that the "inexplicable" heavy laying early In Running was the knock on effect of influential tippingline information and action.
In fact, I’m still a bit hazy about the mechanics of it all, but I guess that’s nothing new!
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