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A few years ago I watched after a selling hurdle as the winner, trained by Paul Nicholls, was bought by a well known telephone tipster. When the horse reappeared, it was from the yard of C J Gray and the registered owner was S C Botham.
The same owner and an R G Botham have both had horses in training with Gray with limited success. So how come S C Botham now has a horse in the top yard in the country?
Could it be that the betting patterns yesterday reflected the fact that the tipster, well known for his preference for thieving each way bets in uncompetitive novice hurdles, was able to see what almost anybody else could have worked out, that Pacha D’Oudairies was nailed on for a place and with his stable companion at odds on, was the classic each way bet to nothing.
Could it be that another large tipping outfit with no connection to ‘S C Botham’ put up the favourite as a lay, taking the view that the fitting of a tongue tie was clear evidence of a breathing problem on his previous start, with insufficient time since then for an operation to resolve the problem.
All supposition of course …….
AP
Albeit supposition it also makes sense. People assume everytime a horse seems to have landed a touch it’s the trainers money………not always the case…….a jockey can put a trainer away as quick as look at them and have his punters back a horse he knows is better than the trainer thinks…..if the horse looks to have a chance and wins the trainer would probably just put it down to some people fancying the horse at it snowballing …..not for one minute am I suggesting that was the case here but it does happen in some smaller yards…..there are many different scenarios that causes money to come pouring in for a horse and things are not always as they seem.
I saw the betfair post and think its about the biggest moan up about jack sh*t.
Henderson has in the past won with his supposedly second horse, Martin and David Pipe have done it every other day. Mark Johnston has done it as Barry Hills, Mick Channon, Gary Moore, Luca Cumani, Howard Johnson, Willie Mullins have also been accused so has Bin Surroor when his pacemaker at Ascot scooted home leaving Dettori having too much ground to make up in the final furlong.Hpw many did Peter Grayson run the other day all in the same race?
The answer is to have a go at Portman Park and Lucksin Downs when no trainers are involved.In the past I have backed every Martin Pipe horse when he goes mob handed and come up with a 33/1 winner named Big Wheel Bill. He could have wanted the fav to win as he trained that who knows and who cares!
Mick Lambert the traveling head lad made a fortune of Little Owl when he backed it in doubles and trebles at 33/1 when everyone else in the yrad fancied Night Nurse. It took easterby months to come round to the conclusion Mick could right and on the day I think by memory Little Owl had done enough to send him off at shorter price than Night Nurse……trainers get it wrong others from the yrad get it right and no one is being crooked it’s just racing.
This race someone is just making a mountain out of a molehill as you say.
Incidentally one of the reason you get the outsider winning is the trainer won’t stop a horse or won’t unless the owner is in agreemnt……..if another horse from the yard is gambled on by it’s owner chances are the trainer may have said the to him/her the other could be a danger, but there’s just no telling some owners and they get weighed in anyway.
The bloke who wrote that post is a mug who wants to blame others for himself backing the wrong horses.
Will say more after Newbury tomorrow, got to study.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingThe stable’s second string winning isn’t such a rare event. You get a better price for them, too.
Because a horse is favourite, doesn’t mean it’s the form horse, either. Bookies follow conventions. They know a lot of people will back the champion trainer’s horses, virtually sight unseen, and if he should be just about at single-figure odds, they’ll make him favourite. And the fact that he’s favourite will get a lot more to be on him. If the jockey’s in the news and the press are raving about him, they’ll do their durndest to make his horse favourite.
In short, I think they strive to encourage a group mentality, because then the punters and the odds can be more easily manipulated to their profit. Surely, the punters they lose money to are the ones who ignore the ones the dogs are barking about and, for the most part, don’t go with the flow with their bets.
In principle, betting on top jockeys’ horses, trainers, etc is wise, in that it identifies first principles, e.g. the best jockeys are likely to get the best rides. However, in practice, this game has so many "ponderables" to take into account, never mind the imponderables, that it’s usefulness is more limited than many people realise, and a more wholistic approach is necessary in my view.
I share your disillusionment re the all-weather racing, Cavelino Rampante, but unfortunately the occasional gem turns up, or your luck is just in, and for punters like me, it makes it very difficult to wait for the weekend or the better-class racing you sometimes get towards the end of the week.
So, I just rave and curse at the jockey and connections at the way the horse was ridden, to let off steam, but you have to accept it for the way it is. Trying to make money from racing will always a challenge’, like crosswords and scrabble are to others. Sometimes crosswords are wrongly made, and a person can spend ages, not realising it’s incorrectly devised, although that would be inadvertent.
Imo, you can also approach most jobs/occupations, as a challenge, in terms of excelling at it. So don’t get dispirited, get disciplined.(pot meet kettle…). Or as they say, get even.
I got interested in racing for the exact opposite reason to yours. I thought the game would be as bent as a corkscrew and consequently was always looking for 20/1 shots the trainer had got in the handicap with bottom weight, when it should have been near the top. Trying to be more devious than say the handicap trainer champs. Eric Cousins and Ryan Price were great at laying out horses for handicaps in my younger days. But, alas, as the years have gone by, I’ve become increasingly disillusioned that (apart from all-weather racing) it’s as straight as it is…!
Bear in mind that while some of the pros/tipsters may talk like any other working bloke, they have minds as astute as a top barrister. They’re just focused differently, and by no means focused on a less intellectually taxing sphere. Money is always hard to make, though less so for people whose heart is really in it. Most of us think we’d like to be millionaires, but we would never have given racing a thought as a pass time, if we were. So, it’s always going to be uphill. I see youngsters here and on the box who’ve shown a more natural aptitude for racing (betting) than I’ve garnered in 46-47 years. People have different aptitudes and skills, of course.
Backing the Godolphin second (or third) string returns some nice priced wnners, and it would be interesting to see if this returns a profit, as I imagine it well might.
All this quite harsh on Ncholls, i feel.
Grimes,
I had personal experience of that last year with our horse, Elopement.
The first was at Musselburgh when Mark ran both Elopement and Regency Red. The night before the going was good to firm and when Seb Sanders’ agent rang Mark to ask which of his had the better chance, Mark told him that Regency Red had the better chance if the ground stayed g/f but that Elopement had a better chance if the ground was softer than good. The rain duly arrived and the ground went to g/s. Sanders’ agent asked if Seb could have the ride on Elopement instead but Mark honourably refused to jock off Graham Gibbons. The jockey bookings however caused Regency Red to go off at 13/2 enabling us to back Lottie at double figure prices.
The second occasion was at Ascot when Mark ran Trafalgar Day and Elopement. His son, Ben, was booked to ride Trafalgar Day (it was an amateur riders race). Trafalgar day was the subject of a sustained on course gamble and Elopement drifted like a barge. We won by 6 lenghts
I’m convinced that jockey bookings in both cases caused punters to assume that Mark’s other runner was the stable first string.
Just looking at this again does anyone know if Pacha D’Oudairies had a published BHA mark going into the race? As far as I know having run 3 times over hurdles prior to Thursday he should have been entitled to one. Or did the BHA refuse to give him one and if that is the case then why was that? Perhaps all the answers can be traced back to that eye-catching penultimate run.
…. The jockey bookings however caused Regency Red to go off at 13/2 enabling us to back Lottie at double figure prices.
…..Trafalgar day was the subject of a sustained on course gamble and Elopement drifted like a barge. We won by 6 lenghts
I’m convinced that jockey bookings in both cases caused punters to assume that Mark’s other runner was the stable first string.[/quote
Really beautiful when your’e the beneficiary of an unexpected price hike! I can imagine Clive Brittain’s euphoria when the big bet I think enabled him to set up his stable came home. And I had to chuckle when I read someone on here, I think, saying that a certain young lady trainer all but passed out waiting for the result of a photo or objection!
I had a pal who went blind for a few days, due to the stress of trying to juggle his work as a betting shop manager with placing his own bets. A kind of secular Road to Damascus experience, as I think he packed it in then!
there will always be some sort of foul play in racing, just as there is in every walk of life. my own opinion is its no worse a ratio of foul play than football or anything else.
i get a bit frustrated with people whining on about it.
to me its like the old bloke down the pub going on about politicians being crooked,
all these things are relative to what you do, what you can get and how easy it is to get away with.
if we asked everyone on the forum if you were a trainer and had a chance to plot up a gamble would you do it, my guess is you might get 20% that admit it, another 20% would do it but wont admit it. 60% would just say no
so my point – its to be expected, its part of human nature and i dont think its that big a deal
Backing the Godolphin second (or third) string returns some nice priced wnners, and it would be interesting to see if this returns a profit, as I imagine it well might.
You think so? I think more profit would be made (or less loss?) out of backing Ballydoyle’s second or third string. Off the top of my head … Astronomer Royal, Excellent Art, Eagle Mountain, Soldier Of Fortune.
I didnt think it was dodgy at all. The fav ran a bad race last time, the ground wasnt ideal for him, he is bred to be a chaser and his OR of 128 looked way too high. The 2nd fav was getting 6 l/b from him and stood an obvious chance.
Its not dodgy just because Ruby Walsh sat on the wrong horse, Frankie Dettori does it about 30 times a season for Godolphin and nobody calls them crooks.
I would take a wild guess that the betting patterns involved Isiris giving the fav out as a lay and the 2nd fav as an e/w account (though Im no longer a member so dont know if they did).
When that firm gives a bet out the selections price will go into free fall. Usually when you see an early favourite on betfair that has drifted alarmingly this is usually due to Isiris giving it out as a lay (nothing crooked), they haev thousands of members who play with very large stakes, when they select a horse they turn markets upside down due to there following.
I would be surprised if Paul Nicholls has done anything dodgy whatsoeevr,
They dont advise IR bets no Sean. Although if you phoned the line late then you would be better off getting it in running as you would have missed the early price.
Im pretty sure Mr B himself and friends would be pulling off some seriously sizable in running bets though.
Hmmm.
In the betfair post, several old hands were complaining about the IR betting patterns.
Apparently, there was huge money trying to lay the losing fav right from the off. That seems to have caused a lot of the furore.Personally, I hate the exchanges and in-running betting, so I have no understanding of the problem.
I think AP was probably also refering to Isiris when mentioning the thieving e/w bets that anyone could see.
He mentioned another well known tipster that may have been involved. If two heavyweight tipping services are getting involved in the same bet then the market would appear to be very iffy due to the weight of money coming from all angles.
The impact that would have been caused to the market would then result in a hell of a lot of copycats jumping on board the gamble, many in running, the copycats would all be assuming this race was bent due to the market movements and would be piling on in running as they thought Paul Nicholls was landing a personal touch and wanted to be involved.
I doubt Paul Nicholls even knew that the gamble was about to take place to be honest.
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