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Sorry to say I agree with Nath about Rhododendron. NAP material this and at 3/1 ish is a great bet!!
Maybe we are fools opposing the experts Steve and Ginge but I have always been a bit of a rebel!! LOL
You can run your clock by Lightning Spear. Great 1st run followed by decent but not near winning ones.
Agree with the fast going will help him though but is that not a negative for Recoletos.? I’ve got Rhod down as the nap of the meeting and anything above 2/1 looks good to me.I don’t think there’s a pattern like that, Nathan.
He certainly put in a better performance second time out than first time out in 2015 – albeit when still on the upgrade.
In 2016 a good 1 3/4 lengths 3rd behind Tepin in the Queen Anne on reappearance. Then – yes – on the face of it disappointing in the Sussex, but why? Dropped out last in a slowly run mile at Goodwood is asking for trouble, having to come very wide in order to get a run. In the circumstances did as well as could be expected.
In 2017 a good second to Ribchester on reappearance before never going at Ascot second time out. Why? Officially “good-firm” ground, but if I remember rightly wasn’t the only course record to go. Without any doubt in my mind unofficially proper firm ground and Lightning Spear not the only horse to act on it.
So although possible he doesn’t go as well second time out, the chance of that being the case has imo been exaggerated. There are other valid reasons for those two disappointments.
…And it can’t be anything to do with not being able to perform back to back either.
Lightning Spear ran very well in last year’s Sussex Stakes. Came there to win the race and just faultered close home – not appearing to stay on the heavy going – but still less than a length behind the winner. Then – with fewer days off than here – less than a month later won the Celebration Mile.In 2016 won that same Celebration Mile before what was one of his best performances, 3rd in the QEII next time out – beaten only 1 and 1/2 a length by Minding and Ribchester on good-firm. (Albeit longer between the two races).
So it’s certainly nothing to do with being back to back.
Although his consistency isn’t absolutely ideal… Taking in to account the horses he’s been up against, ground (sometimes not staying a mile on very soft and once too firm to act) and the 5 races abroad (has never performed well overseas)… And occasionally being given too much to do… His performances have imo been more consistent than people give him credit for.
Am a little concerned if it looks very firm he might come out.
Rhododendron has imo a better chance than Lightning Spear, because of her consistency. However, imo the markets have over-estimated her chance. May be judging too much on the trainer’s form in the race/Royal Ascot rather than her own form.
Indeed, as I said: Good-firm would be a negative; but sometimes the price available makes it worth taking a chance it won’t be a problem. ie Recoletos’s form is right up there with the best of these and is still unexposed at the trip (could yet be better). Had/if the ground been/is softer I’d make him favourite.
Am also more inclined to excuse a French horse that’s not yet raced on good-firm. In my experience French goings are harder to work out due to some strange rail movements. I have also taken a similar chance on Wooton in the St James’s Palace… Also, although the greater chance is for one that hasn’t run on it before doesn’t act… There’s also a possibility – as Steve rightly said – for a horse to improve its form on the new surface… Particularly so because from what I’ve seen of Recoletos’s action (I could be wrong) it doesn’t look one of a typical easy ground specialist.
Value Is EverythingGinge if you are worried about Lightning Spear’s stamina the course won’t help either 0/6
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Good post by the way. I think LS will find it tougher at Ascot than Newbury the course is stiffer and in my opinion he runs his best proper fresh after a long break. Price was massive difference in Lockinge, I was on at 25’s, 20’s and 16’s. Price difference looks poor this time around imo
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Ginge if you are worried about Lightning Spear’s stamina the course won’t help either 0/6
Sometimes course stats are informative, sometimes not Nathan.
Yes, if there’s a particularly fast pace on softish ground he may not stay the mile on a stiffish course. But it is unlikely to be soft.
…And looking further than those bare stats shows Lightning Spear having a reasonable record there.
Included in those six races are two of his best performances.
Total of 1 3/4 lengths 3rd to Tepin (just 1 1/4 behind the second – Lockinge winner Belardo) in the 2016 Queen Anne…
And even better in the QEII. Only beaten 1 1/2 lengths by 2016 horse of the year Minding (with Champion miler Ribchester only a length in front second). Running to that form would imo be good enough to win on Tuesday.Do you think Lightning Spear should’ve done better in either of those two runs?
I was coming back from the Peak District on Lockinge day and had I seen Lightning Spear’s price I would’ve been on him too.
However, that price can not be fairly compared with his price today. He was going in to Newbury after three below par performances. Tuesday he’ll be going in to Ascot having been unlucky not to beat the filly who’ll be around 3/1 favourite for the race – Rhododendron. Only beaten a short head – I say again – only beaten a short head; with the filly having raced on the fastest strip of ground. On ratings – unless believing one was below form – the two horses need to be rated of equal ability. That’s not to say they have the same chance here. How much each individual punter knocks off Lightning Spear’s chance for inconsistency etc is up to the individual.
To be worth a bet @ 11/4 Rhod needs to be considered a better than 27% chance to be a good bet.
To be worth a bet @ 8/1 Lightning Spear only needs to be considered a better than 11% chance to be a good bet.Others may disagree, but currently I’d have the favourite as around an 18% (fair 9/2) chance and Lightning Spear 14% (fair 6/1).
Value Is EverythingGinge the Tepin race was LS 1st time out that year, hence a good run in my view
The QE11 is a fair enough shout and the horse has have ability and if he reproduces a run like that will be thereabouts I just feel the Lockinge was the day if ever he was going to land a group 1, hope I’m wrong as I like the horse alot.
In last years Queen Anne, LS was never a factor despite running a very encouraging race in the Lockinge and that Lockinge was on the soft side going wise and QA on the quick sideGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I’m struggling to see why Benbatl isn’t favourite.
Has improved since the Classic campaign, course form, high cruising speed; he might not win, obviously, but others have more questions to answer.
This is the shortest Benbatl has run over for a long time; can’t quite tell until running over the trip so it is possible he’s better over further. However as Mark says, he has a high cruising speed… And the way he won over 9f last time – quickening away from a Group 1 field – suggests may be even better at a mile. So could argue he’s as/almost as good as all of these with prospects of improving further.
Value Is EverythingIn the end I’ve not had a penny on Recoletes.
I’m sticking with my original fancy
Benbatl @ 9/2
I don’t quite think Benbatl has done enough in his career so far to warrant being as low as 4/1. His form from last year is well short of what is required to win this and I’m not too sure he really beat much out in Dubai. There’s the trip issue, the straight course question, stable form and the fact that this will be his first run since his jaunt to the desert; I don’t like to bet those on their return to Europe.
Obviously he looks to have improved and if he could keep up that trajectory then he’s entitled to go close if he’s firing on all cylinders. I would see 13/2 as a fair price not 4s and shan’t be cheering Soumillon on.
Undoubtedly, Ham, but he has the cruising speed for this race ( if he can win over 9 at Meydan then, heavens to Murgatroyd, surely a mile at Ascot is suitable
Neither he nor the mare beat anything top class last time but Benbatl is maintaining his form well, coinciding with a settled campaign over similar distances.
My main concern here is Godolphin in these types of races; ones they should win but far too often don’t even place.
I’d be more confident if he were trained by ApplebyI didn’t fancy overcomplicating this. She’s was unlucky not to be a Guineas-Oaks heroine, won at the highest level in the Autumn and returned with a barnstorming Lockinge win. That’s the best form on offer, she’s entitled to come on again and she gets the fillies’ allowance.
Rhododendron 3/1
(Savers chucked on Recoletos & Lightning Spear)
Benbatl is an easy lay for me. I can’t have him as a 4/1 shot here.
Benbatl is 0/2 at the trip and it was Group 3 company both times. He also had a stinker in Dubai when stuffed by the handicapper Blair House. That defeat made him value next time and he was a rare bright spot for me on an otherwise poor World Cup meeting where I deserted a couple of my previous winners and saw my ante-post bet on Blue Point go East as he was withdrawn 30 seconds before the race with some blood in a nostril.
The only high points I can see in Benbatl’s form this season is Opal Tiara beating Hydrangea, who was probably 60% fit in blatant preparation for Royal Ascot and Lancaster Bomber winning a controversial (In some niches at least) Tattersall’s, when Cracksman defected to give backers heart failure at Epsom instead.
I just wonder if Benbatl ticks enough boxes to be the price he is, with Lancaster Bomber bombing at Meydan and not really a true form pointer.
The Racing Post selection box for the race is interesting, with Benbatl most tipped with six tips, Recoletos next with 4 tips and only one of the 16 tips for favourite Rhododendron.
Not a big betting race for me at all but I preferred Recoletos at twice the odds Benbatl is now. Especially with Benbatl’s form in this country looking below his Meydan efforts. Not all Group 1 races are equally strong form either.
Good luck to all, we may get a surprise here.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Originally struggled for an angle into this race, poor affair TBH.
Hoping SBS has Benbatl tuned to his max for this and like that Soumillon is up. Dubai Run is probably just that, a Dubai Run but he’s bred to improve with age so it might not be a flash in the pan.
5/1 e/w 4 places with Paddy’s looks fair.
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