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Although it is a fair way off, Ladbrokes have opened a book on the Lockinge Stakes.
The full list is as follows (Prices correct at 2.15pm 2nd April) :-
California Chrome (5), Karakontie (5), Night Of Thunder (5), Integral (6), Ectot (8), Due Diligence (10), Rizeena (10), Bow Creek (12), Mshawish (12), Shifting Power (12), Fascinating Rock (14), Tullius (14), Aljamaaheer (16), Toormore (16), Bawina (20), Breton Rock (20), Cape Peron (20), Captain Cat (20), Here Comes When (20), Trade Storm (20) , Yuften (20), Arod (25), Custom Cut (25), Ektihaam (25), Mutakayyef (25), Oklahoma (25), Prestige Vendome (25), Top Notch Tonto (25), Cougar Mountain (33), Graphic (33), Hors De Combat (33), Cable Bay (50), Moohaarib (50), Master Carpenter (66), Maximum Velocity (100)
The obvious eye-catcher is California Chrome, as the Kentucky Derby winner of last season. Whether you would want to be backing him on these shores away from his normal surface is very questionable for me though. I’ll be against him for sure.
Karakontie was speculated as a potential 2000 Guineas runner last year but his trainer rarely wanders away from French shores so it was no surprise that he didn’t come over but perhaps it was more of a shock to see him in the Breeders Cup and winning quite well into the bargain. Perhaps the USA style track and firm ground brought the best out if the horse and if he does come over for the race we have to reckon he won’t get anything like the same conditions this time.
Night Of Thunder won the 2000 Guineas with a sensational late burst, was there a sense of a fluke about it with Kingman turning the tables on him comprehensively afterwards? He’s certainly an interesting prospect if he’s progressed further from last season but probably one I would like to see run first this year.
Integral is next on the list at 6/1 and she has been a good horse for me over the years. She disappointed in the QE II last time but the ground was heavy, and, although she has won on soft, Michael Stoute has said she really bounces on the faster surface. A likeable sort with a good strike rate, she is near enough in the ratings to make her very interesting. She ran well on her debut last season, is a liable runner and makes appeal at this stage with others having some doubts.
Ectot was a big disappointment in The Arc and would be dropping back in trip if turning up here. He’s not one for me anyway.
Due Diligence faces the reverse scenario, stepping up after some promising Sprint efforts, notably runner-up to Slade Power. Entered up in a sprint at Cork at the weekend, you would think that will be his game and he has to be opposed in this contest.
Rizeena is an old sparring partner of Integral and seemed to be put in her place by the older filly in the Falmouth, although perhaps the softer ground may have tested her stamina that day. With Rizeena turning 4 years old she will not get the 9 lbs allowance she did from Stoute’s filly when they last met and it’s hard to envisage a reversal of form in my eyes.
Getting beyond Rizeena it gets harder to fancy much. There are horses with a mish-mash of profiles, dropping in trip, coming from disappointments, or like Tullius, from a less than earth shattering performance at odds on. They’re may be a sleeper in there but for me it’s Integral who appeals most, with Night Of Thunder given as the option.
Lockinge Stakes, early advice Integral(Sir Michael Stoute)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I like Toormore at the prices but the yard have Night of Thunder who has already been stated that the Lockinge will the starting point for the season for Goldophin’s new recruit. Toormore has run against NOT a few times so it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that they clash again. NOT has beaten Toormore on 3 occasions but I’d take a chance Toormore will improve as a 4 year old. He was a skinny, tall, leggy thing as a two year old and although he didn’t put in the performances as they expected at 3yo I think it’s taken him longer to mature than people thought and looking at him on Champions day he has really filled out his frame and his run that day for me was much more encouraging given that the going was in favour of NOT and Toormore wasn’t far behind in third.
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
I don’t believe we have seen the best from Here Comes When yet. If we get a soft ground Lockinge, this horse could be very dangerous. I believe this horse will produce a massive run on soft ground at some point in its career.
I don’t believe we have seen the best from Here Comes When yet. If we get a soft ground Lockinge, this horse could be very dangerous. I believe this horse will produce a massive run on soft ground at some point in its career.
He’s interesting on soft ground. A little bit in and out, his profile is one of steady improvement and he signed off on a good note last year. Given ideal conditions, he might well surprise in one of the big races one day if he makes a bit more progress.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Paddy Power have opened a book on this and are seriously strong on Night Of Thunder at 5/2. They have California Chrome at 10/1.
I am taking the plunge on Integral however. Michael Stoute has said she may well line up there and Paddy Power are 12/1, so that is must have material for me.
Integral Lockinge 12/1 Paddy Power
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I expect the Lockinge field to trim down in size over the next ten days.
Some will head to other options, some might not travel over and there will be the odd setback probably.
With that in mind and Michael Stoute more or less committing Integral to the race now, I think she’s still worth and interest at 9/1.
Night Of Thunder is respected but a bit skinny for me.
9/1 each-way looks pretty good to me for Integral and Stoute has said she’s entiltled to have a crack at the Colts now she’s five.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I have to agree re Integral Steve 9/1 seems a decent price.
I am curious about a couple of progressive horses in Hors de Combat of Fanshawes and Mooharrib of Bottis’s.
Both look like they are working their way up the ranks and will be better than handicappers come the end of the year.
I know they have to improve half a stone upwards to feature but they will improve throughout the season and could be worth keeping an eye on particularly the Fanshawe horse considering he can’t buy a winner at the moment.I have to agree re Integral Steve 9/1 seems a decent price.
I am curious about a couple of progressive horses in Hors de Combat of Fanshawes and Mooharrib of Bottis’s.
Both look like they are working their way up the ranks and will be better than handicappers come the end of the year.
I know they have to improve half a stone upwards to feature but they will improve throughout the season and could be worth keeping an eye on particularly the Fanshawe horse considering he can’t buy a winner at the moment.I used to wait until August and September to start getting behind the Fanshawe horses a few years ago. He generally hasn’t been as successful since then and Deacon Blues was the last horse of his that I can recall having a few thick bets on. Sadly we never saw the best of the horse but he was good to me that year he ran up a wee sequence and I wish there were more like that reliable fellow. Wages Day indeed for Deacon Blues.
I was going to back Moohaarib last time he ran, as I thought he was the value at 5/1 in the race where Mondialiste was 2/1 early doors. I had thought Marco Botti’s horse a good each-way in the Lincoln and watched as Gabrial mowed down my 25/1 selection, coming through like Dancing Brave, while Moohaarib hung across but still finished well for third. It didn’t seem any value that the O’Meara horse was less than half the odds when they re=opposed.
It ended up I mucked about and when I checked later Moohaarib was only 7/2 and I left the race alone. Of course he won and the Dancing Brave lookalike Gabrial went on to run more like his normal in two modest efforts afterwards. It sort of sticks in the throat when these horses seem laid out to go into a race off a good mark and finish with a wet sail and then run like a bag of rusty washers the next two outings but that’s racing.
Moohaarib could have a group race in him but I think the Lockinge is too hot for him at this stage. I backed Integral hoping Stoute would have turned the tide by raceday but he’s still operating fitfully with horses like Capel Path tonight and Cannock Chase earlier in the week not living up to quite warm favouritism. You just wonder if Stoutie has gone the way of the casual vomit, white dog crap, Hale and Pace, Betamax video tapes and The Krankies.
Had Stoute been in better form I’d be feeling quite happy about 12/1 and 9/1 but you just wonder when it’s going to start happening for him. The long term plan was to get on at 12/1 and then hopefully be sitting looking at Integral showing about 5/1 as the stalls opened but you suspect that, even if that is the position, she will find a way not to win it.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Toormore couldn’t find a leg in the first three furlongs in the QE11, Kieron Fallon couldn’t handle him, he had no room like a lot including Integral but showed his ability at the end in which was the only time last season he ran to the line, a lot of his form was poor, average at best and I think he wasn’t quite right up till Champions day where he was visually a different horse. The going was horrendous that day but in theory that was against him and more in Night of Thunder’s favour who goes well enough on anything. The 20’s are long gone and Ladbrokes 16’s went quicker then the buffet at a Sumo Wrestler awards ceremony. Boyles go 14’s which is still a good price provided he turns up, I backed Toronado for this last year.
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Karakontie has had a setback and misses the race.
A shame as I was looking forward to seeing him.Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Soft ground in danger of turning this race into a non-event?
The ground at Newbury is good/good to firm in places at the moment. The forecast on the BHA site says there will be persistent rain on Thursday but Friday is given as mainly dry.
Here Comes When has been backed so someone must be expecting it might be soft.
Night Of Thunder should be fine on soft ground. Integral has won on it but she looked all at sea on heavy ground behind Charm Spirit in the QEII at Ascot when we last saw her.
Having backed Integral at 12/1 I am hoping the rain stays away, as I think her best chance will be if the ground is sound. A good few of the others look like they won’t mind it soft.
Night Of Thunder will probably be considered as one of the Hannon’s best prospects this year, having won the Guineas in a bit of a shocker last season. Mind you, that was his only win, despite several high profile places. He’s the one I fear most but I am hoping the early bet at 12/1 on Integral can be rewarded with a win, after several big priced ones letting me down after shrinking markedly in price by race day this spring. Ante Post odds ain’t a lot of consolation when they can’t land the race and make your planning pay off.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I know he’s an old dog and all that but Aljamaaheer could be a big priced danger here. His very best form is at a mile IMO, he’s had a prep run and he’s very talented. Yes I know he always finds a way to lose and he hasn’t won at the very top level but he’s one of those horses that if everything falls right he could have his day in the sun.
I think there is little to choose between Night Of Thunder and Integral. Night Of Thunder needed his first run last season, might he need it again? Integral I expect to be straight and expect her to run well. Toormore was probably a fraction disappointing last season but some of his form was good nonetheless and he can’t be ignored here. Could he steal it racing from the front? Custom Cut improved all through last season then came up short on his first attempt at Group one level. Now he’s had a go at the top level can he improve now he’s experienced it?
If someone put a gun to my head I think I’d probably go with Integral but it’s a very interesting and competitive race. Watch out for that Aljamaaheer
Varian is still operating at a near 18% win ratio and although last couple of weeks he’s found a winner hard to come by, Talmada ran well today FTO at big odds which suggests his horses are still generally fit. I always view trainers being out of form in line with if their horses clearly need the run, or aren’t seeing out their races, but don’t think that’s entirely true of Varian. I too would give Aljamaheer a squeak as he tends to save his best for the big races.
Always expect the unexpected.
Varian is still operating at a near 18% win ratio and although last couple of weeks he’s found a winner hard to come by, Talmada ran well today FTO at big odds which suggests his horses are still generally fit. I always view trainers being out of form in line with if their horses clearly need the run, or aren’t seeing out their races, but don’t think that’s entirely true of Varian. I too would give Aljamaheer a squeak as he tends to save his best for the big races.
Just one winner from 19 runners for Varian this month and he’s only netted £23000 in win prize money through April and May. He’s had a few seconds but some of the have been getting beaten by jump racing distances.
Talmada did run a good race behind Secret Gesture and she absolutely dwarfs the winner from a physical standpoint.
Night Of Thunder should take a bit of beating if he’s progressed from three to four. He landed the 2000 Guineas at a monster price and was thereabouts in several of the top mile races last season, having had the misfortune to run into Kingman along the road. The stable are ticking along at about 14% as a strike rate the past two months without exactly setting the heather on fire and he’ll be seen as nap material by some pundits. There’s not a lot of value at 5/2 in a big field though.
I would have been fairly confident of a good run from Integral and I did manage to get her at 12/1 some time ago. I can’t seem to get a bloody winner with these ante-post bets though and Michael Stoute is only landing one winner from every ten runners through April and May with 5/51 and 3/29 during those months respectively. Bragging was quite a warm favourite for the stable yesterday but was beaten an awfully long way from home. It just seems that the trainer who used to pop up fairly regularly with Classic winners is struggling to even get a runner in those races now and I don’t know how many of his horses have been said to “need more time” this season. I don’t see value in Integral at about 5/1 but she will be a contender if the rain stays away.
Toormore is generally next at about 10/1 and some people felt he bounced back to something like form late last season. I’m still reserved about him though. The ground was mighty soft when he got to within half a length of Night Of Thunder and beating Tullius half a length in the process doesn’t look earth shattering form. If the ground stays fast I would just be a bit worried about him running as well as he seemed to that day.
Quite a few of these would appreciate a bit of rain and Moohaarib is one I like each way at 16/1 if it stays dry. He’s progressive and ran well in the Lincoln before reversing form with Mondialiste next time. He may surprise a good few of these if it stays sound on top.
Custom Cut needs respecting purely on his terrific strike rate, with the slight reservation if he’s quite up to this standard.
Integral was my first pick here and I am hopeful, rather than confident, that 12/1 was a good bit of planning early doors. Moohaarib would be the each-way shout if it doesn’t rain as much as was forecast earlier in the week.
Aljamaaheer might indeed place at a big price but that was a poor race he contested last time and I have reservations about him going from listed company to group 1 and a big field at a mile, rather than a small one at 7f.
Good luck people.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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