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I actually just came across an interesting trend that I found in 2010 that I’d forgotten about. Between 1998 and 2008, 19 horses ran in the Triumph with a flat RPR of 100+. 1 won (Celestial Halo), 2 placed.
Will look into the last 3 years now to see if that stat has carried on, but if it has, both Minsk and Dildar also reached 100+.
Yes this is a very interesting stat that’s continued. I’m looking into it properly now and I’ll go back a fair way, but 2007-2011;
16 runners with a flat RPR of 100+
1 winner; Celestial Halo (114, the highest rated of any of the 16)
2 placed; Alaivan (112), Mourad (105)13 unplaced who finished 67000P690RP9P
Those rated even 95-99 finished; 9045
Celebrity Sevi, Creekside, Dildar, Midnight Oil, Minsk, Military Bowl & Sadler’s Risk fall into the RPR100+ category. Kazlian also comes dangerously close on 99.
I would just be more inclined to lean towards an Irish or French bred which have a significantly better record than the british breds.
Libranno (GB)
4-y-o (13Feb08 b c)
Librettist (USA) — Annabelle Ja (FR) (Singspiel (IRE))What nationality is Libranno?
Backed Grumeti this morning at 10s, thought he would win his trial as mentioned on Twitter, didn’t like any horses in the Adonis, they are going like flies. Still think Minks at 12s with Ladbrokes NRNB could be worth a tickle.
Although not overly impressive today, I can’t see how anyone would write off Baby Mix. He clearly wasn’t right when finishing last at Cheltenham the time before Kempton, and that reason, along with his debut display, gave me a sneaky feeling for him today. Easy to say now as I’d been adamant for days before the race that we’d see a different Dildar today – no such luck
How he still has people saying he can’t win this shocking Triumph though is beyond me! He’s not my first choice right now but still……….
All these people who are keen to suggest that Grumeti will win the Triumph, are you not concerned that he got headed by the more inexperienced Pearl Swan at Cheltenham?
That was a proper test of the Triumph as it was run over course and distance. Ok if you use that form then you have to discount Baby Mix, but I don’t really think Pearl Swan should have been thrown out that day, are there any legitimate excuses for Grumeti that day or do people think he doesn’t need any?
I’m betting each way on the day. Not touching this race at all in antepost bets.
The form reads like one of those all weather sprint handicaps
grumeti looked workmanlike to me and I thought baby mix was far more impressive. also the time was much quicker than in the grumeti race. often the flashier types get found out up that hill at cheltenham, but baby mix just looks rock solid to me.
Another misinformed comment. Baby Mix was 5.5 seconds faster to the 3rd last. Grumeti was 3.7 seconds faster from that point.
I haven’t checked that personally, just a comment I read on Twitter, but if you time the races from the 2nd hurdle, you’ll find the Dovecote (Grumeti) is faster by .5 seconds, albeit carrying 5lbs less. They just went a dawdle in that early on.
Choc Thornton also didn’t have to use the whip or ask any serious questions and won comfortably.
Will Sadlers Risk strip fitter for his run yesterday? Available at 10s with Boylesports and Lads.
He needs to improve about 7lbs just to be on a par with Grumeti, I think. And to be honest, the season Hobbs is having, I wouldn’t want to be on anything of his.
I made it 3 seconds faster from the second hurdle. Not sure what it really says. Grumeti will be in the top 5 he jumps, has pace to go along is probably the best built out of them all. 5-1 is far too short though and the only race he has had that resembled a triumph test he lost receiving 3 pounds.
Zarks, why do you think he will reverse? If anything the gap will be bigger, the pace will be more frantic and the staying on pearl swan will benefit. Furthermore, Alan Kings horses were running out of their skin that weekend which is sometimes tough to replicate.
I think he is a decent bet at 10s but wouldn’t go near him at 5s. This race is as messy and open as the supreme.
On the breeding front Zarks, you might be able to teach me something. I would say Libranno is british bred. GB by his name is all i put it down to. It is a stat I am aware of and used it for this race on that basis and it has helped rule out many a horse. Penzance being the only one i have seen and weirdly i was on.
Love Alan King and his 4 year olds always command respect, i just don’t think Grumeti has shown anything to warrant being shorter than baby mix we all know the cheltenham run is not to be trusted for baby mix’s form guide. I wouldn’t be on him because he seems to make a hash of a few hurdles and will only become more likely in the frantic triumph melee.
Simple matter is this race has no standouts. I was hoping for one or two to put a real stamp down yesterday to scare Kazlian to the fred winter where of 130 he would go close. Now because the horses look nothing special i suspect my 16-./1 on kazlian for the fw will be worthless.
For what its worth I am topping up on sadlers who i have as a level player to sadlers who will surely come close to baby mix as hobbs’ string usually improve come march and George clearly had his string firing great guns. 10-1 is a nice price.
Darroun will surely give a good account at 16s too.
I made it 3 seconds faster from the second hurdle.
Eh? I played the 2 simultaneously on the same laptop on different media players, exactly from the 2nd hurdle and there was almost no difference. Strange.
Zarks, why do you think he will reverse? If anything the gap will be bigger, the pace will be more frantic and the staying on pearl swan will benefit. Furthermore, Alan Kings horses were running out of their skin that weekend which is sometimes tough to replicate.
I think purely down to Choc being in the saddle & because of renewed confidence after a decent round of jumping. Nicholls also manages to get a lot out of his French imports soon after their British debuts & I think he’ll go backwards a fair bit. See Hinterland for a good example of that this season.
King’s are running well & you’re right there, but this is the Triumph. It’s Alan King’s race.
On the breeding front Zarks, you might be able to teach me something. I would say Libranno is british bred. GB by his name is all i put it down to.
Libranno was born in the UK, hence (GB) after his name. It doesn’t mean he’s British bred. If anything, I’d take being born in this country as a huge bonus. The French don’t push their horses early in their careers, neither do the Irish, but for the Triumph you want a horse who’s pretty much as the peak of his ability.
Sorry, thought you meant second last hurdle.
I have been watching Sadlers again, i like him but i am concerned about the complete lack of response to baby mix’s move around the final bend. Completely left behind. That concerns me.
This race is messy and i am heavily exposed to sadlers and a little on darroun. I am going to try and play it on san to make a profit on any of the 3 but i wish i could just press the reset button to be honest. One of my favourite races but I might just cut my losses and hope to get lucky.
Hoping Balder Suces runs, completely unexposed in the form with the main british protagonists and might be more to come from him.
Balder Succes is very interesting. I read that they were originally planning to bypass Cheltenham and go to Liverpool, that implied they thought he would be better next year, whatever he achieved this, and they didn’t want to bottom him out as the Triumph often does. I’d be more impressed if they let him mature and he could make up into a proper Champion Hurdle contender next year. Grumeti may well have afforded them the luxury of waiting after his performance yesterday.
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