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Can’t understand the obsession with either Balder Succes or Royal Guardsman.
The former won a 2m novice hurdle from a horse who’s previous 2 novice hurdles have been over 2m 4f and 2m 5f. Not to mention he hadn’t looked good in either and hadn’t won either, with the winner of the latter (The Druids Nephew) recording a RPR of just 119 with a topspeed of 76. Horrible.
Not to mention the time he posted.
Ascot last week
2m 3 1/2f – 19.6 seconds slower then standard
3m – 20.7 seconds slow
3m – 17.7 seconds slow
2m 5 1/2f – 13.8 seconds slow
2m 3 1/2f – 15.2 seconds slowAnd then Balder Succes
2m – 21.5 seconds slow
And Royal Guardsman
2m – 26.3 seconds slow
So Balder Succes relatively posted a slower time than Invictus.
And as for Royal Guardsman…
Their topspeed figures of 79 and 56 respectively show just how slow they were.
Time wise is very disappointing, nice point. i think it is just the visual impressiveness of the win. What did he beat? The race was not a strong run decent sized field and pretty much represents nothing of the sort of test the triumph would be.
Positives are his hurdling and his unexposure but that could be anything.
More negatives, the time arguement you point to basically condemns him for me. He has done nothing to suggest he can win the triumph time wise.
Also has very little experience and no flat form, the race always seems to go to a flat type with enough experience at 4 years old. Just put a line through him.I think it is between 5.
Grumeti, i can’t have at 5s, been beaten only time at cheltenham would rather 8-1 pearl swan.Sadlers out paced alarmingly yesterday and might get cauhght flat footed again, 10s is a fair enough price wouldn’t touch anything smaller.
Pearl Swan, could be the one, got out paced but showed the sustained run style that suits so many large field hurdle races. Hung right last time, 3 pounds better off with grumeti 8-1 is a nice price, i think he should be shorter.
Baby Mix – Wins the adonis, 2 from 3, concerned that he puts in the odd shocking leap but has to go close. 7-1 think he should be favourite.
Darroun – unexposed, front ran last time, beat hisaabat well and form been franked. Well bred flat pedigree, Irish have a terrible record in the race.
" The French don’t push their horses early in their careers "
Interesting. History says the opposite is true.
As jumpers, yes, but not as 2yos.
But then you said neither do the Irish, and they push their 2 yr olds
I’m no vetinary doctor, but how long does a throat infection develop in a horse? The length of a race? I’m not sure how often they are checked for these kinds of things, but you would’ve thought connections would’ve noticed before running him? Having backed Minsk yesterday (yes I know, fooled by all the hype
), I’m not particularly happy with the excuse given for his poor run. That may be a bit harsh on connections, but there you go.Rich…maybe someones comment on the machine sums the whole situation up….
"Did well to jump 8 feet in the air with a sore throat"
I might be wrong, but i think the person means that there can’t be anything wrong with the horses throat because he was jumping so high ?
8 foot!?!?!? Not even the fences at Aintree are 8 foot high!
Jesus, you boys seriously need to ignore what is said on that forum. The only poster worth reading is james who comments on the 1000 Guineas quite a lot.
Everyone’s talking about the time as if it’s a positive for Baby Mix. 2 seconds faster than Grumeti whilst carrying 5lbs more. Personally I’d take that as a negative. He’s had a much harder race just 20 days before the Triumph. Brennan’s needed to give him 4 smacks and they’ve run the final 2 hurdlers about 3 seconds slower than Grumeti. That’s how fast they went on early on.
Yes also managed to get 10s about him winning today & the Triumph.
On a line through Crescent Beach, I’d say he’s run to about 145 without really having to have been asked a question. I’d make him 7/2f.
Minsk has run to about 130, Baby Mix 138 & Grumeti 145 I think.
The above is a tweet I posted on Saturday afternoon and I’ve done pretty well.
142 for Grumeti
139 for Baby MixI was clearly being generous to Minsk as he’s managed a pitiful 124.
Presuming they run, Grumeti would be the joint-5th best horse to run in the race from 2005 onwards. Pearl Swan the joint-3rd.
Also seems to suggest Alan King is spot on with his assessment that Grumeti is as good as any of his previous runners in the race. Franchoek 142, Walkon 144, Katchit 136.
Although interestingly, from 12 runners from 2005-11 to have run in the Triumph being given a RPR of 140+ beforehand, none of them won.
Sadler’s Risk was given a meagre 134 & needs to improve in the region of a stone to win, which is not impossible, but it is very unlikely.
Think it might pay to look outside the top of the market in the Trumiph and I’d say Gordon Elliot’s Shadow Catcher is a decent price at 20/1, had Darroun beaten at Punchestown and looked to be travelling better than the eventual winner Hisaabaat when finding himself in front perhaps a tad earlier than he would have liked and then fluffing the last lto.
Both his flat wins came on Good to firm and with dry weather predicted he might have a squeak especailly with non of the market principals looking anything like unbeatable.
I saw enough in Baby Mix’s race to suggest, that along with some other factors, come Cheltenham we will see an entirely different Saddler’s Risk turn up.
Saddler’s Risk travelled nowhere near as well as he did in his previous run at the same course. He settle much quicker last time and was a bit too keen to get on with things. That can often be a sign of a horse who’s not been doing an awful lot at home and RJ was far from bullish about his chances but makes no secret he thinks an awful lot of the horse.
Cast your mind back to Ascot 2010 when he did the same thing with Menorah before the Neptune and he was beaten by Nicky’s Lush of Life with Ruby having a rare ride for the yard.
Old habits die hard and although the result said differently I think the odds at Kempton were right and Sadlers’ Risk will love the stiff track, reverse placing with Baby Mix and win the Triumph
Saddler’s Risk 9/1 looks a fair bet.
I didn’t realise you gave Philip virtual blowjobs as well as Nicky.
Let’s go through your Cheltenham race by race;
Supreme; Surely Darlan? Not only your boyfriend, but ridden by AP and owned by JP. How many tissues have you used up thinking about that horse exactly?
Arkle; everybody knows, although if he’s a NR, Menorah
Festival Handicap; Surely Quantativeeasing?
Champion Hurdle; Binocular, rather predictably
X-Country; I’m going to go out on a limb and say…one of JP’s. Garde Champetre?
Mares; Hmmm, tricky. No decent Hobbs or Henderson horses. Can’t think of any owned by JP either. I assume you’ll just fail to acknowledge the existence of the race?
Novice handicap; I don’t know enough about the horses, but Nicky’s got the favourite I think? Triolo whatever.
NH Chase; See again, same as the Mares’. Maybe JP will have a runner?
Neptune; How can you possibly realise a Henderson horse who cruises round on the bridle and finds nothing? A bit like you.
RSA; Bob’s Worth
Champion Chase; Finian’s Rainbow or Wishfull Thinking
Coral Cup; Hmmm are you a fan of Jonjo’s? Because Get Me Out Of Here ticks most of the boxes…
Fred Winter; Ozeta
Bumper; Tricky this year, although I guarantee you were on Cheltenian last year.
Jewson; Surely me and you are reading from the same page on this one – Solix?
Pertemps; no clue, I only acknowledge the existence of Buena Vista in this one
Ryanair; Riverside Theatre
World Hurdle; Oscar Whisky
Byrne Plate; Anything trained by Hobbs. Surely you wouldn’t want to be seen giving too much head, I mean favour, to Nicky?
Kim Muir; Shame Galaxy Rock’s not entered, ticks the same boxes as GMOOH in the Coral Cup
Triumph;
Incredible, Nicky’s not got a runner. Poor you. Sadler’s Risk it is then.County Hurdle; Nicky will find something for you to have more wet dreams over, I’m sure
Albert Bartlett; Uh-oh. Nothing from Nicky, nothing from Philip. Another Mares’ Hurdle?
Gold Cup; Long Run or Captain Chris
Foxhunter’s; JP will have a runner or 2 for sure
Martin Pipe; Oooooh Martin’s race, Nicky won’t like that
Grand Annual; But he will like his dad’s race. French Opera, right?
Synchronised, 1pt e/w @ 12/1, generally.
Grandouet, 1pt e/w @ 7/1, generally.
Sizing Europe, 2pt @ 5/2 generally.
Oscar Whisky, 2pt @ 7/4 WITHOUT BIG BUCKS
Sprinter Sacre, 2pt @ 5/2 generally
Last Installment, 1pt e/w @ 8/1 generally.
Cinders And Ashes, 1pt e/w @ 12/1, PPThis is amazing. Truly amazing. A breakthrough.
Only 3 of Nicky’s and 1 of JP’s. None of Hobbs’! He won’t be happy with you when he sees this.
I for one am sick and tired of this feud cluttering up the fine threads we have on this forum, just give it a rest will you, both of you?!
Back on topic, I’m with Z that it’s Grumeti’s race for the taking. Jumping is improving with every run, and the anticipated good ground is right up his street judging on his flat form. 9/2 across the boards now, that 10/1 is looking very good. Don’t think much of the opposition, SR didn’t find much at Kempton, BM bit unpredictable. Shadow Catcher could be a lively outsider, would’ve liked to see him with a run at the course though.
), I’m not particularly happy with the excuse given for his poor run. That may be a bit harsh on connections, but there you go.
Incredible, Nicky’s not got a runner. Poor you. Sadler’s Risk it is then.- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.