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Hurrah! One of the races I look forward to most although I could say that about any four miler.
Unfortunately although this is a 0-150 handicap, the highest mark of those entered is 136, so it’s not one of the best renewals. That said the 136 rated Jass looks to be an improving sort and it would be some effort by either Jass or Lyes Green to win this after such a hard race at Doncaster (I know Jass made it look easy but four miles is four miles). Nevertheless Jass looks as though he could eventually be a 150 horse so you have to think he can improve again.
I also like Iwillrememberyou not just because he ran a good race behind Coe last time out but because he is related to Scottish National winner and Aintree third Moorcroft Boy (through the broodmare Well Mannered).
Obaki De Grissay is also interesting. He had a couple of subsequent winners behind him last time out and his damsire is Italic, sire of The Fellow.
And last but not least is Morgan Be. By Alderbrook out of an Old Vic mare this one just cries out stamina. Four generations back in Morgan’s pedigree is a horse you don’t often see in NH horses….Brigadier Gerard. I like this one.
As to which one of these four I go for, I haven’t yet decided!
Well, no. Lyes Green stayed on very well at Donny but you get the feeling that Jass won with a bit in hand.
Jass and Obaki have previous over marathon trips so you are safe in the knowledge (particularly Jass) that it is not a step into the unknown. Iwillrememberyou stayed 3m 4f ok and he has the pedigree (on his dam’s side at least but worried about the sire) to stay four.
Morgan Be is the one where pedigree alone says that four miles will be within his compass. This is where knowing a little bit about bloodstock can assist you. Alderbrook produced Baron Windrush and Naunton Brook to win over four miles and Old Vic now has a National winner under his belt. And even Alderbrook’s own sire, the mighty Ardross produced four mile winners in his own right like Young Kenny, Ackzo and Scotton Green and Alderbrook has inherited that influence and in turn has passed it down to his progeny. It all seems there for him.
You wait, none of them will run now!
Iwillrememberyou
is my main fancy, lord americos have won me a fair few quid in the past in 4 mile races, and there doesnt seem to be as many of them contesting them these days so he would be my number one.
2nd best is Morgan Be Where this race would look to be a stab in the dark campaign move by connections, I think he could go well for the first time step up if it doesnt come as too much too soon.
The bookies ahve priced up the race now
Iwillrememberyou and Morgan Be are 10-1 each, have just done 1 pt e/w and 1 pt to win on both of them.
Iwillremember you was sat at 7s on the exchanges last night before they priced the race up so am happy with 10s.
Hi Guys,
Well after reading about this race there are a few trends to be wary of. All of the last ten winners had won over at least 3m 1f. Only six of the last 20 winners were aged 10 or over. Seven of the last ten had won at least one of their last two races. My main list at the moment consists of, Jass, Iwillrememberyou, Morgan Be, Lyes Green and Stagecoach Diamond. The trends say three of them can’t win so I’m left with two. My top rated are however, Jass and Iwillrememberyou and a small wager on these two will probably be as far as I go in this. Good luck to the rest of you.
Mike.Lack of interest from southern trainers is disappointing, if this race was run at Donny we’d see more southern runners.
Pass Me By for me – big price and has been running well enough in XC races this season, given his liking for soft ground, marathon trips and being a light enough weighted front runner the 25’s is far too big.
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It isn’t a great race, and I’m generally less than keen to bet in marathons, but
Fair Question
makes plenty of appeal at 9/1.
Though on paper its not the greatest renewal, Comply or Die was only rated 139 last year so his top weight is only 3lb higher than this year’s. That said none of these are former Sun Allaince favourites who also placed in a Hennessy. Do like Pass Me By and Minster Shadow though and think both should stay and are not too harshly treated and are huge prices if putting in their best form.
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