- This topic has 71 replies, 23 voices, and was last updated 18 years ago by
.
-
Posts
-
This looks a cracking renewal with the majority of the best juvenile form coming under scrutiny, with the winners of the National Stakes, Grand Criterium, Champagne, Vintage, Richmond and Superlative Stakes coming together.
However I honestly expect everything to be left trailing in the wake of Teofilo, who I think is potentially the best juvenile we have seen for a long time. Holy Roman Emperor is probably good enough to win an average renewal of the Dewhurst but I cannot see any reason why he should reverse National Stakes form with Teofilo.
If Teofilo or Hamoody win i’ll be happy but i’ll be going hamoody e/w with a good sized wack of my sir percy winnings. Teofilo is a horse i very much like but he is not unbeatable at this distance.
Really looking forwards to seeing Hamoody again.
Very taken with his Goodwood performance given how green he was and the proximity of that to his debut, and having had time and a bit more maturity on his side, I hope he’ll run well tomorrow.
Alan Munro obviously still sidelined but apparently Frankie who takes the ride has been on him on the gallops quite a bit recently to get used to the colt.
I cannot see any reason why he should reverse National Stakes form with Teofilo.
True enough if Holy Roman Emperor gave his running that day, but what makes you think he did?
The third and fourth in that Group 1 have both been beaten further in MAIDENS since than they were by Teofilo.
Just a thought to throw into the melting pot… <br>
I am tingling with anticipation at the thought of seeing Teofilo run again. As we all know it is very rarely that we are priviliged to see a real superstar in action. Perhaps Dancing Brave was the last, although you could argue a case for Pientre Celebre and Nashwan. I do feel however that, coupled with the visual impression of his last race and the subsequent effort of Holy Roman Emperor, beaten senseless that day but good GR 1 winner next time, we might be in store for something really special. Let’s hope so, although Pru has dimmed my optimism somewhat!
I am a fan!
But it does usually pay to see if you can play devil’s advocate in these situations, and I can.
Seldom have I looked forward to a day’s racing as much as I am to this one: at least I can get to see proceedings in the flesh for once!
- Total Posts 17716
Quote: from Prufrock on 7:19 pm on Oct. 13, 2006[br] <br>at least I can get to see proceedings in the flesh for once!
Won’t that get you thrown out?:biggrin:
Mr Manning from stall 4 puts me off a little in quite a large field.  Magniers involved in rather a lot, which I find dubious, but I’ll take one of theirs each way – Adagio. ÂÂÂ
Knows how to fight and by Grand Lodge – I like that.<br>
Hi Prufrock. Trust you are well.
I see no reason for Holy Roman Emperor not to have given his running. Bar his Coventry blip, he has proved admirably consistent and showed when he won the Phoenix that he doesn’t need a strong gallop to show his best. Considering how Teofilo pulled on his debut and in the Futurity, and the fact that Holy Roman Emperor had the 6f form, Teofilo should have been the one (if either of them were) inconvenienced by a steadily-run race.
The fact that the race was run at a crawl (3.8 secs slower than the Futurity on similar going) easily explains why the first Eyshal and Slaney Time could not show their full superiority over the rest of the field. I’ll acknowledge that Teofilo got a better ride than Holy Roman Emperor the time they met, but Holy Roman Emperor was no nearer to Teofilo at the finish than he was when Teofilo hit the front.
Race standards, taking into account the time of the race, distances between rivals and field size all suggest as well that Holy Roman Emperor ran to a similar level in each of those contests. <br>
The fact that the race was run at a crawl…
But you are happy to take the relationship between the first two at face value.
My standards have HRE running better in France than in Ireland (believe it or not, I have been burning the midnight oil in the last week in order to get a handicap up and running), though I have taken an executive decision to overrule them in this instance and to have Teofilo ahead. :cool:
Still, it’s a possibility and worth bearing in mind I reckon.
i think we all saw a different hre at longchamp than we did at the curragh where everything fell into place for telfio the time was outstanding for the french race where hre finished the race in a sprint time and if the ground continues to dry’s out hre will be very hard to beat
Quote: from Prufrock on 7:52 pm on Oct. 13, 2006[brBut you are happy to take the relationship between the first two at face value.<br>
In this instance I am. Guess we’ll see at about 4.15 if I was right or not. :biggrin:
I read something (that was nearly in the papers) that suggested a theory that the Gran Criterium was probably run over distance around 50 yds shorter than advertised. Judging by the Longchamp powers that be managing to get the Arc time wrong by 5 seconds, I trust the opinion of this time analyst far more than the French authorities.
People are getting completely carried away with Teofilo.<br>A lot of they hype is no doubt being generated by his trainer in an attempt to solicit bids from the usual suspects.<br>The ground at the Curragh was tacky and HRE could not pick-up on it. Teofilo also had the advantage of getting first run and having the sprint led out by his stable companion.<br>However, the main disadvantage is his jockey. Horses don’t keep on winning top races without a top jockey and Kevin Manning isn’t one. Sooner or later he will be the cause of the horses downfall.
All 7f races at Longchamp are probably run over about 6.75f.
The opening sectionals on that part of the track have indicated this on each occasion since I first started taking notice of them about 5 years ago.
By the way, I am laying Finsceal Beo tomorrow, back at 7f and without a certainty of the same kind of pace that teed things up so well for her in the Boussac.
She’s pretty good, but perhaps not under these circumstances.ÂÂÂ
The Rockfel has the potential for a bit of an upset with the ‘form’ fillies all having produced there best form under different conditions. Like Prufrock says, Finsceal Beo had the race set up ideally for her at Longchamp and she was able to pick up well off a very strong pace. Not sure they’ll go so quick tomorrow. I’m surprised that Dhanyata is running in this as both her racing style and pedigree suggest she’s a sprinter. English Ballet is another whose best form has come over further though I think she’ll be less inconvenienced by this trip that the other two.
The two interesting ones for me are Shorthand and Sudoor. Shorthand has had just the one run and was very impressive when winning her Nottingham maiden. She needs to improve but looks sure to do so and is also bred to do better, related to several winners including Short Skirt.
I fancied Sudoor to go well in the May Hill and she did for a long way, though found less than seemed likely having travelled as well as anything until over 1f out. It’s possible her attitude could be the problem as she didn’t look straightforward at Sandown but I’ll give her the benefit of the doubt at this stage. If that’s the case, the drop back to 7f should be ideal and she doesn’t have to improve that much to reach a place.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.