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Jesus Christ!
Could you do the same for the home straight at Southwell?
The 5f races there are almost certainly sometimes run over about 4f 205yds.
I have Google Earth but wouldn’t know how to start to measure stuff…
Unfortunately the satellite images of Southwell aren’t detailed enough :(
I’ve actually just gone back to check Longchamp – the course might even be shorter. I’ve got 1487 yards which is pretty much bang on your 6.75f.
Edit: My original measurement of 1504 yards was taken from the very back of the Moyenne Piste spur. However, the images of Longchamp appear to have more detail now compared to when I made that measurement, and you can actually see the marks in the grass where the horses circle and where the starting stalls sit. This knocks the best part of 20 yards off the distance.
(Edited by Gareth Flynn at 9:35 pm on Oct. 13, 2006)
The Dewhurst & the Rockfel both look really good races.
I think Barry Hills always runs his best 2yo filly in the Rockfel, & most of his Rockfel runners take the same route, May Hill &/or the Fillies Mile & then here. He has won the race a couple of times with Maids Causway & Hula Angel. Last year he ran Spinning Queen in this race, her form before the Rockfel wasn’t brilliant but she has become a very good 3yo. So when the RP say "English Ballet, whose limitations are apparent now" it could possibly come back to haunt them next year.
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I’m going for HRE here. The time of the race Teofilo beat him in was slow. The time HRE won his last race in was very fast and he won it "very easily".
I think the going may have a bearing, but if it suits HRE, he seems the value bet to me.
I think so.
He ruthlessly outpointed Holy Roman Emperor last time over the same trip, displaying an outstanding turn of foot in the process. He has improved from race to race and will relish the fast pace that appears certain today.
Quite what he’s doing at nearly 2.88 on BF I don’t know. He’s an even money shot on my card and will be backed accordingly.
At his price for a race like this, i dont think he’s value (same with HRE) hes very vulnerable still running at his minimum trip. I think hamoody is the value of the superbreeds and he can easily shock a few people today if still continuing his midsummer progression.
A brilliant race which looks far from a one horse event, i can still remember milk it mick doing three valleys and haafhd a couple of years back, despite no form before or since.
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Vital Equine has a sniff at around 28/1.<br> Less than 3l behind HRE at Longchamp, the stiffer track and softer ground should at least see him finish a little closer!
A fast pace will actually suit teofilo more so than HRE, that is what made Teofilos last win so impressive as he beat HRE on HREs own terms. They were expecting the pacemaker to set a fast gallop and then he set a slow one and Teofilo didnt just win with 1st run, he wasnt for catching…
Whatever the case, "the value bet" in my more considered opion is not to bet on the race at all!
Yeah the pace will make a huge difference. HRE keeps showing signs of inexperience, but hopefully he will have settled down by now.
"hes very vulnerable still running at his minimum trip".
He was running at the same trip when putting up the season’s clear best 2-y-o performance last time out. Because he looks and is bred to get further does not mean that the proven form he has over 7f can be devalued. that would be entirely illogical and we all know racing is a game of logic.
Isn’t it? :(
Sorry – started another Dewhurst thread in an over-eager Teofilo moment this morning!
This is a tough race. Don’t believe for a minute that it is a two horse affair. Beware this race, it’s a toughie :)
cormack15
<br>Administrator <br>——————————————————————————–<br>"hes very vulnerable still running at his minimum trip".
He was running at the same trip when putting up the season’s clear best 2-y-o performance last time out. Because he looks and is bred to get further does not mean that the proven form he has over 7f can be devalued. that would be entirely illogical and we all know racing is a game of logic.
Isn’t it? <br>
Im not devaluing the form of what hes done so far, what im questioning is how much more improvement is likely to come at his minimum trip as there are others in the field who you would expect to have improvement in them, hes not vulnerable to a horse with better form to date but to one with improvement likely IMO.
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