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Denman Chase 2012

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  • #391748
    SteeplechasingSteeplechasing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5767

    Copy of my recent blog post:

    Two short-priced Festival favourites have their final prep races at Newbury tomorrow. The exciting Sprinter Sacre – held in stratospheric regard by trainer Henderson and jockey Geraghty – is 9/4 fav for the Arkle and 4/7 to win the Game Spirit Chase (12.10) tomorrow.

    He looks a potential superstar after two wins from two steeplechases and should he win tomorrow, that Arkle 9/4 could shorten to 5/4. But I think it’s worth taking the chance that Zaynar (9/1 with Ladbrokes) might lead all the way. The 2009 Triumph Hurdle winner seems to have responded well to a change of trainer and has shown huge zest in his last two runs.

    I think he might benefit significantly from this return to 17f having looked stretched over Ascot’s 22f last time. He’s a classy horse with considerably more experience than Sprinter Sacre and I think, given his price, it’s well worth taking a chance that he will outbattle Sprinter Sacre and throw the Arkle market into disarray.

    Half an hour after this race, Gold Cup holder and current favourite for a successful defence, Long Run, will start around 1/2 to beat five others in the Betfair Denman Chase. Long Run has a fine engine but a dodgy chassis as he doesn’t arch his back properly when under pressure, a weakness which condemns him to dragging his hind legs through fences.

    A six-runner race would, on paper, be ideal as the pace in such races is often fairly sedate. But Tom Scudamore, who excels in front-running rides, will ensure from the outset that his mount, The Giant Bolster has the rest playing catch-up. On the face of it, TGB has plenty to do – he gets 4lbs from Long Run but has to concede 6lbs to the others. Backing him requires a leap of faith in his potential – much more so than with Zaynar.

    He’s regularly shown potential but, due to his tendency to make mistakes, his copybook has more blots than a Rorschach test. However, last time out he finally got everything right and looked a proper horse in doing so, annihilating 9 opponents in a good quality handicap at Cheltenham over 21f. Tomorrow’s extra three furlongs should see him operating to optimum effect and if his fencing is accurate, he might just force the favourite into some energy-sapping errors.

    The defeat of Long Run by any of tomorrow’s opponents will be a shock, but if it is to happen then the unexposed TGB is most likely, in my opinion, to pull it off.

    Both races mentioned have 6 runners. Bookies pay 1/4 odds 1st and 2nd on EW bets and I think two small stake singles and an EW double on Zaynar and The Giant Bolster could well bring a profit, perhaps a big one. Ladbrokes offer best prices at the moment of 9/1 and 14/1 respectively.

    Good luck

    Joe

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #391791
    ZarkavaZarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4708

    Bos, I thought Ruby earned at least a draw at Cheltenham LTO. He didn’t ‘win’, per se, but got him performing. Maybe he’s just not that good anymore. He is 11 after all.

    #391817
    Eclipse First
    Member
    • Total Posts 1569

    At least he didn’t try to unship Ruby last time but then Ruby did not try anything too fancy to get him into a competitive position. He may well have regressed a bit with age as he would be entitled to do but his form is quite consistent so he gets no relief from the handicapper despite very rarely looking like winning a race. If anything he looks a tad overpriced today but we are talking about a horse that has made losing an art form. Nowadays I just hope he comes back safe and sound.

    #391846
    Eclipse First
    Member
    • Total Posts 1569

    Given the rather stagnant nature of the Gold Cup market, Burton Port could propel himself into the mix with a good performance today.

    #391951
    The Young FellaThe Young Fella
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 2072

    Given the rather stagnant nature of the Gold Cup market, Burton Port could propel himself into the mix with a good performance today.

    Forget Burton Port – that run propels

    Diamond Harry

    into the mix! That horse has always laughed contemptuously at Burton Port.

    If his breathing is sorted, then yum yum 40/1!

    #391955
    Eclipse First
    Member
    • Total Posts 1569

    I cannot see a length beating in receipt of a pound as laughing contemptuously, especially as Denman comes out best at the weights from that race. The evidence from the racecourse is that Diamond Harry has regressed whereas Burton Port appears to have retained plenty of his ability.

    #391959
    The Young FellaThe Young Fella
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 2072

    Sure, on the face of one length, it wasn’t a great beating. It was the visual impression that took me. Diamond Harry seemed sure to win with daylight to spare then rather laboured home. Now we know he had a breathing problem, it is plausible that could have been inhibiting him in that race. Finding less than expected is often an indicator of breathing issues.

    It is indeed possible that Diamond Harry has regressed, but I truly believe in the value of that form. I also believe in the excuses for his recent disappointments since they conform with the visual interpretation of his runs.

    With that in mind, I am willing to take the chance that his recent operation will rejuvenate Diamond Harry.

    #391962
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17721

    Whatever happened to Punchy, anyway?

    Retired fld

    #392087
    thisthatandtotherthisthatandtother
    Member
    • Total Posts 149

    Burton Port and Diamond Harry – no comparison after today’s run. The will to win is there with one and not the other.

    #392093
    ZarkavaZarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4708

    Diamond Harry is a soft, fragile, Autumn, flat-track horse if you ask me. Needs to see lots of daylight according to his trainer, doesn’t like being surrounded.

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