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Denman Chase 2012

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  • #20936
    fivelongdays
    Participant
    • Total Posts 610

    Somewhere in Berkshire, late 2011.

    Marketing Bod: Hi guys, Denman’s retired. We should name a race after him.

    Senior Racecourse Bod: Hmm, I don’t think Hennessy will be too pleased. If we dilute the name of their race, they might dilute the free Cognac we get from them.

    Marketing Bod: Hmmm. What about that race where he won it one time by beating three horses, then the next year he got dicked out of sight by Madison Du frickin’ Berlais (bless ‘im), and the other time he jumped like a twat and unseated McCoy?

    Senior Racecourse Bod: You’re a genius! Have a pay rise.

    Right now, February 2012.

    The market for the Denman has opened. Here’s my run down.

    Aiteen Thirtythree: A horse who is the epitome of ‘mediocre’. Pulled up in the RSA, then went to the Hennessy as pretty-much-favourite and then ran really, really badly. Nicholls is clutching at straws, I think.
    VERDICT: Just writing about him made me sleepy.

    Burton Port: What happened the last time this ‘un ran against Long Run? Answers on a postcard please to: FiveLongDays’ Flat Of Iniquity, Vange, Basildon, Essex. I really like this horse, actually, as he’s as gutsy as, but he’s got to be up against it in his first run since last November. Still, you wouldn’t be surprised to see him bag a place, and at the odds, each-way is a serious option.
    VERDICT: A win would be one of the all-time great training performances, but a place would cause wry smiles and shrugged shoulders.

    Carruthers: He won the Hennessy. Hurrah! His jockey is, by all accounts, a nice enough bloke. Hurrah! His owner is Lord Oaksey, all-round good egg. Hurrah! He’s not going to win this, even though he’s got good form here. Not Hurrah!
    VERDICT: Can’t the race be decided by how nice the horse’s owners are? Likes the course, though.

    Halley: A five-year-old French import who’s entered in the Gold Cup? Surely he must be pretty special. Oh, wait, he isn’t.
    VERDICT: Non.

    Little Josh: ‘E’s so li’uhl! An’ ‘e ain’t never won over this distance befowah! ‘An ‘e’s only an ‘andicapper, bless ‘im, an’ ‘e’s so li’uhl it breaks yer bleedin’ ‘eart.
    VERDICT: ‘E’s Only A Tiny Tot!

    Long Run: Probably will win, probably should win, but at odds-on, who cares? The only interesting thing is that if he does, then his odds for the Gold Cup will contract to somewhere around the ‘bad favourite’ mark. Bah, I’m hoping for a Kauto win, anyway.
    VERDICT: Why not take that risk and take him on?

    Medermit: See Little Josh, except with the Senile London accent surgically removed. Probably a better horse than that, though.
    VERDICT: For cryin’ out loud, he’s a two-and-a-half miler, nothing more.

    Mr Moonshine: He’s the Token Novice, he came third in the Peterborough, then he got tonked in the Feltham. Possibly interesting, but probably not.
    VERDICT: See Carruthers, except ‘nicest owner’ should be replaced with ‘coolest name’ and ‘course form’ removed.

    The Giant Bolster: Sometimes he jumps well and wins. Otherwise, he jumps badly and falls. Which one is it to be. Oh, and the last time he ran here, he couldn’t beat Time For Rupert. And Time For Rupert’s crap!
    VERDICT: Do you honestly want to put money on a horse who, the last time he raced at this sort of level, lost to Time For sodding Rupert?

    Tidal Bay: Another ‘interesting’ one. The Law of Averages dictates that, sooner or later, that strong late running will end up with him winning. However, he did run pretty recently, so he might not run in this. Hmmm.
    VERDICT: File under ‘interesting’.

    What A Friend: What? (scowling face, shaven head, goatee) A Friend! (Cheesy Grin, Thumbs Up). What? Horse Friend! What? Alex Ferguson Friend! What? Actually Not A Bad Horse Friend! What? Beat Imperial Commander Friend! What? Good fourth in the Gold Cup Friend! What? Could Come Good This Time Of Year Friend! What? Might Not Like The Ground Friend! What? Awww, Friend!
    VERDICT: Not sure to ‘Gimme a Hell Yeah’ or just point out ‘he’s not my f*ckin’ friend’.

    Anyway, thus endeth the lesson. Let the debate begin!

    FLD

    Twitter=@PGHenn

    So don't run, just like the others always do

    #390125
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17568

    Nice write up fld, you don’t so this enough…….I still remember Punchy…..aah Punchy!!!! :mrgreen:

    #390126
    fivelongdays
    Participant
    • Total Posts 610

    Nice write up fld, you don’t so this enough…….I still remember Punchy…..aah Punchy!!!! :mrgreen:

    That’s because some other bugger’s usually beaten me to it. Whatever happened to Punchy, anyway?

    Twitter=@PGHenn

    So don't run, just like the others always do

    #390251
    BosranicBosranic
    Member
    • Total Posts 1982

    What A Friend: What? (scowling face, shaven head, goatee) A Friend! (Cheesy Grin, Thumbs Up). What? Horse Friend! What? Alex Ferguson Friend! What? Actually Not A Bad Horse Friend! What? Beat Imperial Commander Friend! What? Good fourth in the Gold Cup Friend! What? Could Come Good This Time Of Year Friend! What? Might Not Like The Ground Friend! What? Awww, Friend!
    VERDICT: Not sure to ‘Gimme a Hell Yeah’ or just point out ‘he’s not my f*ckin’ friend’. FLD

    And that’s the bottom line…

    #390417
    Grimes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1891

    Small bets on Carruthers and Burton Port for me. Not a great race for favourites, I believe.

    Carruthers is, apparently, stronger, stays very well, and jumps so boldly and enthusiatically from the front, it can have other horses in trouble before long. Ever hopeful.

    #390419
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17568

    Definitely Medermit for me. 14’s seems a very fair price.

    I know there’s talk in some quarter that he may go for The Gold Cup, but I hope he wins this and still heads for The Ryanair. I’ve only included him in a couple of multis so far, but really fancy him for The Ryanair, and would be one of my bigger bets at The Festival.

    #390420
    ZarkavaZarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4708

    Carruthers adores small fields & has performed well around Newbury, but he needs to improve a stone to get near Long Run, as most of them do.

    #390467
    Blunkett
    Participant
    • Total Posts 423

    I’ll be on The Giant Bolster each way. Different tactics LTO and he blasted off in front which helped his jumping. I think he can see off Caruthers for the lead and is the obvious one for the forecast. A couple could be non stayers, a couple are too slow.

    #391507
    Grimes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1891

    Carruthers adores small fields & has performed well around Newbury, but he needs to improve a stone to get near Long Run, as most of them do.

    I know, Zark. I bet on him in the Gold Cup, but something tells me he might never fulfill his remaining potential. But I don’t think it’s based on reason, or intuition, so much as a wish to get a better price about another horse.

    #391674
    elgransenor1
    Member
    • Total Posts 625

    I have a feeling that Long Run will win this easily but will get turned over in the Gold Cup.

    Strange time to have this race though, half 12 in the afternoon.

    #391679
    The Young FellaThe Young Fella
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 2072

    Conceding 10lbs to Burton Port and What A Friend is quite a task for Long Run. I hope What A Friend wins or goes very close here to maintain my view that he has big chance in the Gold Cup.

    It will also be interesting to see how Burton Port gets on. If he runs near his best, we can get an idea of how a peak form Diamond Harry rates in comparison to Long Run. That could be very useful information now that DH has had his breathing patched up.

    #391725
    HimselfHimself
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3772

    I think Long Run is well up to the task of giving weight all round to this field.

    I suggest SWC takes the bull by the horns and kicks on four out.
    Just a thought. :)

    Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

    #391727
    BosranicBosranic
    Member
    • Total Posts 1982

    It’s quite easy to get lost in the formbook for a race like this – four of the six runners represent the two most powerful yards in the country.

    What A Friend is offically rated 12lb superior to his stablemate Tidal Bay, but Ruby is booked to ride the latter. What A Friend has a couple of tougher assignments in the near future, so will he be fully tuned for this after a lengthy absence? Tidal Bay is…well, Tidal Bay. You gotta love the ol’ enigmatic, equine professor, but he’s not one to rely on, is he? Another who has a couple of big targets coming up in the near future. Oh, for those interested the current score is Tidal Bay 2 : Ruby Walsh 0.

    With many questioning the respective ability of Waley-Cohen, he has a talented stablemate in the shape of Burton Port, ridden by a man that many feel would make Long Run an entirely different proposition. Waley-Cohen Snr has expressed an ‘over my dead body’ stance to his baby boy being jocked off and all eyes will be on the reigning Gold Cup champion. A champion who has plenty to prove at present after being handed his rump by a reckless OAP trying to recapture his youth!

    Burton Port is the proverbial ‘small horse with a big heart’. He arguably would not be the hardest to get fit and goes well fresh. Runner-up in both the RSA and Hennessy, Newbury plays to his strengths and he is a danger if back to his best. Considering his last effort was November 2010, that has to be a big question mark.

    One can argue that The Giant Bolster has plenty to find, particuarly with a 6lb penalty, but after laughing at Prestbury Park last time out I argue that perhaps this is a new dawning for the horse. Granted a new role that he approached with plenty of enthusiasm, The Giant Bolster ran his rivals ragged and basically won as he pleased. Only a 7YO, there could be more to come and who is there to challenge him for supremacy at the head of the field?

    Long Run is clearly the one to beat, but he is being asked to concede 10lb to some established, quality animals. The problem is that these rivals have question marks of their own and it could be left to the one horse who really shouldn’t win on offical ratings to come out on top in what could prove a tactical affair – The Gaint Bolster. Fresh from his a recent success, there are no question marks over his fitness and he could enjoy an uncontested lead up front. The one horse who could quite easily take him on is the favourite, but how will his jumping stand up? With that in mind, how will The Giant Bolster’s if challenged early on?!

    Intriguing contest on so many levels.

    #391737
    The Young FellaThe Young Fella
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 2072

    Nice analysis there, Bosranic. I like your point about the race becoming a tactical affair. It would be very frustrating if there was a muddling pace as its relevance to the Gold Cup would be minimal.

    I think the Paul Nicholls jockey bookings are unimportant, though. Daryl Jacob will ride What A Friend at Cheltenham so it makes sense for him to keep the ride here. I share your concerns about him possibly being a little short of fitness, though. Nevertheless, my optimism for What A Friend is bolstered since The

    Denman

    Chase is probably quite important to the stable. DUCY?

    I think if any horse is going to be short of fitness, it could be Long Run. This is his prep after all.

    #391740
    BeauRanger
    Participant
    • Total Posts 376

    Be interesting to see how Burton Port gets on – he has some interesting form 8)

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