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None of the godolphin trainers have landed the craven but godolphin have rarely started a season better.
Aiden O’Brien had never won the free handicap before yesterday either.
lies, damned lies, and statistics.
It’s amazing that the winner of the Racing Post Trophy will go off at bigger odds for the Craven than at Doncaster.
why is it amazing? it got well beaten last time it was at this track.
I understand why it was just the historical peculiarity of it I was commenting on, not Rivet himself. In season’s past the RPT winner would be short odds if they ran in the Craven.
I think you overrate that race as a contest. Ok Camelot bucked the trend but if you go over recent winners a number of them were well beaten in their next start and several were stuffed in the guineas.
OK if you go much further back you get some legendary names.
But in recent seasons you see a trend away from the racing post trophy as a race to aim your best two year old at. Probably because the emphasis is on speed now with the breeding industry and so many of the winners had a bad record in the guineas. Some of the recent winners have been horses like Ibn Khaldun, Crowded House, Casamento, Elm Park, Marcel.
What happened to them?
It’s entirely possible of course that rivet could be a cut above that lot, we’ll find out more today.
Quite right the race doesn’t throw up Champions every single year but who knows that before their next run? If you look at the prices RPT winners went off on their next run that wasn’t in a Classic they’re usually shorter than 4/1.
Elm Park, 7/2
Crowded House, 2/1f
Authorized, 10/11f
Palace Episode, 10/3
Motivator, EVNSf
American Post, 4/11f
Brian Boru, 11/4
High Chaparral, 4/6f
Dilshaan, 9/4fAnd those runs usually came in better races than the Craven (no disrespect to the race).
Yeah but given how some were hammered I doubt it mattered what race they were running in.
And what difference does the price make if you get beat?
anyway good luck with your rivet bet.
Until last season The Racing Post Trophy winners would have had a 3 lb penalty for the Craven.
Generally speaking the Doncaster race winners have a career path aimed at the Derby and with that in mind a Craven-Guineas path may be one race too much before Epsom, so it’s been a case of straight to the Guineas in the main.
You have to feel that War Decree is probably going to be an intrinsically faster colt than Rivet and Market confidence is there.
Rivet has also had more runs than most and his trainer rarely seems to line up for the 2000 Guineas with a really solid contender.
Enough negative and the Racing Post Trophy looked filled with slow horses last season. I actually backed Rivet at the opening 7/1 for that race because of that.
There is finally some support for Rivet, no doubt drawn in by a feeling the odds were too big.
Eminent is pretty friendless at 8/1.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Saeed Bin Suroor has said Benbatl will be better when tackling 10f and 12f. He also stated that some ease in the ground would have been preferable. He says he wants to see the horse handy early. Money for Rivet now. War Decree a bit weak late on.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Sorry thought in my excitement that benbatl finished 2nd.
Rivet ran very well.
Larchmont lad rather ran to my feeling- that the form was there, but there was something about the horse that I didn’t like.
War Decree very disappointing.
Well done Jac, delighted for you. You kept the faith from the start and the horse didn’t let you down. Obviously I am vexed he didn’t run in the Fielden, where he would surely have hosed home.
Larchmont Lad didn’t seem to stay and War Decree was beaten early, pretty feeble effort from him. Rivet ran OK and the Godolphin horse was sound enough upped to this grade.
Nice for Frankel and Dream Castle may yet do something in the Greenham. You get the feeling he is the one with more pace than Benbatl. I just wish I hadn’t focused on Eminent as more of a Derby horse. He made a monkey of that notion today.
Best of luck for the 2000 Guineas Jac. Surely Churchill has more opposition than looked likely when the season started.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well done Judge and Jac. He won that comfortably in the style of a horse with quite a bit to come. Not as flashy as his sire but knows how to get the job done and a faster pace should benefit him.
Exciting times for Frankel fans.
With the varying degrees of fitness on display at this meeting it is hard to be certain about very much going forward.
The close proximity of the fourth (who was closing) would seem to cast doubt about the overall value of the form.
War Decree bombed. Is O’Brien in form or out of form?
I thought that when he picked up Benbatl was going to win but the surge was not maintained and it looked as if he was outstayed. His failure to settle (don’t remember that being an issue at Doncaster) cost him at least one place. On this evidence it looks as if he might be quicker than his pedigree would suggest and a drop back for something like the Jersey might be the best bet.
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