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William Haggas’ Rivet narrowly heads the betting for the Craven Stakes, sitting at 3/1, with War Decree next best at 10/3.
Some contenders are multiply entered this week, making matters a bit more tricky but it is hoped that a bit of value can be found.
Starting with War Decree, we have to note that Aidan O’Brien has never landed the Craven Stakes. If we add to that stat the fact that War Decree is unlikely to be more than 90% fit on debut, and that he never ran after July last year, we have enough in my opinion to rule him out as value at the odds currently.
Coming to Rivet next, we have to be worried that William Haggas has a slight concern that the horse wasn’t at his best at the track last time in the Dewhurst. There is a worry that the colt may not like the track and Haggas has said that if the horse doesn’t act here this time, he won’t run at the track again. That has to be a worry and the Haggas stable have been quite quiet so far this season and he said going into the Lincoln that some of his entries for that race were behind schedule. The biggest concern I have though, is that there is just no link whatever between the Racing Post Trophy winner and the following year’s Craven Stakes winner. Going back to 1980, none of the horses who won the Racing Post Trophy (William Hill Futurity) went on to land the Craven the following Spring. Those are enough reasons to oppose Rivet at the odds.
Dream Castle comes next and the son of Frankel got off to an excellent start when demolishing his field in a maiden at Doncaster. He could be anything of course and it’s a bold move trying him here. However, this is a different ball game and being only 2pts bigger than a Group 1 winner for winning a maiden is a tad ridiculous. The two also rans from Dream Castle’s maiden to have come out since both got thrashed by about 8 lengths further the next time they ran, last of 7 and 2nd last of 16. Plenty of reason to see him as poor value at 5/1 here and I feel he’ll be a drifter on the day.
Eminent is next at 8/1 and he needs no introduction to the forum because of the Frankel and Fielden threads already covering him. I am a bit surprised they opted for the Craven as the trainer had said he was concerned if the mile will be far enough. Another promising sort who could be anything but this looks a good bit tougher than the Fielden and I think the trainer has made a mistake pitching him this high straight from maiden company. I feel others may have more toe.
Some of the others are multiply entered so I will close with my selection for the Craven.
I feel Larchmont Lad is the bet here. The Hannon horse got his career off to a good start when winning a Sandown maiden in grand style. Five other horses from that race amassed 7 wins subsequently. He then ran third behind Rodaini in the Listed Flying Scotsman at Doncaster, going down by a head and a nose after pulling hard. The second horse there, Salsabeel, may have franked the form by the time Larchmont Lad lines up. In any event Larchmont Lad went on to lift the Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes, where he beat a decent looking field, keeping on gamely. Red Hot favourite that day, Escobar, flopped and it was Whitecliffsofdover who chased the Hannon colt home, with 3rd, 4th and 5th, Sir Dancealot, Best Solution and Law And Order all winning since. Larchmont Lad is a son of Footstepsinthesand and he promises to be suited by the step up to a mile. I get the feeling he is Hannon’s best Guineas shot this year. Officially rated 110 it seems crazy value that he can be backed at 9/1. He’s won at the course, he’s likely to be fit and he’s miles ahead, on current ratings, of a horse who is almost half his odds for this race. That makes no sense to me. The stable have also landed 4 of the last 5 runnings of the race and 7 of the last 16. What more do you want? Jam on it as well?
Craven Stakes Larchmont Lad 9/1 (Nap) I can’t see him any bigger than 5/1 on the day. I’ll be filling my modest small boots.
It might be worth a tickle for the Craven and Guineas as a double,
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
What do you think of Benbati of Godolphin Steve?
Very impressive at Donny in a maiden admittedly but could be anything and 10/1 could be a nice each way bet if it turns up
What do you think of Benbati of Godolphin Steve?
Very impressive at Donny in a maiden admittedly but could be anything and 10/1 could be a nice each way bet if it turns up
I got the impression Dream Castle was more highly regarded Raymo. In any case, I can’t back a maiden winner at 10/1 when a Group 3 winner, from the leading stable for this race in recent years sits only one point lower.
Benbatl won easily last time but the 3rd horse there, Jewel House, of John Gosden’s yard, was a three time raced modest enough maiden rated 80 coming into the race. The Gosden horse was actually dropped a 1lb for that effort.
Benbatl is rated 95 but he faces horses rated 115, 113 and 110 this time around, so can he claim a place? These horses are more than two stones better than Jewel House, so there is a lot more on his plate this time.
Dream Castle is rank value at 5/1.
Khafoo Shememi is said to work with Hannon’s Guineas contenders at home and the trainer was delighted to see that horse romp home easily the other day. The stable are 11/52 for 21% strike rate this past fortnight and I think Larchmont Lad is a nailing bet at 9/1 with the doubts I have mentioned on those ahead of him in the betting.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
What do you think of Benbati of Godolphin Steve?
Very impressive at Donny in a maiden admittedly but could be anything and 10/1 could be a nice each way bet if it turns up
I flagged this up elsewhere as being visually one of the best two maiden winners I have seen this season. Although the times were very similar I thought that on the day he looked more impressive than the horse who is 5/1. You might have expected a more gradual step up the ladder but on the day he looked pretty professional and very straightforward. If they all lined up on the day I might be tempted to have a little dabble at 10/1. Don’t think there is too much point at this stage guessing if he might run or not.
I have to say I’m not a big form man like steve is (and not as good a punter) but watching the larchmont lad race today he looked laboured in winning, they finished in a heap and I didn’t think much of that race. It would go against my instincts to back him.
I’d really like to back it given the stables record in this but I’m struggling to convince myself to back it. Of the others I can see this eminent going close.
I have to say I’m not a big form man like steve is (and not as good a punter) but watching the larchmont lad race today he looked laboured in winning, they finished in a heap and I didn’t think much of that race. It would go against my instincts to back him.
I’d really like to back it given the stables record in this but I’m struggling to convince myself to back it. Of the others I can see this eminent going close.
For me the impressiveness of a horse’s win can only be measured in the context of the opposition.
It is easy to look impressive when beating modest opponents.
Larchmont Lad might not have looked startling, maybe he was laboured to the eye but it depends what he beat. It’s not easy to thrash good horses.
Whitecliffsofdover didn’t run again last season but the third horse, Sir Dancealot, won a Listed race at York next time out before probably finding a mile beyond him in the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy, yet not disgraced in 6th beaten just over 4 lengths by Rivet.
The 4th horse in Larchmont Lad’s race, Best Solution, went on to win the Group 3 Autumn Stakes, before finishing runner up to Waldgeist in group 1 company, beaten just a length. Things haven’t panned out for Best Solution at Meydan this Spring but there is no doubt he was a smart 2yo.
If we compare Larchmont Lad to Eminent, we see Eminent running out a cosy and impressive winner. The horse could be anything but for now he is a horse who beat John Gosden’s Vantage Point in his maiden. Vantage Point took until his fifth race before he landed his maiden win, rated 78 at the time. The horse has since run in a Handicap and scrambled home by a short head off a mark of 80. Vantage Point was shipped out of Gosden’s yard after his maiden win to go to Gary Moore and he changed owners from Magnier/Tabor/Smith, who must have decided to cut their losses on the son of Galileo.
The winter months can make a monkey of us all, with horses coming forward rapidly while others regress. However, for now, Eminent is rated 87 and Larchmont Lad 110. Which one would you pick to save your life?
I am trusting that Hannon will be looking to keep his Craven record alive and he surely took one of his best to the gig?
I must admit I didn’t check the Meade yard’s form but I was alarmed when I did. He hasn’t had a horse out since 14th March and he only ran two last month. I think he has only had 8 runners this year, with one winner on the 2nd of February. This has to be a question mark for me about the yard form and a further reason to favour a Hannon yard who are 12/52 and 23% this past two weeks.
The trouble with this racing game is that you can put the time in and be woefully wrong but I feel it’s better than just taking a fancy to one without considering all the elements.
I felt there were enough doubts about some of them and enough positives about Larchmont Lad to make him the value at 9/1. He seemed a lock each way to me with the field likely to pare down a fair bit by Thursday.
Good Luck to all.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It’s not certain that Larchmont Lad will run in The Craven Steve he hasn’t been jocked up, I hope he does but there are several now with doubts as to whether they run in the race or not, last year only 6 ran and in 2015 when Kool Kompany won only seven turned out.
Salsabeel is running tomorrow in the 2.55 EBF Stallions (Plus 10) Conditions.I’m sticking with my original choice EMINENT and unlike yourself I do agree with Martyn Meades decision to run him over the mile, I always hoped he would chose The Craven for this horse and expect to see him asserting down the Rowley Mile on Thursday pulling away from what is now looking a very weak field. Not too worried about the form of Martyn Meade’s yard at the moment he trains on a very small scale but has several very talented horses such as Aclaim and Irish Rookie along with Eminent now and for me there’s nothing better than seeing one of the smaller yards have the occasional triumph over the bigger boys, wish him well on Thursday.
Although he might need a little more give in the ground than he is going to get on Thursday it has to be….
EMINENT to win
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...It’s not certain that Larchmont Lad will run in The Craven Steve he hasn’t been jocked up, I hope he does but there are several now with doubts as to whether they run in the race or not, last year only 6 ran and in 2015 when Kool Kompany won only seven turned out.
Salsabeel is running tomorrow in the 2.55 EBF Stallions (Plus 10) Conditions.I’m sticking with my original choice EMINENT and unlike yourself I do agree with Martyn Meades decision to run him over the mile, I always hoped he would chose The Craven for this horse and expect to see him asserting down the Rowley Mile on Thursday pulling away from what is now looking a very weak field. Not too worried about the form of Martyn Meade’s yard at the moment he trains on a very small scale but has several very talented horses such as Aclaim and Irish Rookie along with Eminent now and for me there’s nothing better than seeing one of the smaller yards have the occasional triumph over the bigger boys, wish him well on Thursday.
Although he might need a little more give in the ground than he is going to get on Thursday it has to be….
EMINENT to win
JacRichard Hannon said the other day that Larchmont Lad goes to the Craven. In a Guardian article dated 15th April he was quoted in reference to this being the time of the year where bubbles burst and he said:-
“We’ll check those bubbles next week,” he said. “Larchmont Lad goes to the Craven, Barney Roy goes to the Greenham and Majeste goes to the Free Handicap. They’re all great, yeah, very pleased with them, they’re running well
I am hoping he was not speaking with forked tongue.
Good luck with Eminent. He could be anything but for now I see Hannon’s colt as the best value.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Thanks Steve, I really hope Larchmont Lad turns out he certainly holds all the credentials of a Craven winner, good luck with him.
I’m going to shut up about Eminent you’ll be pleased to hear
the studying is done for the first day and I’m looking forward to seeing all the horses over the 3 days I’ll be going to Newmarket.Countdown to the official start of the flat starts now and by Thursday evening we will be a lot wiser and I hope richer, even if we get it wrong we will have learnt something for future reference..Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...What do you think of Benbati of Godolphin Steve?
Very impressive at Donny in a maiden admittedly but could be anything and 10/1 could be a nice each way bet if it turns up
I flagged this up elsewhere as being visually one of the best two maiden winners I have seen this season. Although the times were very similar I thought that on the day he looked more impressive than the horse who is 5/1. You might have expected a more gradual step up the ladder but on the day he looked pretty professional and very straightforward. If they all lined up on the day I might be tempted to have a little dabble at 10/1. Don’t think there is too much point at this stage guessing if he might run or not.
De Sousa jocked up so it looks as if he is going to run. Bet 365 standout at 10/1 and it will be surprising and disappointing if he goes off bigger. Only probable downside as they sponsor you might well get 1/4 on the day. Little disappointing that they haven’t given Gordon another go but as I said he didn’t look anything other than straightforward at Doncaster. The extra furlong should be a plus so just a question as to whether he is good enough.
Sean Levey rides Larchmont Lad.
Only seven runners left in. Benbatl represents Godolphin, Dream Castle was taken out. 4/1 for him wasn’t a good bet then after all.
Larchmont Lad is 5/1 now and I have three places in a seven runner field with 2 33/1 shots in it.
War Decree is 9/4 Fav with Rivet 5/2, Benbatl is 5/1 and Eminent 6/1.
Happy enough with my position here. The hard part remains of course.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Must admit none of the form horses here convince me.
Think it could be a similar story to the Nell Gwyn with a once raced maiden winner taking the race.
Tempted to double dutch Eminent/Benbati.
Have double dutched Eminent/Benbati indeed.
Actually feeling fairly confident which is rare for me. Just a gut feeling that the more established horses won’t be winning here. Think this eminent will provide a mini-upset and give a boost to frankel fans.
I am happy with my 10/1 Benbati and I shall watch with interest to see if the Donny maiden form is any good!
I see Whitecliffsofdover gave Larchmont’s form a boost but Sir Dancealot didn’t LOL He did look like he seriously needed it though!! And Majeste didn’t exactly advertise the form of Hannon’s horses!!
3rd place in benbatls maiden won quite well yesterday, which is a half decent form boost (albeit was just a maiden)
Race fitness could prove to be key here and benbatls certainly one of note if he wins ill be happy but i wont be backing him until i see another race, i really avoid backing “anythings” as a strict rule for myself, 9/10 they end up being average
If rivet or war decree turn up 90% then it will be a 1-2 (rivet first
)Will play small on the S/F and hope your benbati tickets are winners
good luckMajeste being in the Free Handicap suggested he was Hannon’s weakest chance this week.
Sir Dancealot was as fat as Pavarotti and one horse letting the form down is no big deal. It’s an inexact game in general. The 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th from the Tattersalls all won races after running behind Larchmont Lad. Two Group threes and two listed winners.
If Sir Dancealot let Larchmont Lad down, he also put a knife in Rivet as well. Rivet’s form looks a whole lot more ropey that Larchmont Lad’s.
Yucatan was beaten by a horse rated a stone lower. Sir Dancealot was beaten further today than he was when probably fit and unsuited by the mile behind Rivet. Brutal was thrashed next time and Salouen was beaten by a horse rated 15 lbs lower in Listed company, not great for a Group 1 runner.
The only horse to come from the Racing Post Trophy and win was The Anvil, who won an egg and spoon maiden at Dundalk this spring, over an extended 10F trip. Not saying it was a bad race but I think Boaty McBoatface was second in that contest.
Timeform are glossing over Rivet’s poor show at Newmarket last year, putting forward that connections are willing to risk him again at the track. Hello! the Guineas is at Newmarket, there’s no effing option but try to find out if the horse acts at the track!
That’s poor logic in my opinion, win or lose. William Haggas has already said he is not sure if the horse likes the track and that they are running him here to find out one way or the other. Better to know now and aim him somewhere else, rather than go to the Greenham, then move on and find out at Newmarket that he doesn’t act on the course and meantime have missed a proper, dedicated, tilt at another country’s Guineas in finding out. I feel that’s not very professionally thought through.
War Decree has the level of class and Whitecliffsofdover winning is a boost to confidence. He has been absent a while though and this is his stiffest stamina test yet. Goodwood was a very different track and I have seen horses who won there not look as hot elsewhere. Overall, I would say he will have the legs of Rivet and Haggas has never landed the Craven either.
None of Godolphin’s trainers have landed the Craven either. That’s really odd to see that these top stables have not got a win between them in such a traditional Classic build up race.
Hannon has had 29 win or placed from his last 64 runners this last two weeks. That’s pretty good I feel.
Good luck everyone.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Rivet seems very weak in the betting and I would have though that seeing 4/1 on him would be sending shudders of concern through the bodies of his fans.
Rivet opened at 9/4 Fav in a place, Larchmont Lad was 9/1. Now they are 4/1 and 9/2 respectively. That’s a major tidal change in the odds of those two.
War Decree is the one for money despite the word that he is expected to need today’s race. He’s a tad skinny to my eyes at 7/4.
Benbatl is pretty steady at 5/1 and Larchmont Lad probably a shade stronger in the market. If Rivet keeps drifting the way he has started it seems possible he may end up 4th best in the betting, a concept surely unthinkable on Monday of this week?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
the studying is done for the first day and I’m looking forward to seeing all the horses over the 3 days I’ll be going to Newmarket.
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