Craven Stakes 2017

[stevecaution]

It’s hard to make any real case for Rivet reversing form with Eminent. The Meade horse has taken a big leap forward and put the Racing Post Trophy winner in his place fairly comfortably.

Then comes the question of how near Rivet ran to his Doncaster Group 1 form? The evidence suggests that he was some way below it.

Rivet has now faced Contrapposto three times. The first time was in a maiden, where Rivet was 3 and a quarter lengths ahead. As the season progressed Rivet improved and by the time the two clashed in the Racing Post Trophy the Haggas horse had established an 11 and a half length superiority over the same horse.

In the Craven however, Rivet only managed to hold off his old sparring partner by 2 lengths and a neck. The deemed inferior horse by 23 lbs on official ratings had gotten more than 9 lengths closer from their last meeting at the same trip.

With War Decree a flop it’s important to get a handle on how well Rivet actually ran. Benbatl and Eminent had plenty of scope coming in but it seems less likely that Contrapposto took a similar leap forward.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

The Racing Post have given Rivet as running 8 lbs below his Racing Post Trophy mark. The obvious elephant in the room of their figures is that they have put Contrapposto up 11 lbs to 103 to prevent the need to lower Rivet’s performance even further. I feel it’s possible that Rivet ran below 108 and Contrapposto didn’t come forward as believed by RPR figures.

Racing Post Trophy 4th Raheen House was readily outpaced by Gosden’s maiden winner Shutter Speed yesterday. Unless the are going to award Shutter Speed a mega rating, it is going to be a case that Raheen House didn’t run to 110, thus joining others from that race who haven’t run to their figure. Odd then that Contrapposto went up 11 lbs?

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[The Ante-Post King]

Triptych wrote:

Thanks Gord. Never been in doubt that this was the race for him and the Guineas is the same distance so no reason why he can’t make it 3 x wins on the course. I’m not so sure about the Derby for him just like his dad not sure how he will handle those bends, what do you think?

I think if the ground came up soft at Newmarket Eminent could go off Fav Jac,his action is one of a horse who hits the ground hard so on really fast ground I’d be worried.I also believe Rivet would prefer softer ground too and I’d expect him to pose a bigger threat in the 2000 gns if he turns up but give me a Craven winner over a Greenham winner for the 1st classic of the year everytime.As for the Derby?…No,he’s just too big and gangly still but I do think he’ll get the 11/2m trip no problem and can see him running in Ascots King george.

[stevecaution]

The Ante-Post King wrote:

Triptych wrote:

Thanks Gord. Never been in doubt that this was the race for him and the Guineas is the same distance so no reason why he can’t make it 3 x wins on the course. I’m not so sure about the Derby for him just like his dad not sure how he will handle those bends, what do you think?

I think if the ground came up soft at Newmarket Eminent could go off Fav Jac,his action is one of a horse who hits the ground hard so on really fast ground I’d be worried.I also believe Rivet would prefer softer ground too and I’d expect him to pose a bigger threat in the 2000 gns if he turns up but give me a Craven winner over a Greenham winner for the 1st classic of the year everytime.As for the Derby?…No,he’s just too big and gangly still but I do think he’ll get the 11/2m trip no problem and can see him running in Ascots King george.

To me it sounded like Haggas won’t run Rivet in the Newmarket Guineas. He was quick to reflect that the horse would be suited by 10F. He then said it would still be likely that he would run in A Guineas but that whether that was in England, Ireland or France, he simply didn’t know.

This is what I don’t like about William Haggas. His instinct is that the horse needs further but he is still going to piss about looking for a Guineas. If the horse needs a trip, give him a bloody trip. A vain attempt at shorter just wastes a race where he could be getting ready for a tilt at a Derby. Haggas himself said he had the horse entered in every race going. Make a plan and stick to it. Titting about hasn’t worked for William Haggas in the past, probably part of the reason for his modest record at top level.

William Haggas used to think he was indecisive but now he’s not so sure

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[LD73]

Would have thought York’s Dante would have been tailor made for Rivet, a big open flat galloping track and it is not usual for the ground to be a bit easier up there at that time of year either.

Alternatively the French 2000g on Deauville’s straight mile with some give in the ground could be a viable option as I don’t see anyway he can turn round the Craven form as going into the race Eminent had less experience and being a more imposing size of horse is likely to come on more for the run than Rivet would.

[Triptych]

The Ante-Post King wrote:

Triptych wrote:

Thanks Gord. Never been in doubt that this was the race for him and the Guineas is the same distance so no reason why he can’t make it 3 x wins on the course. I’m not so sure about the Derby for him just like his dad not sure how he will handle those bends, what do you think?

I think if the ground came up soft at Newmarket Eminent could go off Fav Jac,his action is one of a horse who hits the ground hard so on really fast ground I’d be worried.I also believe Rivet would prefer softer ground too and I’d expect him to pose a bigger threat in the 2000 gns if he turns up but give me a Craven winner over a Greenham winner for the 1st classic of the year everytime.As for the Derby?…No,he’s just too big and gangly still but I do think he’ll get the 11/2m trip no problem and can see him running in Ascots King george.

Many thanks Gord, your thoughts are much appreciated and confirm what I was worrying about and now hope Martyn Meade doesn’t go down The Derby route with him if he is successful in the 2000 Guineas which I am feeling very confident about now, and as you say any give in the ground will definitely be in his favour.

I loved watching him come into the dip and then push on up the hill last week, Rivet impressed in defeat and more to come from both horses with their preferred ground

After seeing Eminent last year I couldn’t wait for him to come out again and The Craven was the perfect race for him, now he has to do what Haafhd did in 2004 and continue on to win the 2000 Guineas, whatever happens I’m going to follow him until he retires to stud with his dad.
Good luck for the Season Jac X

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