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1st thread – didn’t keep score but we’ll call it a loss
2nd thread – +£586.00
3rd thread – +£160.00Think it’s an idea to start a new thread before the World Cup kicks off, gives plenty of time to run up a few Ante Post bets for the season proper starts.
Everyone is welcome to chuck in their bets/thoughts.
For those new to the circus I tend to bet small but often and try and pinch a profit along the way. Tend to aim at correct scores, win to nils but nothing is ruled out. May throw in a few Mr Green ups into the equation along the way which has been a way I’ve pinched a few quid from time to time.I’ll start with a small bet on the Championship. I think Stoke look short enough. I’d imagine their key players will be setting off to pastures new with the keeper and Shaqiri stood at the exit door waiting for it to be opened. Rowett could bring in some decent replacements but I’ll pass on them at the price. I think Derby have underachieved over the past 3 or 4 years but have still been thereabouts, they have the players but have not quite gone through with it and while it may take time for Lampard to settle into the job the 20’s with bet365 they have tempted me to part with a few shillings. It’s possible he’s able to attract some decent players to the club. I’m having a small bet now and then wait to nearer the time when more of the transfers have gone through and bookies offering more places
20/1 Derby Championship 1/4 odds 1,2,3 £2.00 Each Way
-£4.00
Blackbeard to conquer the World
I was waiting for the highest scoring team market and expected Uruguay to be shorter at around 12’s to 16’s so had to have a quid with Ladbrokes at 28/1. Cavani and Suarez up front and probably the best group to be in with Russia, Egypt and Saudi Arabia should progress and hopeful get a decent amount of goals from the three games.
28/1 Uruguay Highest scoring team £1.00
-£5.00
Blackbeard to conquer the World
I’ll be kicking the World Cup off with a little system
I’ve checked the odds for either team to score a penalty in a match for the 1st 11 matches and they range from 7/2 to 5/1 with the majority being around the 4/1 mark. VAR can work both ways but the refs if unsure without VAR would normally wave play on, with VAR they are much more likely to take a look and that gives more possibility to a spot kick being awarded. The flip side is them awarding a pen then VAR rules it out but I think more penalty’s will be awarded with the VAR system than the ones the ref gets wrong although this is the World Cup and I’ve seen plenty of shocking refs over the years.I’m not sure it’s the best system in the world but will give it a run with stop at a winner or 11 game flop.
So with the Maths to clear a small profit we’ll call it to clear 7/2 and the points basis as followed.
1pt = 4.5 = 3.5 profit overall minimum if 7/2
1pt = 4.5 = 2.5 profit
1pt = 4.5 = 1.5 profit
2pt = 9.0 = 4.0 profit
2pt = 9.0 = 2.0 profit
3pt = 14.5 = 4.5 profit
3pt = 14.5 = 1.5 profit
5pt = 23.5. = 5.5 profit
6pt = 29 = 5.0 profit
8pt = 36 = 4.0 profit
10pt = 47 = 5.0 profitMy brain Isn’t the brightest but I think the above is correct
I only bet small so if converting the points into pounds it works out at £42 spread over 11 games which works out at under £4 per game
you can also bet on penalty in match which is around the 3/1 – 10/3 mark and takes the miss out of the equation but I’ll stick to the either team to score for the added drama….
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Can’t think of a much worse match to kick off a world cup
Not had more than a glance at the market, had Saudi Arabia been 1/1 +2 goals on the handicap I may have had a play but they are 8/13 best price.
So it’s just the VAR system/Penalty scored for tomorrow9/2 Russia v Saudi Arabia – Penalty to be Scored £1.00
-£6.00
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Derby are a good price Nath.
Nothing from me at the mo, will be having a look at the weekend
I couldn’t back the bottlers Derby with counterfeit Nath. If they start well like usual though you could trade at Christmas on them for a profit.
For the World Cup, done Griezmann top scorer at 9/1 and Brazil to win it at 9/2.
Played under 2.5 goals in the Russia Saudi Arabia game to kick off many Yankees and other multiples.
Good luck for the season lads
Yes, I don’t trust Derby either MOM but they are normally a lot shorter than the 20’s, things can change from season to season and it was more to do with the price than anything else, only a small bet so nothing to worry about, will take a proper look nearer the start of August when the squads are settled and bookies offer that extra place or two.
similar too when I wasn’t expecting Welbeck to make the England squad when he was 20’s. if Derby were a football player they could very well be Welbeck.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Don’t think the ref in the 1st game understood the meaning of VAR
Thought I had a half chance of a review in the 1st half
I’ve got Uruguay down as the team to score a lot of goals, they know how to defend and I think they will take the Egyptians tomorrow.13/8 Uruguay -1 goal £3.00
4/1 Egypt v Uruguay – Penalty to be Scored £1.00-£10.00
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Morocco look the stronger side of the two, not that I know a great deal about either. Recent results suggest Morocco can defend and I’ve played them in the win to nil market along with the pen system
5/1 Morocco v Iran – penalty to be scored £1.00
11/5 Morocco to win to nil £2.00-£13.00
Blackbeard to conquer the World
I need to go out now so will just have to assume there is no penalty’s in the Morocco game with around about 10 mins left
9/2 Portugal v Spain – penalty to be scored £2.00
-£15.00
Blackbeard to conquer the World
9/2 Portugal v Spain – penalty to be scored £2.00
Won returned £11.00
£6.00 up on the penalty system.
debating whether or not to carry it on ……
-£4.00
Blackbeard to conquer the World
The odds in the France match has made my mind up not to play the penalty system as it’s 10/3 on either side scoring a penalty and I’d want 7/2 as a minimum. This VAR hasn’t been used in the way I thought it would. I didn’t watch the game last night but my friend said they didn’t use VAR to check out the penalty. Think they must be using it for the glaringly obvious rather than the trial they had in England where it was being used for everything, double checking each goals etc. Thought Russia could have had a review in the opening game but they didn’t look. The system for penalty’s was going to be one for taking advantage of VAR use so I’m happy to quit whilst I’m ahead…
Was looking at Christian Eriksen for man of the match in the Denmark game but 5/2 looks a very skinny price
Croatia and Nigeria doesn’t appeal to me.
I’m looking at the Argentina/Iceland match as I think Argentina don’t always click despite the quality of players they have whilst Iceland look a team full of spirit. Was hoping for 1/1 on +2 on the handicap for Iceland but it’s 4/5.
I’d imagine Hannes Þór Halldórsson will be between the sticks for Iceland and betway are the standout on him for man of the match at 33’s. Could be a day of backs to the wall and trying to frustrate little Messi, worth a quid.33/1 Hannes Þór Halldórsson man of the match £1.00
-£5.00
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Betbright have gone evens on Argentina -1 goal on the handicap so a late play. Think that looks okay especially if Argentina click. Iceland don’t look to have too many goals in them and it should all be played down the one end
1/1 Argentina -1 goal £3.00
-£8.00
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Got to give the chap man of the match for saving a Messi penalty……
Blackbeard to conquer the World
I’d imagine Hannes Þór Halldórsson will be between the sticks for Iceland and betway are the standout on him for man of the match at 33’s. Could be a day of backs to the wall and trying to frustrate little Messi, worth a quid.
33/1 Hannes Þór Halldórsson man of the match £1.00
Kabooosh….!!
Returned £34.00
+£26.00
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Ferty-free-ta-wun Robert!
Nice winner Nathan, well thought out – you deserve a
and a few 
I know little about football, but have had my obligatory small bet on England @ 18/1. Not a patriotic bet, just perfect sense. Like many, they are a confidence team. Everything will depend on what sort of start they get. Previous years they’ve been far too careful. This time Southgate (in the lead up and vocally) much more positive. If looking at previous tournaments and discounting penalties we don’t have such a bad record. Having a young team is to our advantage, fewer players remember the poor performances of other years and we’ve won Under XX tournaments recently too.
There are a few players I have my doubts about. Sterling’s confidence has been good with Man City this season and therefore netted a lot of goals; in contrast to his England form. Not that he plays badly, everywhere else on the pitch he’s great, just freezes in front of goal. However, the team are coming in to this in good form with a strong defence and got two winnable games to start. If Sterling can get a goal in the first game then his confidence may return. If not, Rashford would be a fine replacement. He’s the opposite to Sterling; no confidence in playing for Man U but bags of it in an England shirt. Little concerning Ali hasn’t been at his best second half of the season, but again there’s a lot of competition for his position – strength in depth.
If we get off to a good start our odds will half. Fairly big IF, but imo England at this stage have a better than 5.25% chance. They have at least as good a chance as Belgium imo (all individuals, not yet a team) and Argentina (two man team). Not as far behind France as markets indicate either (struggled in qualifying and weak up front).
One team I have been impressed with is Spain and have backed them @ 6/1. Ronaldo wrongly got the plaudits, but one was a wrongly given pen’. Spanish defender had his foot planted before Ron’ kicked his leg. Second goal extremely lucky as goalie had a nightmare and let it through. Only proper goal Spain let in a fabulous free-kick. So defencively Spain did better than the score shows and scored three good goals themselves. Bossed most of the game against Portugal. Should beat the other two in the group with ease.
Value Is EverythingWelcome to the circus Ginge….
We are use to the big price winners here and are more surprised when one doesn’t pop up now and again.
Iceland were around 6/1 for a clean sheet so if the chance of that happening was realistic then the price on the keeper getting the man of the match was worth a shot at.
Good write up Ginge. You’ve written some good positives there and I hope England can put in a good show, also the latter stages they will be underdogs so will have less pressure on them and nobody has high exceptions so it’s a free effort for them so to speak and they can relax but on the downside they do lack the quality and strength in depth that others have.
I’m wanting Spain out ASAP as karma for that vile Sergio Ramos, christ he’s a bigger barstard than what barstard is. Mighty good player though…
One bet for now. Germany look solid again and have the measure of Mexico. They should dominate the match and defensively should be too good for Mexico
11/8 Germany to win to nil £3.00
+£23.00
Blackbeard to conquer the World
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