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Ouch – that’s carnage Gordio. Good on you for putting your neck on the line though. Hope it hasn’t bruised that ego too much. You’ll bounce back next year I’m sure!!! I’ll try and show you how it’s done again this flat season
Is been a battle but TAPK never surrenders Joni,Holywell,and Champers on Ice didn’t feature and thats not what I’m used too.Ballyandy was a bit unlucky but would never have won.Alpha Des Obeaux was hugely dissapointing too.Apples Jade at 9/2 gave me my first winner and my huge prices on my star horse of the season Petit Mouchoir never let me down.Messire des Obeaux was a certainty to place and was always overpriced at 16/1 imo. Taquin du seuill placed for me at 20/1 as did Gold Present at 16/1. Dakota Moirette let me down in the Fred winter and I had a win bet only on Whisper that was unlucky.Cause for Causes was my 2nd biggest winner at 12/1 which helped massively and my confidence was back again.I backed Yorkhill at 7/1 but that didn’t cover my losses on both Top Notch and Disko but what a race it was.I did Impulsive star in the Pertemps and that dissapointed and Uxizandre in the Ryanair who also never featured.West approach and Shaneshill let me down in the stayers but I nailed Nicholls canyon at 13’s in running which was a surprise winner for me.Bouvereuil placed at 16/1 but Another hero was another who failed to sparkle.Today Defi du seuill made me a nice £2k at 16/1 and ran exactly like I thought he would.L’ami Serge at 25/1 ran another place but Wholestone was a win only bet.I was holding my own all week until the Gold cup,that was carnage,I backed More of that and Minella rocco win only on top of my bets on Black hercules,Cue Card and Bristol des Mai,that race alone cost me a grand.I thought Battleford was a handicap good thing but again ran like a pig and in the last I lost on Eastlake and The Game Changer..All in all its been a tough week and I’m about a grand down but that was really down to one race.I have had 1 winner every day and thats 3 short of what I’ve had every year for the past 10 years but I’ve already started again for next year…Yorkhill 12/1 Gold cup.Nicholls canyon 12/1 for stayers and Top notch 12/1 for Ryanair.
Dissecting the Battle;-
The first thing to say about Cheltenham this week from an Ante-Post perspective is Willie Mullins only has one horse for next years Gold cup so 12/1 about Yorkhill now is going to look generous in a years time.thankfully its Graham Wylies so he’ll be keen to go that route and avenge ‘On His Owns’ defeat.Nicholls Canyon is only a 7yo and he too will be geared for one race and thats the Stayers,he could be the new ‘Inglis Drever’ 12/1 again is fair.Defi du seuill clocked a time comparable with 2 proper Champion hurdle sorts from the County hurdle and being only a 4yo with endless scope the 10/1 for the Champion hurdle has been taken.I also think the best rouns of jumping this week came from Top notch who is a proper 21/2m chaser so the 16/1 for the Ryanair with Bet 365 has also been taken and a £1 lucky 15 makes a cool £20k…The march to March goes on.
First day thoughts,Both Ballyandy and Melon will continue on the upgrade..Holywell was a stone better off with ‘Un Temps pour tout’ and yet ran just like he’s done all year,,he’s lost the plot.Champers on Ice cant jump for toffee,he has to go back hurdling now.So I know what went wrong there.Altior is a Champion chase horse and thats where he’ll be going next year.Apples Jade has to go for the Mares race again on that brave victory,she franked the Petit Mouchoir form but Buvair d’air confirmed he’s the better horse and has to stay hurdling after that,he will be a tough nut to crack next year.Tiger Roll also confirmed why previous cheltenham form is the punters number 1 tool.
Day 2;-
The first 3 home in the Neptune look like future chasers,Willoughby Court RSA,Neon wolf Arkle and Messire des Obeaux JLT.I think we saw 3 very smart horses there,my fellow loves a bit of cut though.Might Bite looks like a King George winner already but his temperament is concerning.Whisper isn’t getting any younger but proved yet again that he is incredibly consistent and Bellshill looks like he needs further.Every race of the meeting was run slower than standard so there was never any real good ground but the time Special Tiara clocked in the champion chase suggests had the real Douvan turned up it could have been the fastest time of the week.Cause of causes does what he does best and is one horse you can really depend on at Cheltenham,I doubt he’ll do anything now till next year.The Bumper always throws up talent,none more than the winner Fayonagh who really caught the eye.
Day3;-
The race of the day for me was the JLT where little Top Notch proved why he’s named just that.The machine called Yorkhill proved a challenge too far for Hendersons little star.Disko will also win plenty more races too possibly over 3m.Un des Sceaux was hugely impressive over a trip I thought my test him,he will be defending his crown in that next year no doubt.Nichols Canyon has at last found his place,he is the 3m hurdling champ and is still the only horse to have beaten ‘Faugheen’.At least we know where Mullins will be sending this boy next year.Unfortunately the same cant be said for Lets Dance as Willie will play Musical chairs with this one big time.
Gold cup day;-
What a start when your 16/1 Ante-Post winner romps in on the bridle,I even had 18’s on the machine about this little beauty Defi du seuil,he had Triumph hurdle winner written all over him from the moment he set foot on Cheltenhams hallowed turf back in November,Phillip Hobbs has said all along he’s a future Champion hurdle horse and I cant dissagree.Hindsight is a wonderful thing as Arctic Fire really did have the form to win a county hurdle even under top weight,L’ami serge has Paddy Power Gold cup written all over him for November.Penhill was a frustrating horse on the flat but is such a big beauty that he could even be a Chaser oneday.Wholestone also could jump fences and the Munirs will have to keep ‘Messire’ and him apart.The Gold cup itself was run at a cracking pace and that was the time of the week for Clock watchers so I cant knock Sizing John,however the horse to take from the race is Minella Rocco his last 2 furlongs was the fastest I’ve seen over 31/4m.Bristol des Mai ran a blinder on ground too quick had it been a bog he may well have won.What we can gauge from the race is that Djakadam is a good yard stick so Native River has now peaked.I still hope Jonjo runs my 1000/1 More of that in the National as he kept on at one pace.
As always its been a cracker,certainly not my best from a financial point of view but I have had plenty of placed horses and 4 winners,I could include ‘Yorkhill’ and ‘Lets Dance’ but I like to be self critical…One bet that came close was a lucky 15 on Buvair d’air 5/1,Might Bite 5/1,Top Notch 8/1 and Defi du seuill 7/2…£3k..Anyway whats going to win the ‘Lincoln’…Yuften 12/1 or Blair House 16/1?I’ve gone through every re-run of this years festival this morning and just like last year the performance of the week goes to Yorkhill.There is no logical reason for this horse to go back hurdling now so why Mullins even suggests it tells you the kind of Punters pal he’s not..Ruby has only ever gone over the top about one horse and that was when he won the JLT on Vautour,he said ‘”He could win over any trip” and basically told the stable lad to shut up when he said he’d win the 2016 Gold cup…Incredibly he never ran in a Gold cup.Willie has plenty ‘Champion hurdlers’ so this monstrous chestnut wont be going there.The only other race suitable for ‘Yorkhill’ is the Ryanair but Willie has to finally realise that ‘Djakadam’s chance of Grade 1 glory at the festival is in that very race.The only horse in his yard now who is a serious Gold cup horse is ‘Yorkhill’ so I am taking every bit of the 10/1 thats going.So long as I stand to win a grand to a hundred I’ll be happy.
If there’s one young horse to steal ‘Un des sceauxs’ Ryanair crown its also from this years JLT.Top Notch has done nothing but improve and he wasn’t stopping going up that hill.Talked of earlier as an Arkle horse so there will be no talk or need to go further than the 2m5f of the Ryanair.This fellow gets the award for the best round of jumping this week and for one so small his jumping is spectacularly effective.At 16/1 he is worth backing e/w for next years Ryanair and I’ll be happy with £100 e/w at the price for £2k.Both Top notch and Yorkhill handle any ground so the big worry about ground conditions does not apply with both.Cheltenham wont be allowed to dry out which would hinder both but heavy ground is not a bother.
I’ve followed Graham wylies horses since the days of Arcalis and backed Inglis Drever all three times he won the stayers,I thought Shaneshill would be his sole runner this year so to see the 7 times grade 1 winner Nichols canyon running with Ruby riding was a tip in itself.Incredibly this fellow is the same age as Yorkhill but thats where the similarity ends,’Nichols’ is a far speedier agile sort ideal for hurdling and we saw that the 3m was perfect.One thing we do know and that wont please Mullins is the fact this fellow only has 1 target next year,a repeat performance in the Stayers. 8/1 with Bet365 doesn’t look over generous now but he could be Odds-on come the day.Again I’ll work to a Grand profit.
My 4th horse in my Ante-Post lucky 15 for next year is the mighty Defi du Seuill,he arguably has the toughest job of the lot here stepping up from Juvenile form to fighting with the Big boys.’Buvair d’air’ won very well and is certainly a worthy champion,he will take a bit of knocking off his perch.What we saw this season though from Phillip hobbs 4yo was a scratchy actioned novice back in November who blundered his way round Chepstow in December and again at Cheltenham after.What turned up on Friday was a different horse,he was the consummate Professional and I dont mean that in a Sexual way,he beat some very useful Grade 1 horses easily with flair and his hurdling was spectacular,easily the best performance of hurdling this week.Any amount of improvement from this half brother to ‘Taquin du Seuill’ will see him deserve his place in next years Championship 2 miler.Again only 8/1 is available now but he too has only 1 target and I’m prepared to take that risk.Obviously depending on how he’s campaigned as a 5yo could see him double in price but when a horse has a virtual unbeaten record connections will try to keep it that way.I’ll play to a Grand profit again here.
Next years ‘Arkle’ market is surprisingly generous had Melon won the ‘Supreme’ he would be 5/1 fav for the 2m novice event and yet Bet365 are offering 16/1.He is an imposing sort who looks like a chaser already,his flat breeding suggests through previous 11/2m form that the Arkle is a better route than the JLT.I think he is the scopiest horse in the race,trouble is the 12/1 fav is my Petit Mouchoir a horse with plenty toe but a low flight path jumper of a hurdle.It will be interesting to see how this fellow jumps a fence before commiting but they are my 2 against the field already.
Hobbs did suggest that the Arkle may enter calculations, TAPK. That’s something to consider when backing Défi Du Seuil.
What did you make of American yesterday Gord, do you think he might go for a big one at Cheltenham next year?
He certainly looked the part, great jumping display.Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Hobbs did suggest that the Arkle may enter calculations, TAPK. That’s something to consider when backing Défi Du Seuil.
Yes he did pal but the way this fellow won the ‘Triumph’ a tilt at the Champion hurdle has to be first port of call imo.A ‘Supreme’ 5-6yo makes an Arkle type for me not a 4yo but like you say these ‘Smoke signals’ dont help.I think we saw as good a ‘Champion hurdler’ as we’ve seen in a long time in Buveur D’air although the 10yo ‘MTOY’ does level it out a touch,the winner has inprovement in him and he’s improved past my Petit Mouchoir who we can safely say wont win a Champion hurdle now.Anyone taking the 3/1 about Hendersons Champion hurdler now though want their heads testing as good a horse as he is and we know there is only one target for him.Bet365 go 5/1 and he could be included in any long term Ante-Post lucky 15/31 at that price for me.
What did you make of American yesterday Gord, do you think he might go for a big one at Cheltenham next year?
He certainly looked the part, great jumping display.I do Jac,I expected him to run in the RSA this year to be honest,2/1 was pretty generous in what always looked like a 2 horse race on paper for me.The runner-up gives his performance credibility as he’s a useful sort ‘Rock the Casbah’ and to give him 6lb says the pennies beginning to drop.I felt his form with ‘Label des Obeaux’ prior to that had plateaued but since November I reckon he’s improved a good 15lb and is progressing nicely.I can see him running in the grade 1 3m event at Aintree and that will only be his 4th run over fences so definitely a horse for the future.He imo is already on my ‘Hennessey’ short list as a 2nd season Chaser come November.Incidentally his half brother Medinas won at Newbury on Hennessey day in 2014,albeit the Grade 2 Long distance hurdle but he had a touch of class too.
Holywell is temperamental these days, Gord. Needs to race prominently, with an unhindered view of his fences; otherwise just sulks. In non-Cheltenham Festival runs the rider hasn’t started well (for whatever reason) and thereafter the jockey hasn’t been at pains to get in to the best position for the horse… Running poorly and dropped in handicap. However, it now seems as though has learnt not to get away from the tapes quickly, incapable of getting a positive start. This Ultima even a rousting didn’t do the job and once in the pack had no chance – horse gave up. Not sure connections deserved any different.
If mine, I’d try entering in a race Holywell can set out to dominate – in a small field with as few prominently ridden rivals as possible – not a big handicap. Line up away from rivals and initially go wide, so as to get a clear view of the first fence and if slowly away able to go around horses to lead. May be then he’ll regain the old enthusiasm.
If backing him again Gord, I’d wait until after the first fence – even if lesser odds they’re better value by reducing the chance of Holywell downing tools.
Value Is EverythingWhat did you make of American yesterday Gord, do you think he might go for a big one at Cheltenham next year?
He certainly looked the part, great jumping display.I do Jac,I expected him to run in the RSA this year to be honest,2/1 was pretty generous in what always looked like a 2 horse race on paper for me.The runner-up gives his performance credibility as he’s a useful sort ‘Rock the Casbah’ and to give him 6lb says the pennies beginning to drop.I felt his form with ‘Label des Obeaux’ prior to that had plateaued but since November I reckon he’s improved a good 15lb and is progressing nicely.I can see him running in the grade 1 3m event at Aintree and that will only be his 4th run over fences so definitely a horse for the future.He imo is already on my ‘Hennessey’ short list as a 2nd season Chaser come November.Incidentally his half brother Medinas won at Newbury on Hennessey day in 2014,albeit the Grade 2 Long distance hurdle but he had a touch of class too.
Great answer Gord, thank you.
I have note-booked him with an eye on the ground.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Gord any views on my cheltenham 2018 bets they in other thread in this forum put up 3horses
Any views on FINIAN’S OSCAR i think he be very good over fences next year to mate Arkle or JLT think he go.
Nice Gord love reading your write ups, unlucky with this years festival but nice to see you didn’t have a complete nightmare! Onwards and upwards less than a year to go :D
Think you may be right about Neon Wolf going for the Arkle, he’s most likely a Champion Chase horse so 2m is the route they’d probably want to go down as the pace will stretch stamina anyway and he has that motoring powerful running action you often see in flat horses – reminds me of Night of Thunder actually!
Holywell is temperamental these days, Gord. Needs to race prominently, with an unhindered view of his fences; otherwise just sulks. In non-Cheltenham Festival runs the rider hasn’t started well (for whatever reason) and thereafter the jockey hasn’t been at pains to get in to the best position for the horse… Running poorly and dropped in handicap. However, it now seems as though has learnt not to get away from the tapes quickly, incapable of getting a positive start. This Ultima even a rousting didn’t do the job and once in the pack had no chance – horse gave up. Not sure connections deserved any different.
If mine, I’d try entering in a race Holywell can set out to dominate – in a small field with as few prominently ridden rivals as possible – not a big handicap. Line up away from rivals and initially go wide, so as to get a clear view of the first fence and if slowly away able to go around horses to lead. May be then he’ll regain the old enthusiasm.
If backing him again Gord, I’d wait until after the first fence – even if lesser odds they’re better value by reducing the chance of Holywell downing tools.
Totally agree with your assessment of Holywell there Ginge,if there’s one result that rattles me from this years festival its Un temps pour tout winning.Strictly on form ‘Holywell’ should have won that race by 5 lengths.I would have settled for a neck but like you say that bloody Rogue of a horse lost interest yet again.Whats blatantly obvious is its everytime he makes a mistake he chucks the dummy out and he hates to be cajoled these days…The ‘Holywell’ of old would respond to Richies urgings.
Question is this…Do you stay loyal to a horse because he’s being laid out for a race like I did with Get me Out of Here even though between festivals he ran like a pig but had no qurirks or do you realise that like Johns spirit they seem like well handicapped horses but are actually just deteriorating..I certainly have that problem with Black Hercules,he has shown nothing this year and nothing has been found to be bothering him.He has time yet to show his true colours but my patience will run out if he costs me any more.Age is not an issue with him.
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