The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

TAPK's Army

Viewing 15 posts - 106 through 120 (of 130 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #1293492
    The Ante-Post KingThe Ante-Post King
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8712

    I’ve gone through every re-run of this years festival this morning and just like last year the performance of the week goes to Yorkhill.There is no logical reason for this horse to go back hurdling now so why Mullins even suggests it tells you the kind of Punters pal he’s not..Ruby has only ever gone over the top about one horse and that was when he won the JLT on Vautour,he said ‘”He could win over any trip” and basically told the stable lad to shut up when he said he’d win the 2016 Gold cup…Incredibly he never ran in a Gold cup.Willie has plenty ‘Champion hurdlers’ so this monstrous chestnut wont be going there.The only other race suitable for ‘Yorkhill’ is the Ryanair but Willie has to finally realise that ‘Djakadam’s chance of Grade 1 glory at the festival is in that very race.The only horse in his yard now who is a serious Gold cup horse is ‘Yorkhill’ so I am taking every bit of the 10/1 thats going.So long as I stand to win a grand to a hundred I’ll be happy.

    #1293494
    The Ante-Post KingThe Ante-Post King
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8712

    If there’s one young horse to steal ‘Un des sceauxs’ Ryanair crown its also from this years JLT.Top Notch has done nothing but improve and he wasn’t stopping going up that hill.Talked of earlier as an Arkle horse so there will be no talk or need to go further than the 2m5f of the Ryanair.This fellow gets the award for the best round of jumping this week and for one so small his jumping is spectacularly effective.At 16/1 he is worth backing e/w for next years Ryanair and I’ll be happy with £100 e/w at the price for £2k.Both Top notch and Yorkhill handle any ground so the big worry about ground conditions does not apply with both.Cheltenham wont be allowed to dry out which would hinder both but heavy ground is not a bother.

    #1293495
    The Ante-Post KingThe Ante-Post King
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8712

    I’ve followed Graham wylies horses since the days of Arcalis and backed Inglis Drever all three times he won the stayers,I thought Shaneshill would be his sole runner this year so to see the 7 times grade 1 winner Nichols canyon running with Ruby riding was a tip in itself.Incredibly this fellow is the same age as Yorkhill but thats where the similarity ends,’Nichols’ is a far speedier agile sort ideal for hurdling and we saw that the 3m was perfect.One thing we do know and that wont please Mullins is the fact this fellow only has 1 target next year,a repeat performance in the Stayers. 8/1 with Bet365 doesn’t look over generous now but he could be Odds-on come the day.Again I’ll work to a Grand profit.

    #1293496
    The Ante-Post KingThe Ante-Post King
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8712

    My 4th horse in my Ante-Post lucky 15 for next year is the mighty Defi du Seuill,he arguably has the toughest job of the lot here stepping up from Juvenile form to fighting with the Big boys.’Buvair d’air’ won very well and is certainly a worthy champion,he will take a bit of knocking off his perch.What we saw this season though from Phillip hobbs 4yo was a scratchy actioned novice back in November who blundered his way round Chepstow in December and again at Cheltenham after.What turned up on Friday was a different horse,he was the consummate Professional and I dont mean that in a Sexual way,he beat some very useful Grade 1 horses easily with flair and his hurdling was spectacular,easily the best performance of hurdling this week.Any amount of improvement from this half brother to ‘Taquin du Seuill’ will see him deserve his place in next years Championship 2 miler.Again only 8/1 is available now but he too has only 1 target and I’m prepared to take that risk.Obviously depending on how he’s campaigned as a 5yo could see him double in price but when a horse has a virtual unbeaten record connections will try to keep it that way.I’ll play to a Grand profit again here.

    #1293508
    The Ante-Post KingThe Ante-Post King
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8712

    Next years ‘Arkle’ market is surprisingly generous had Melon won the ‘Supreme’ he would be 5/1 fav for the 2m novice event and yet Bet365 are offering 16/1.He is an imposing sort who looks like a chaser already,his flat breeding suggests through previous 11/2m form that the Arkle is a better route than the JLT.I think he is the scopiest horse in the race,trouble is the 12/1 fav is my Petit Mouchoir a horse with plenty toe but a low flight path jumper of a hurdle.It will be interesting to see how this fellow jumps a fence before commiting but they are my 2 against the field already.

    #1293511
    GladiateurGladiateur
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1253

    Hobbs did suggest that the Arkle may enter calculations, TAPK. That’s something to consider when backing Défi Du Seuil.

    #1293512
    TriptychTriptych
    Participant
    • Total Posts 9952

    What did you make of American yesterday Gord, do you think he might go for a big one at Cheltenham next year?
    He certainly looked the part, great jumping display.

    Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
    #1293515
    The Ante-Post KingThe Ante-Post King
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8712

    Hobbs did suggest that the Arkle may enter calculations, TAPK. That’s something to consider when backing Défi Du Seuil.

    Yes he did pal but the way this fellow won the ‘Triumph’ a tilt at the Champion hurdle has to be first port of call imo.A ‘Supreme’ 5-6yo makes an Arkle type for me not a 4yo but like you say these ‘Smoke signals’ dont help.I think we saw as good a ‘Champion hurdler’ as we’ve seen in a long time in Buveur D’air although the 10yo ‘MTOY’ does level it out a touch,the winner has inprovement in him and he’s improved past my Petit Mouchoir who we can safely say wont win a Champion hurdle now.Anyone taking the 3/1 about Hendersons Champion hurdler now though want their heads testing as good a horse as he is and we know there is only one target for him.Bet365 go 5/1 and he could be included in any long term Ante-Post lucky 15/31 at that price for me.

    #1293516
    The Ante-Post KingThe Ante-Post King
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8712

    What did you make of American yesterday Gord, do you think he might go for a big one at Cheltenham next year?
    He certainly looked the part, great jumping display.

    I do Jac,I expected him to run in the RSA this year to be honest,2/1 was pretty generous in what always looked like a 2 horse race on paper for me.The runner-up gives his performance credibility as he’s a useful sort ‘Rock the Casbah’ and to give him 6lb says the pennies beginning to drop.I felt his form with ‘Label des Obeaux’ prior to that had plateaued but since November I reckon he’s improved a good 15lb and is progressing nicely.I can see him running in the grade 1 3m event at Aintree and that will only be his 4th run over fences so definitely a horse for the future.He imo is already on my ‘Hennessey’ short list as a 2nd season Chaser come November.Incidentally his half brother Medinas won at Newbury on Hennessey day in 2014,albeit the Grade 2 Long distance hurdle but he had a touch of class too.

    #1293541
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26588

    Holywell is temperamental these days, Gord. Needs to race prominently, with an unhindered view of his fences; otherwise just sulks. In non-Cheltenham Festival runs the rider hasn’t started well (for whatever reason) and thereafter the jockey hasn’t been at pains to get in to the best position for the horse… Running poorly and dropped in handicap. However, it now seems as though has learnt not to get away from the tapes quickly, incapable of getting a positive start. This Ultima even a rousting didn’t do the job and once in the pack had no chance – horse gave up. Not sure connections deserved any different.

    If mine, I’d try entering in a race Holywell can set out to dominate – in a small field with as few prominently ridden rivals as possible – not a big handicap. Line up away from rivals and initially go wide, so as to get a clear view of the first fence and if slowly away able to go around horses to lead. May be then he’ll regain the old enthusiasm.

    If backing him again Gord, I’d wait until after the first fence – even if lesser odds they’re better value by reducing the chance of Holywell downing tools.

    value is everything
    #1293543
    TriptychTriptych
    Participant
    • Total Posts 9952

    What did you make of American yesterday Gord, do you think he might go for a big one at Cheltenham next year?
    He certainly looked the part, great jumping display.

    I do Jac,I expected him to run in the RSA this year to be honest,2/1 was pretty generous in what always looked like a 2 horse race on paper for me.The runner-up gives his performance credibility as he’s a useful sort ‘Rock the Casbah’ and to give him 6lb says the pennies beginning to drop.I felt his form with ‘Label des Obeaux’ prior to that had plateaued but since November I reckon he’s improved a good 15lb and is progressing nicely.I can see him running in the grade 1 3m event at Aintree and that will only be his 4th run over fences so definitely a horse for the future.He imo is already on my ‘Hennessey’ short list as a 2nd season Chaser come November.Incidentally his half brother Medinas won at Newbury on Hennessey day in 2014,albeit the Grade 2 Long distance hurdle but he had a touch of class too.

    Great answer Gord, thank you.
    I have note-booked him with an eye on the ground. :rose:

    Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
    #1293547
    darren83
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5861

    Gord any views on my cheltenham 2018 bets they in other thread in this forum put up 3horses

    #1293548
    darren83
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5861

    Any views on FINIAN’S OSCAR i think he be very good over fences next year to mate Arkle or JLT think he go.

    #1293557
    Ben_BernankeBen_Bernanke
    Participant
    • Total Posts 665

    Nice Gord love reading your write ups, unlucky with this years festival but nice to see you didn’t have a complete nightmare! Onwards and upwards less than a year to go :D

    Think you may be right about Neon Wolf going for the Arkle, he’s most likely a Champion Chase horse so 2m is the route they’d probably want to go down as the pace will stretch stamina anyway and he has that motoring powerful running action you often see in flat horses – reminds me of Night of Thunder actually!

    #1293562
    The Ante-Post KingThe Ante-Post King
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8712

    Holywell is temperamental these days, Gord. Needs to race prominently, with an unhindered view of his fences; otherwise just sulks. In non-Cheltenham Festival runs the rider hasn’t started well (for whatever reason) and thereafter the jockey hasn’t been at pains to get in to the best position for the horse… Running poorly and dropped in handicap. However, it now seems as though has learnt not to get away from the tapes quickly, incapable of getting a positive start. This Ultima even a rousting didn’t do the job and once in the pack had no chance – horse gave up. Not sure connections deserved any different.

    If mine, I’d try entering in a race Holywell can set out to dominate – in a small field with as few prominently ridden rivals as possible – not a big handicap. Line up away from rivals and initially go wide, so as to get a clear view of the first fence and if slowly away able to go around horses to lead. May be then he’ll regain the old enthusiasm.

    If backing him again Gord, I’d wait until after the first fence – even if lesser odds they’re better value by reducing the chance of Holywell downing tools.

    Totally agree with your assessment of Holywell there Ginge,if there’s one result that rattles me from this years festival its Un temps pour tout winning.Strictly on form ‘Holywell’ should have won that race by 5 lengths.I would have settled for a neck but like you say that bloody Rogue of a horse lost interest yet again.Whats blatantly obvious is its everytime he makes a mistake he chucks the dummy out and he hates to be cajoled these days…The ‘Holywell’ of old would respond to Richies urgings.
    Question is this…Do you stay loyal to a horse because he’s being laid out for a race like I did with Get me Out of Here even though between festivals he ran like a pig but had no qurirks or do you realise that like Johns spirit they seem like well handicapped horses but are actually just deteriorating..I certainly have that problem with Black Hercules,he has shown nothing this year and nothing has been found to be bothering him.He has time yet to show his true colours but my patience will run out if he costs me any more.Age is not an issue with him.

Viewing 15 posts - 106 through 120 (of 130 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.