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Cheers DJ,
that don’t really tell me why TF handicappers think Twist Magic etc have run well below form and a mark of 165 for winner suggests they think this.
You think 177-179 then?
Unsurprisingly, no, davidbrady.
I think the race is so full of holes as to not be worth bothering ones ar*se rating, let alone allocating a mark of 173 to an animal that has never had any pretension whatsoever to being in that kind of class.
I’d respect the RPR handicapper more if he simply said “The race is a bogey, and extremely difficult to weigh-up. This rating could end-up being miles out”.
Of course, if he feels that the Chandler form is sound, the form will stand the test of time, and that the rating of 173 is rock-solid, then that is his perogative. I just think that, under such circumstances, he would be better off making shoes for a living.
Tamarinbleu’s win at Cheltenham off 150 was 5lbs higher than his highest hurdle rating so some improvement there.
If we go back to his poor run in the Arkle he made a mistake at the 1st and was never able to dominate. He is a small horse and probably needs to dictate matters in front as he is intimidated by bigger animals.
His return to hurdles at Haydock last May showed him to be running to exactly his best hurdle mark.
Before Ascot, you would not have banked on him handling the testing ground any better than Twist Magic as all bar one of his previous wins has come on going described as good to soft or better.
He strikes me as an improving type who needs to have an uncontested lead, which he is not guaranteed to get in a furiously run Arkle.
I wouldn’t take it as read that Twist Magic will reverse form in a rematch. Personally I think Voy Por Ustedes was still feeling the effects of his Cheltenham seasonal debut when he was defeated by Twist Magic at Sandown.
For me given adequate recovery time before teh Queen Mother, Voy Por Ustedes represents tremendous value at the current odds, given his hugely impressive festival record. However, I do not think it is out of the question Tamarinbleu could continue to improve and pose a threat.
FOr Nicholls to simply blame the ground on Saturday is a bit unsporting. At least King said "we were beaten by a better horse" when Voy Por lost at Sandown, even though I am sure he knew deep down he had run him too soon after a very attritional race at Cheltenham.
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I think the race is so full of holes as to not be worth bothering ones ar*se rating, let alone allocating a mark of 173 to an animal that has never had any pretension whatsoever to being in that kind of class.
Grassy
I wouldn’t be too sure it is pretension!
The horse has had 3 runs over fences since the addition of blinkers.
In the first (3m Perth) he was ridden with the pace and beat a reasonable field quite cosily, for which the Official Handicapper raised him 10lb.(140 > 150).
In his next race (21f Chelt) he forced the pace against a much better field, and again won comfortably and was raised 9lb (150 > 159) by the OH.
On Saturday he again forced the pace to beat a much better field more easily, and it would be difficult to see how the OH could award him much less than he has for his two previous improved runs. The nature of his victory suggests more, though it could be argued that it was exaggerated by the ground, but I can’t see how he can raise him less than 9lb (to 168) on the strength of his latest run?
Looking at the form, Twist Magic ran below his previous best, (7lb, according to RPR), but came into the race in the form of his life and had no problem at all travelling or jumping on the ground, until his stamina gave out around 3f from home. Even allowing for his lack of stamina, it would be difficult to say he ran any more than 10lb below his previous best, which would still put Tamarinbleu on an RPR of 170.
The 3rd horse, Mansony, also came into this race in the form of his life and off an OR of 158, yet was outclassed and outpaced from a long way out, likewise the other, not immodest contenders.
There are always more ways than one to view a race of this nature, but given the time of the race, the class and the form of the opposition, and the rate of improvement of the winner, it is difficult to see how he cannot be rated a very serious challenger for the Arkle, let alone any semblance of pretence.Each to their own, reet, but I am a sceptic when it comes to the suggestion that Tamarinbleu has improved to the tune of 20-30lbs due to the application of blinkers. Much more likely, imo, that the Chandler was a trappy race, run on false ground, and producing a result which is nigh-on impossible to assess with any confidence.
Of course, I started from a position where I didn’t rate Twist Magic (or VPU for that matter) as particularly inspiring 2m chasers. To me, all of their OR’s and RPR’s look a bit top-heavy. Almost like they are being judged on the value/grade of the races they have won, rather than the merit of the form they have displayed.
Perhaps I’m a crank though.
It may have no relevance at all to this thread, but how much did Exotic Dancer improve last season, according to his rating? When beaten out of sight at Carlisle behind Monet’s Garden, did anyone think he would improve to win two top class handicaps, a Pillar and be twice second to the golden horse of the generation?
I’m not saying Tamarinbleu has done likewise, but it’s not out of the realms of imagination that he may have improved enough to rate a serious threat in this year’s Queen Mum against what is, as has been pointed out, a weakish looking contest.
That said, any 4/1 about VPU is, in my opinion, an each way shot to nothing. Won the Arkle (considered to be the hottest Arkle EVER beforehand) and the QM at the last two festivals. Been there. Done it. Could very well do it again.
aphardy, I think the difference is that Exotic Dancer ran in two of the most competitive handicaps of the year, and the likelihood was that the form from each race was probably pretty solid – can we really say the same thing about this years Chandler?
I’m not saying Tamarinbleu is a hopeless cause for the Champion Chase. Indeed, he has to be in the equation, given the relative paucity of really top-class horses (imo at least) likely to run in the race. But he is not a 170 animal – not by a long chalk.
I was thinking more his run in the Boylesports at Cheltenham as a guide to his relative improvement, and the Chandler as merely supporting this improvement. I would agree his rating is too high based on his Ascot run, but the way he won with a fair bit in hand in the h’cap before (off 150) suggests that his improvement is not merely down to questionable ground.
Certainly if you’d said that TB would be 5/1 for the QM at the start of the season, you’d have been labelled crazy. However, it’s also likely that he would be able to dictate matters come 12th March, unless Fair Along and/or Jack The Giant took their places in the line-up, which means he’d probably get a pretty good shot at winning it.
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Prior to the Victor Chandler, Tamarinbleu won the same race that Exotic Dancer had the year previously. Carrying 4lb more, he beat a very similar field in a very similar manner, achieved a very similar t/s figure, and an almost identical RPR?
What I fail to see – which many are hanging their condemnation of the race on – is that T’s VC win was some sort of bolt from the blue. His previous 2 races showed that his jumping had improved for the fitting of blinds, and also showed the progression to suggest he might be capable of even better.
As he went into the VC off an OR of 159, is it really that surprising that he found another 9lb or so for the astute way he was ridden in Saturday’s circumstances?Reet, Tamarinbleu did not beat his Boylesports field in a similar manner to the way ED beat his.
Tamarinbleu won from the front in his race, and basically ran them into the deck, not looking capable of winning any further than he did. Exotic Dancer came from off the pace, and was only put into the race in the last 2f, and couldn’t have won any easier.
I am not suggesting that Tamarinbleu’s Chandler win was a ‘bolt from the blue’. I have already said that I don’t think Twist Magic is a superstar, and that Tamarinbleu himself was on an upward curve.
What I’m saying is that the horse appears to have been raised again based on an assumption that the form of the Chandler is rock-solid, and verging on top-class. I can’t have it on either account, and I’d rather treat the race with caution at this stage, than to suppose that Tamarinbleu has found another massive lump of improvement.
That’s a different thing to dismissing his chance in the Champion Chase, which won’t take a great deal of winning imo, and he has to enter calculations given I think there are holes in both the front two in the market.
Based on the distance Twist Magic finished in front of stable companion Hoo La Baloo, one can argue he ran up to form.
I think the poster is right to say Twist Magic is probably overrated, and this is not the first time he has disappointed. He was talked up at Ditcheat as a horse to follow last season, and they have always thought highly of him.
Considering Twist Magic put Mansony firmly in his place, on ground Mansony would have probably preferred, I think the race has a farily solid look to it.
Tamarinbleu reminds me a little of Northern Starlight a similarly diminutive animal whom the Pipe yard improved immeasurably from a low of 80 over timber to a career high of 141, and who was at his best when given an uncontested lead.
Is that the only word you know dj? Care to tell me what excuse you have that would explain Tamerinbleu being tailed off behind those horses that he gave a right royal stuffing to at Cheltenham and Ascot previously? Remember? Those tasty little big money handicaps?
I take it that you didn’t lay Tamerinbleu? I personally layed the ass off the horse, as I knew it would still be running after nightfall. 7/2 was a lot lower than I expected him to be, well chuffed
Coming soon, Scribbles explains that…
Sheikh Mohammed bought Jalil to win a few graded races and laid the arse off him in the Dubai World Cup.
Alistair Darling had sold Northern Rock shares on the futures market.
And Rafa Benitez has Liverpool playing like Champions League ‘job’ team (actually, that one looks right)
Care to tell me what excuse you have that would explain Tamerinbleu being tailed off behind those horses that he gave a right royal stuffing to at Cheltenham and Ascot previously?
With ease – he was run off his hooves on a surface a bit too lively for him at the minimum trip nowadays.
Remember? Those tasty little big money handicaps?
…which still pale in value next to a tasty little big money Grade 1 (worth more to the winner than the Boylesports and Victor Chandler put together), the last I checked.
Talk of "job horse" is wide of the mark on those facts alone.
gc
Adoptive father of two. The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.
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