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“If your not on already much better off waiting till the day.”
Certainly. Especially as the Supreme is the opening race of the whole meeting and the bookies will be pushing the boat out, knowing they have 27 more races to go. It would be madness to have an ante post bet in this race right now.
“Dysart dynamo @ 16/1, ive settled on at this point is still the best value IMO i may put a few more £, he will likely bolt up on sunday.”
He will surely only run if gerhard runs poorly in the grade 1 at the DRF
Otherwise he looks set to run in the ballymore
If his position in the race was only based on him winning on Sunday id agree but he could bolt up and still not run if gerhard wins next time
Purely from a back and lay perspective if he bolts up he will be single figures and ill get a free bet, but aside from that, i see DD as a 2 miler, i dont buy into this notion that he will split them for the sake of it, he will run them in the race they have the best chance in… upping a horse by 5f just to keep them apart if there both top class 2 milers just wont happen. After watching everything back if one of them were to go to the ballymore, at this stage itd be SG for me, but we will know more come sunday..
He looks weak(ish) in the ballymore, or does he? I actually think el fabiolo/ramillies/grangeclare west/dark raven (assuming ramillies is injured or was) will come out and give it a different perspective soon, he has plenty others there, i see no need for splitting currently (none will beat ginto anyway)
But who knows, the point still stands that you and i made, the betting here should be more mirrored to the ballymore than what it is here, stage star put up a similar performance to CH did on figures, but the variance in price in the different race is muddling, youv the others like ginto also, all at 8s+ which is how the betting for this should look, not 9/4 etc
Hence why i think DD is a good starting point currently
El fab the only one making chelt out of the 4 you mention there Ham. Well I haven’t heard anything on Ramilles but it’s getting late. The other two are def out
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Ham your argument about the Irish superiority over the British horses is a bit flawed. As i said before Shishkin didnt beat a great deal going into the Supreme, listed class British novice hurdles at best, the irish horses came into the Supreme with better numbers on paper i.e. coming from the champion bumper the year before and winning Irish Grade 1s. It doesn’t mean its a given that the Irish horses then automatically win against a Henderson horse with potential top class status. History tells us that. Ignore them at your peril ;o)
As for Jonbon not winning,i don’t see why not. The talking horse for the Supreme for Henderson coming into the season just like Altior and Shishkin, a slick jumper with a top class pedigree, and (so far) doing little wrong approaching the Supreme.
Mike, Shishkin was like 33s at the start of the season, was he really a hyped as much as Jonbon? He went off 10-1 for the Supreme remember.
I think Ham’s argument is like what i’ve said- Jonbon might win, but at this stage, you would be backing terrible priced horses with poor UK form. Sir G goes and wins at the DRF i’d say it’s set in stone he will have the best form. Obviously, he has to win first, and secondly that might still not make him good enough to beat the 2 Nicky horses- but it’s a price thing.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!The arguement isnt flawed over irish superiority mike, there horses, are, surperior and have been for a good few years now and theres absolutely no sign the tide has turned back in that sense, there is no flaw in that. I wasnt suggesting the british have no chance in the race, its exactly what jack said, this should be 5/1+ the field the same as the ballymore, were 2 months away… i also dont believe that what diverts from here means they have the ballymore wrapped up lol
It did mean it against chantry house though? Didnt it? For one example
Shame about the other 3 jack, i just cannot see DD being diverted win or lose sunday, i still feel sir g would be the one to swap, but its just guesswork, happy to play the prices in DD, still has to show hes upto it for this or the other regardless
And mike, jonbon wont win
How can Jonbon not win? The only thing I’ve heard anyone say to that question is that he’s won 2 crawls. That’s not an answer to why he can’t win.
How can a horse who’s pissed up twice, not win the supreme. The crawls didn’t suit him. He wants a lead and he’s too keen early on. A strong pace will only help him. He’s going to be better off a strong pace not worse lol.
Just imagine the crazy idea that a strong pace might bring about improvement in him. Then imagine saying he can’t win a supreme.
Crawls falsify the form imo , got away with pulling badly because the races where a farce, too buzzy, will lose the race before it begins, nothing suggests hed be better with a strong prace, could just exasperate the pulling, metier looked as good last season, if jonbon was trained by fry hed be double digits, priced on the trainer at this point
Nvm why he cant win, What entitles him to be 3/1 jas? Stage star looked as good in a “weaker” division and is 3x the price? What suggests he can win? Beating average british horses? Surely we have learned our lesson there? 23x over last year…
If he was 10/1 id just leave him to it and not mention it, but 3/1? Come, on … has to be a lay at that price
And i dont like the imagine what will happen, i just look at what has happened and is likely to happen, ill leave the dreaming to you lol
The race Jonbon won last time was the strongest novice hurdle of the season so far in Britain and Ireland and he won it as he liked.
It was a false start to the race but go and watch the replay, he had every single horse off the bridle before they had turned into the home straight. When the races are ran slowly they are all usually travelling within themselves for much longer so he must have put some pretty special sectionals in down that back straight to have them all going at it along way out. That to me showed me how special he is.You say nothing suggests he would be better with a stronger pace. There’s actually nothing to suggest he would be worse mate haha. I really don’t think going a stronger pace will make him pull harder, usually a stronger pace helps them settle bud.
He’s 3/1 because as mentioned already he’s won the best novice race so far this season by laughing at his rivals. You could argue he should be favourite on that basis. And to suggest 10/1 is pretty ridiculous really in January. What should it be 10/1 the field in your opinion? Even though it could easily be a single digits number of runners again like last year. And we’ve probably seen 95% of the runners already this season who will run in the supreme so if he has the best form so far he should be way below 10/1.
And it’s not dreaming to think Jonbon wouldn’t be just as good if not better off a stronger pace. It’s a dream to think there isn’t horses out there that can win fast and slow run races. It’s called ‘class’ and Jonbon has plenty of class
Ham, Jonbon was on his toes before his last run. I didn’t see any signs of a boil over. He was more agitated on his seasonal debut. So he’s just getting better with experience. Any horse can get stewed up and/or buzzy at Cheltenham tbf, but yards take the necessary steps to minimise the risk as Henderson has stated.
As for slowly run races i will trust you have seem enough racing to know that potential superstars have run in slowly run novice/juvenile races in Ireland over the years many times over. Clearly they have had engines and coped with faster pace races subsequently no bother. To say Jonbon will be worse off a proper pace, you’re clutching at straws a bit with this one I’m afraid.
And you say “What suggests he can win? Beating average british horses?” The answer is Yes because Henderson has done it before i.e beating the horses put in front of them. You’ve not taken this on board it would seem. And suggesting Jonbon should be 10-1 is crazy, punters would lap up that price in seconds.
He has the potential to be the best in the division atm.Added Dysart Dynamo 13-1 as a backup. That was good today. Looks more suited to this than the Ballymore to my eyes due to his free going nature.
I have Dysart Dynamo for the Ballymore, but I’m afraid he might go here. That was really impressive. Worst case for me would be that they switch Sir Gerhard en Dysart Dynamo.
Not a chance that goes another 5f to the ballymore lol thats a 2 miler if ive ever seen one
The way he jumps give the Ballymore a chance still Ham, IMO.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Maybe jack, but Why would they even consider it after what hes just done over 2m, what did he have left there? Given how hot irish maidens typically are, that was a collective of really good maiden winners, whos form was backed up, If somethings getting rerouted, its SG,
Somethings clearly getting rerouted out of the top 4, its 1/100 they dont all come here obviously
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