Supreme Novices hurdle 2022

[He Didnt Like Ground]

In my eyes what impressed most yesterday was the last hurdle ….he jumped it like he was popping over them at home , he was devastating

[Gingertipster]

“Ginge, i dont need to back it up, until he does it in open grade 1 company, its a farce, as proven, Year on year, the ground was faster yesterday than typical”,

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Come on; you know more about form than that, ham.

Yes, the ground was faster than typical yesterday, but form can be judged on time. I don’t mean just because he beat the track record; no… Track records often mean nothing because if getting one course record it’s often followed by another, or at least come close… Or it is obvious from slower sectionals of other races on the day that when allowing for slower sectionals of other races they would’ve been track records too had they been truly run throughout… ie Track records are usually only telling you the going was firm / quick and / or a strong tail wind boosted race times. But none of that happened yesterday. Constitution Hill’s time and sectionals were out on their own even allowing for other races slower sectionals and even though there were plenty of other top class racehorses running yesterday..

It’s the comparison that’s important; both of overall race times and with allowance made for pace in races (sectionals). ie Timeform have both overall race times and sectional times of many many thousands of races going back many decades. If a race has a slower section then they know from past races what can be expected as a result of that slower sectional and allow for it in the rating given. Does not matter what the race is called or graded as. If Constitution Hill ran a solo trial of the same overall time and sectional times, carrying the same weight over the same course and distance… the rating would be the same too. Timeform know the overall race time and sectionals of Constitution Hill were truly exceptional by comparing them not only with other horses that raced yesterday but also horses of the past.

Timeform themselves say:
“”Constitution Hill was significantly faster in the closing stages than Honeysuckle, which is remarkable when one considers his race was run at a much stronger gallop – indeed, the Supreme field arrived at the third-last around five seconds quicker than they did in the Champion. To be honest, I’ve never seen anything like it – he really could be anything.”

Value Is Everything

[Mike007]

I would advise to not get too carried away with time comparisons. Races aren’t run exactly the same and who knows when the 2 horses will meet and what form they will be in.

To give you an example, Andy Holding, Oddchecker tipster and sectionals guy, did a time comparison between the 3 mile handicap win of Sire De Berlais and the Stayers Hurdle grade 1. He watched the 2 races side by side like those sectional guys tend to do. Sire Du Berlais’s sectionals ‘caned the Stayer’s Hurdle’ he observed. So Andy Holding did ante-post bets on Sire Du Berlais for the following year’s Stayers Hurdle raving about the time figures along the way. I, on the other hand, wasn’t convinced, as going from handicap company to a grade 1 was a big step up and I didn’t fancy him to win it. And I was proved right despite the 2 race comparisons on the clock.

[Gingertipster]

Were you “proved right” Mike?

So Andy Holding tipped a horse fully a year in advance.
What odds was Sire Du Berlais at that time? Doubt whether he was anywhere near odds-on (ie he was always much more likely to lose than win despite the good timefigures). Suspect you could easily back him each way when Holding tipped him.

Despite the horse changing from Elliot’s control to Foster, SDB finished ahead of the previous year’s Grade 1 Stayers Hurdle winner Paisley Park and only found one too good…

And yet you’re claiming credit because he didn’t win. LOL

…And there’s a big difference between SDB’s sectionals and Constitution Hill’s anyway..

Value Is Everything

[Author]

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