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Ruby said at tonight’s paddy power preview night that it was not a certainty that he’d ride Melon. Huge negative for Melon backers, if he was that special there wouldn’t be a decision to be made would there
Yep, that’s a bit of a kick to lads with Melon at big odds; what exactly did he say about Melon or The Mullins Supreme horses in general? Is there a link to the preview?
I’m sure some of you think I’m mad, but is Cilaos Emery somewhat the forgotten horse in this now? I’m sure at some point this was shorter in the betting than Melon (around 6/1 I think) a while back. Melon was the talking horse and so was this chap after winning a listed race from a decent yardstick. Got beat on the line the race after, the pair a good way clear of third, and can be argued, the experience would have done him the world of good. With such little experience to go on with the favourite, clearly the first two in the betfair were ridiculously well treated, is it madness to think there could be an upset, and what better place to look than an unexposed Mullins horse which was clearly highly rated earlier in the season.
I’ve taken the 20’s as think it’s at least good for a place..I’m sure some of you think I’m mad, but is Cilaos Emery somewhat the forgotten horse in this now? I’m sure at some point this was shorter in the betting than Melon (around 6/1 I think) a while back. Melon was the talking horse and so was this chap after winning a listed race from a decent yardstick. Got beat on the line the race after, the pair a good way clear of third, and can be argued, the experience would have done him the world of good. With such little experience to go on with the favourite, clearly the first two in the betfair were ridiculously well treated, is it madness to think there could be an upset, and what better place to look than an unexposed Mullins horse which was clearly highly rated earlier in the season.
I’ve taken the 20’s as think it’s at least good for a place..That’s a fair shout. I do think however, with Melon, Bunk Off Early & Crack Mome being definitely aimed at the Supreme that Cilaos Emery will line up alongside Bacardys in the Neptune.
I also ‘hope’ that he lines up in the Neptune having nibbled at the 25/1’s offered after that latest defeat.
Dont think so; still has Bacardys, Saturnas and maybe Lets Dance for the Neptune (although she’s probably more likely to go Mares Novice). Think Cilaos Emery, Crack Mome, Bunk Off Early and Melon are going to The Supreme.
I think all four that Vautour has said will all go Supreme…according to Mullins…whatever that means…
I can’t believe River Wylde hasn’t even been mentioned for this. His form runs quite deep and not without quality, Elgin and Capitaine tying in with both Finian’s Oscar and Neon Wolf. He jumps very very smoothly and seems an uncomplicated ride. His form seems a lot more solid than that of Movewiththetimes for example, even taking into account the Betfair Hurdle, yet at 12/1 he is twice the price.
Was talking to Jim Ballfrey last night at a preview he is one of the 2 guys over Supreme Racing with Mullins. He seemed fairly genuine and didn’t want to talk too much about horses but more people from Kerry where I’m from, he said he’s on Bunk Off at 25s and he will win Supreme. He then said, that they turned down €750k for the horse yesterday morning.
Was talking to Jim Ballfrey last night at a preview he is one of the 2 guys over Supreme Racing with Mullins. He seemed fairly genuine and didn’t want to talk too much about horses but more people from Kerry where I’m from, he said he’s on Bunk Off at 25s and he will win Supreme. He then said, that they turned down €750k for the horse yesterday morning.
I’m on Melon and Bunk Off Early is the horse I fear most. Just reminds me of Rooster Booster.
As said in CH thread moon racer is more likely for the CH now than the supreme according to sources!
Hopefully they bring neon wolf here, ill back him wherever but would love to see him in the supreme
Was talking to Jim Ballfrey last night at a preview he is one of the 2 guys over Supreme Racing with Mullins. He seemed fairly genuine and didn’t want to talk too much about horses but more people from Kerry where I’m from, he said he’s on Bunk Off at 25s and he will win Supreme. He then said, that they turned down €750k for the horse yesterday morning.
I’m on Melon and Bunk Off Early is the horse I fear most. Just reminds me of Rooster Booster.
LOL, what a racist
#allgreyhorseslookthesame
Looks odds on Beyond Conceit will miss this. Strange because the ground seems likely to be slower on the first day and he would have the pace to give him a better chance to settle. From the outside it looks as if they have split them up so De Boinville just gets two rides.
I couldn’t resist putting my thoughts out there for Cheltenham. I’ve had my tantrum, the toys are back in the pram and I’ll try to stick to the Big Races/Cheltenham areas going forward.
So, the Supreme! I’ve had a bit of a stinker already as I took 33/1 on the non-runner Capitaine soon after his Ascot win. I’m sure there is a classy horse in there somewhere, but he looks increasingly one-dimensional and temperamental. It’ll be one of Paul Nicholls’ greatest feats if he can revive that one.
I possibly compounded my error by having a chunk on Moon Racer at 6/1 just before NRMB, with Betfair moves/trainer/owner comments now suggesting that the Champion Hurdle will be his race. Although history shows that Champion Bumper winners often struggle in the Supreme, Moon Racer is far from the archetype. He has serious gears, with his come-from-behind Champion Bumper win enormously impressive with classy (though admittedly less streetwise) yolks like Modus and Yanworth left standing. Though he couldn’t beat Blow By Blow at Punchestown last season, his sweeping Arazi-esque move from last to second off the home turn was quite incredible as he scorched past horses that were quickening off a slow pace. His early-season win at HQ this term was also quietly impressive as he dodged the banana skin of a slowly-run tactical affair.
My only other bet in the race is Movewiththetimes 11/1 e/w, taken just after his target was confirmed. Though the BHA gave them standardised rises, I estimate that Ballyandy ran 154+ in the Betfair Hurdle and Movewiththetimes 154P. Running from 135 and 136 respectively, both were value for much more than the 6 lengths they had to spare from the officially well-in Clyne and a pair of others who had obvious handicapping scope. The margin might have been more like 15 lengths but for Twiston-Davies and Geraghty sitting still and daring each other to move first as they ran towards the last. I think Movewiththetimes has more potential than Ballyandy because he shaped like the best horse at Newbury. Carrying 1lb more, Movewiththetimes would have won but for greenness and Geraghty’s failure to switch his whip to his left hand as his mount hung into the winner. A high 150s performance could easily be enough in what looks like a poor year in this division.
Nobody sane could be backing Melon at his current price. He looks like the Mullins #1 by default, with the first wave of hype built upon a throwaway comment at a seasonal preview. How often does Willie Mullins, master troll, treat the public to a golden nugget? In fairness, Melon won a weak maiden hurdle as he liked, but any of the top dozen in the betting could have matched that performance. For me, Melon’s French videos don’t inspire confidence either. He took a long time to quicken in soft ground at 1m 4f, hardly looking like the agile ferretish type you’d want on Cheltenham’s sharpest configuration. The Mullins #2 Bunk Off Early was eyecatching in the Deloitte, but he was a notorious bridle horse on the flat and is hardly one for maximum faith with a similar profile emerging over timber.
It now seems clear that mudlark Neon Wolf won’t get the conditions needed for a Supreme bid. River Wylde is quietly sidling into the discussion, but I don’t rate Elgin as a particularly strong marker horse and he was workmanlike enough in beating Alan King’s horse (getting 3lbs) at Kempton. Nothing really grabbed me from the Mullins dregs or the bigger prices, so it could just be Movewiththetimes for me if Moon Racer comes out.
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