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https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/32/aintree/2024-11-09/877828
Had an early bet on Percussion here. Almost certainly goes, and off the back of a big run at Uttoxeter, I’d expect him to be bang there.
Was hoping for bigger than 12’s, and I see him more as a solid EW Bet, but I don’t think he’ll last at that price either (I’ll top up if I see bigger too). It’s a smaller bet definitely, a bet for the sake of starting the threads, but he’s the initial fancy.
The one at a very nice price is Sans Bruit. 25’s is huge, could see him loving this, and if he’s not entered up at Cheltenham next week, I’ll definitely add him. Looking forward to seeing what he does this season
Gaboriot, Outlaw Peter, Grandads Cottage, and particularly Celebre D’Allen of interest too
Percussion 12’s
Sans BruitPlenty of old favourites here. I’d love to see Eldorado Allen over the big fences again. His National run probably flattered to decieve as they went an absolute crawl, but he still took to the place well. Would prefer a little bigger than 14/1 and I’m willing to wait to see if this is truly the target.
Plenty of bigger prices that catch the eye too. Celebre D’Allen, Minella Drama and Killer Kane all look tempting and I can see them all lining up.
My main hope at this point will be Twinjets. I’ve a feeling Paul Nicholls has the National in the back of his mind for him and this will give all involved a good idea if that is a feasible plan going forward.
Let’s hope for a lineup more fitting of the ticket price this year compared to last year.
I’ll have a go with Sure Touch ew 5 places.
Won it’s last 4, the sire bred a National winner and the dam won a Topham.
None of the five from my first post go, so I’ll fall back on old favourites Frero Banbou and Percussion. To that end, this is not a race that I have a particularly strong record in.
Aside from the Covid year I have enjoyed the Grand Sefton in person every year since 2016. Circumstances aren’t what they were and I just can’t justify the £25 it would cost just to get through the gates. The customer service last year wasn’t particularly on point either, so I was in two minds about making 2 pilgrimages to Aintree this year anyway.
I’m not convinced moving the Sefton to the November meeting has had the desired affect. The race has never been much of a needle mover and rarely attracted big fields, but the hope was more horses would take their chances in the Sefton with a view to completing a double in the Becher. Only Mac Tottie has attempted this since the move. Granted it is a small sample size.
Looking at the field sizes either side of the move…
2024 – 13
2023 – 10
2022 – 14
2021 – 14
Race moved to November meeting
2020 – 18
2019 – 14
2018 – 11
2017 – 11That’s an average of 12.75 runners since the move compared to 13.5 in the four years before the move (14 if you go a couple years further back), so hardly a huge drop off. I’m not sure how you fix it. With the fences the way they are; I’m not sure connections see any value in giving their horses “a sighter” in races like the Sefton with a view to coming back in December or April. The Becher Chase hasn’t been a true National prep for a few years now, and it seems that the Sefton isn’t being viewed as a Becher prep either.
14/1 is a tempting each way price for Harpers Brook. First run for Dan Skelton and he’s missing his usual headgear but he’s had a wind op and I think he’ll love the fences, track and ground. I’ve been very selective with my bets so far this season, and it’s been working, but I’m prepared to take a risk on a quirky but loveable horse here.
I agree with Mike. Sure touch comes from an in form yard, jumps park fences well, improving, Sean Bowen rides, goes on the ground and dam won the Topham.
My other big bet is last year’s 4 3/4 lengths third Frero Banbou. Now off a 3 lbs better mark and the sounder surface this time around should place less emphasis on stamina. Appeared not to get home after looking the probable winner coming to the last. That said, hasn’t won in his last 16 starts – often finds a reason to get beat. I’ll be putting an in running saver LAY at a shortish price.
A lesser win would be Outlaw Peter. Nicholls horses have been needing the run this term, but OP has gone well fresh, goes on the ground, has a progressive profile, usually jumps well, test of speed at the trip should suit and an excellent claimer on board.
Had a couple of savers on King Turgeon and Gaboriot.
Value Is EverythingI’m a fan of Harper’s Brook. He has a good record on good ground and hoping that the Skeltons found some improvement. Also had to add Percussion as a real specialist and this doesn’t look the strongest race.
Harper’s Brook 14/1
Percussion 10/1Hadn’t planned to add to the Antepost, but as it looks like I’ll beat it anyway, I’ll top up Percussion, even with him drifting
Percussion 12’s/EW5Pls
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