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Fairplay Steve, interesting to see your ratings on the race.
I think Qewy’s win has been underrated somewhat. Cardinal Walter is a very good horse already rated 140 as a hurdler after showing 91-rated ability on the flat. Qewy got 6lbs from him at Newbury, but slammed him to look the better horse by at least 5lbs. Bouvreuil, one of the top horses in the Fred Winter betting, was further back in that Newbury race. I think Qewy‘s 145-150 ability is hard to question, but his awkwardness will cost him at Cheltenham.
Likewise L’Ami Serge and Jollyallan. The way Jollyallan was so readily outpaced in the Irish Champion bumper by mainly staying types on better ground is a hard memory to erase. Maybe something was amiss, but it seems far from coincidental that was the first time he faced good horses on good ground. The way he bungles so many jumps makes me sense that he could be wheelspinning again in the Supreme unless the ground comes up soft.
L’Ami Serge has similar queries to answer. He has a habit of messing up the final flight, which in a vacuum isn’t a bad trait for a Supreme horse after Darlan, Get Me Out Of Here and other horses with below-average technique placed in the race. Still, the specifics of L’Ami Serge’s problem make me question his overall balance when in top gear. I don’t horses with those kinds of question marks on undulating tracks and fear he could be another caught flat-footed on better ground when asked to quicken.
L’Ami Serge’s raw ability was backed up by the run of Jolly’s Cracked It to place in the Betfair Hurdle from such an unpromising early position. I’m just taking him on from a visual interpretation and don’t doubt his ability in the right conditions.
Douvan’s form just gets better all the time. He has laughed at several 130-135 horses – and that’s using Irish official ratings which are usually boosted a few lbs by the British handicapper. Previous victim Rock On The Moor helped his cause by beating some smart mares midweek too. He is also so adaptable, happy to sit handy, lead or be held up. Qewy, L’Ami Serge and Jollyallan are all awkward animals I’d describe as "difficult rides". Being so easy to steer, tactically versatile and easily sttled, Douvan will be a big help to Ruby Walsh, who is such a master of the Supreme.
Another plus for Douvan is his breeding. As a son of Walk In The Park, I fancy that he’ll improve for better ground where others may flounder on it. Walk In The Park’s clear career-best was his run to be second behind Motivator on good ground in the Epsom Derby.
As well as Seedling, I’d give an each-way squeak to Max Dynamite if he can prove his wellbeing. He’s a fragile horse and clearly wasn’t right when beaten last time, but previously put up a performance that tallied well with some of the key players.
All the ratings I quoted are the official ratings from the BHA website and the Horse Racing Ireland Turf Club website.
I take on your concerns regarding L’Ami Serge but I get the impression the horse is very much still learning and is only starting to find his feet since coming to the UK. He is reported to have made good progress since his latest start. Maybe he is just an awkward sort but I’m hoping he can become more fluent in time. I’d rather have an engine and try to tune it, than have a slick jumper with a moped behind the saddle.
Jollyallan isn’t a bet option for me, I just feel he’s got more on the board in form than Qewy and is a better each-way at the odds than Qewy, who owes some of his place in the betting to Pricewise. Jollyallan is getting a bit skinny himself in places now and it will be slightly disappointing for me if he lifts this, as I’d like to see one of the less exposed ones step up and prove a cut above the rest.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’ve had to back Tell us More for this today with all the rumours about him despite hoping Gigginstown send Outlander and Him to the Neptune. Happily it’s NRNB with skybet
It is a very weak looking race this year. I would like to have seen Nichols Canyon from the front in this one.
I can’t justify betting Douvan at all. I think he has done nothing better than what Serge and Jolly have done. He would have to be at least 4-1 for a bet.
Agree about Nichols Canyon. However, it’s Ruby’s influence as he’s not getting off Douvan
What i liked about L’Ami Serge’s performance last time was the finish – he really pinged the last when stretching away from Jollyalan
I have him and Douvan in multiples but will back something each way on the day – both of them without a recent prep run
Doing a Munir multiple tomorrow
Both Jolly and AV look to be goinghere. This has the hallmarks of another McCoy wrong selection. AV to bounce back???
There’s no way in hell McCoy will make the wrong decision for any of the races this year being his last
It is not a dig at him it is just the way it has fallen previously. To say there is no way is probably a bit naive.
Took some of the 10/1 about Jollyallan NRNB over the weekend but to his backers, let me just say, I have never backed the winner of the Supreme.
Apols for the bok.
I normally have a strong view on the supreme but not so much this year i’m struggling.Lami serge travels well but watching a few re-runs off his races,Does he really jump well enough?,does he have a change off pace it looks like the horse plods rather then quickens.
Jollyallan i liked but i just feel does he really have them battling qualities to win a supreme?.
I just feel this years supreme isn’t a top class race.That brings me to douvan.Watching him win the moscow flyer novice hurdle he seemed to have a serious engine and put to bed the race very easily.Jumping quick and fast.Might it just be the case that he could win this easily as i believe its a supreme with not much depth?.
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I just feel this years supreme isn’t a top class race.That brings me to douvan.Watching him win the moscow flyer novice hurdle he seemed to have a serious engine and put to bed the race very easily.Jumping quick and fast.Might it just be the case that he could win this easily as i believe its a supreme with not much depth?.
I agree completely, the closer we get to the festival the more confident I’m getting about Douvan, think I may put a large sum on him, that way after the first race it’ll either be a gret Cheltenham or a bad one
I normally have a strong view on the supreme but not so much this year i’m struggling.Lami serge travels well but watching a few re-runs off his races,Does he really jump well enough?,does he have a change off pace it looks like the horse plods rather then quickens.
Jollyallan i liked but i just feel does he really have them battling qualities to win a supreme?.
I just feel this years supreme isn’t a top class race.That brings me to douvan.Watching him win the moscow flyer novice hurdle he seemed to have a serious engine and put to bed the race very easily.Jumping quick and fast.Might it just be the case that he could win this easily as i believe its a supreme with not much depth?.
You could well be right.
Douvan could scarcely have been more impressive in his latest win, he could be a seriously good horse but it’s all about the price and we have to consider what he beat.
The worry I have is whether he beat horses who are a fair but below him and, perhaps more crucially actually need further.
The runner up Alpha Des Obeaux was stepping down from three miles to two. Third horse Marinero went off favourite next time but was beaten a good bit further in 4th than he had been by Douvan and his effort was described as "One Paced"
The 4th horse Rock On The Moor was described as "One Pace" in his run behind Douvan. Connections stepped him up to 2m 2f next time, where he fell. He won on his next start, where the 7/4 Fav ran disappointingly, but that was a race over 2m 4f, again re-enforcing the lack of pace theory.
It is a Supreme that seems to lack real quality. Many of the original candidates either met with injury, disappointed or simply head to other races.
Douvan could romp home but it’s all about promise, rather than actual form for the moment. He’s not one I would put in as banker material for the Festival but all the same he is an exciting prospect. L’ami Serge for me at the odds as he has made good progress and hopefully can hurdle better with experience. I’ll be a bit surprised if any of the others can land this.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Qewy fans will get an idea of their horses form when Cardinal Walter runs shortly. I am taking him on with Jonjo’s Fort Worth at the odds. The horse won when Jonjo was more out of sorts than he is now and just feel the Henderson horse could be another hotpot that disappoints. We’ll know soon either way.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Scrap that he’s out of it.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
This I my very first post on this site so I thought I would start with one of my fav races – Supreme Nov Hurdle.
I think Douvan is far to short for this race so I will be looking elsewhere for some value. Lami Serge has looked good but has only been winning small runner races on soft ground. Both Jollyallan and Shaneshill are both iffy jumpers in my opinion so it looks like instead I am looking for a big price winner for this race.
Looking at trends for this race, I want to find something which has won its last race this year and has won on good to soft ground as this is probably what the going will be on the 1st day. From the other runners:-
Qewy, Alvisio Ville, Nichols Canyon, Tell us More, Outlander, Bentelimar – Only won on soft or worse
Seedling, Sizing John, Parlour Games, – Last ran before Jan
Silver Concorde – Never won its last raceSo next in the betting is Some Plan which is 50-1 in some places but this horse meets all my above requirements. Looking at his previous races he needs to improve his jumping but at the price this might be a good each way option.
That’s my sort of price so I’ll look at him! Going into Cheltenham pretty blind this year so I’m doing some last minute cramming..it might just pay off. Y’neverknow.
Douvan travels so well during races and has won with the minimum amount of effort that it is difficult to gauge
how he will re-act when or if he has to come off the bridle. The horse hasn’t beaten much but on visual evidence alone ,
he certainly looks the real deal. I like the look of Douvan a lot , so I just had to back him and I have done so under the NRNB rule.Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I’d be careful what you wish for msercs.
Somewhat unlucky race for McCoy and since he won on Hors La Loi III in 2000 these are his near misses.
2013 My Tent or Yours (2nd)
2012 Darlan (2nd)
2011 Sprinter Sacre (3rd)
2010 Get Me Out Of Here (2nd)
2008 Binocular (2nd)
2006 Straw Bear (2nd)
2002 Westender (2nd)That’s 5 runners up spots in the past 8 years <!– s:shock: –>
<!– s:shock: –> I think those stats need to be highlighted in bold. Get Me Out Of Here particularly painful. Johnson just rode him to sleep.
I was keeping my fingers crossed that he wouldn’t get anywhere near Alvisio Ville. Likely improver for step back in trip and change of jockey. Just a shame Geraghty isn’t available but Townend should do.
Did you read Willie Mullins comments regarding Alvisio Ville in a recent interview Stilvi?
<i>“The chances are he’s going to run in the Sky Bet Supreme. I thought he learnt more bad habits than good ones last time but I’ll say no more about that. Connections are leaning towards the Supreme with him and that’s fine with me.”</i>
Suggests he wasn’t that happy with the ride from AP.
Doesn’t the quote and running Alvisio in the Supreme suggest Mullins wasn’t pleased with his own placing of the horse THM? Suggests the trainer believes he’ll be better off returned to 2 miles from 2m2f last time. Don’t see how you can get negatives for the jockey.
AP rode Alvisio in exactly the same fashion as Townend on previous (impressive winning) start as far as I could see. 
None of those place efforts by AP were on odds-on chances and MTOY the only one starting shorter than 9/2. MTOY doesn’t find a great deal under pressure over 2 miles when stamina is at a premium. I backed GMOOH that day Stilvi and was disappointed about AP’s timing on the day. However, it’s been proven since that he’s a horse that needs exaggerated waiting tactics. Didn’t do anything wrong on any of the others as far as I remember. Out of AP’s control. Almost stole the race on Straw Bear before Noland cut him down late. Darlan was always played late so needs a bit of luck and didn’t get it. Had either Sprinter Sacre or Straw Bear won he’d be in profit over that time for a £ stake. You could argue AP’s is a good record in the Supreme.
Value Is Everything<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>thehorsesmouth wrote:</div>
I’d be careful what you wish for msercs.
Somewhat unlucky race for McCoy and since he won on Hors La Loi III in 2000 these are his near misses.
2013 My Tent or Yours (2nd)
2012 Darlan (2nd)
2011 Sprinter Sacre (3rd)
2010 Get Me Out Of Here (2nd)
2008 Binocular (2nd)
2006 Straw Bear (2nd)
2002 Westender (2nd)That’s 5 runners up spots in the past 8 years <!– s:shock: –>
<!– s:shock: –> I think those stats need to be highlighted in bold. Get Me Out Of Here particularly painful. Johnson just rode him to sleep.
I was keeping my fingers crossed that he wouldn’t get anywhere near Alvisio Ville. Likely improver for step back in trip and change of jockey. Just a shame Geraghty isn’t available but Townend should do.
Did you read Willie Mullins comments regarding Alvisio Ville in a recent interview Stilvi?
<i>“The chances are he’s going to run in the Sky Bet Supreme. I thought he learnt more bad habits than good ones last time but I’ll say no more about that. Connections are leaning towards the Supreme with him and that’s fine with me.”</i>
Suggests he wasn’t that happy with the ride from AP.
Doesn’t the quote and running Alvisio in the Supreme suggest Mullins wasn’t pleased with his own placing of the horse THM? Suggests the trainer believes he’ll be better off returned to 2 miles from 2m2f last time. Don’t see how you can get negatives for the jockey.
AP rode Alvisio in exactly the same fashion as Townend on previous (impressive winning) start as far as I could see. 
If Mullins was unhappy with his own placing of the horse, with particular reference to the trip, he would have just said it. Mullins is not one to avoid the issue when he thinks he’s at fault himself.
To say he learned more bad habits than good ‘but I’ll say no more about that’ suggests to me that he wasn’t happy with what happened in the race.
No way did AP ride him in exactly the same fashion GT, not in my opinion anyway. On debut, Townend jumped off fifth or sixth and seemed at pains to try anchor him behind a couple of horses and get him settled. Alvisio Ville pulled his way up to dispute third before long, but Townend managed to keep him behind the two leaders until the second last.
AP jumped him off in second with loads of daylight around him and it was no surprise to see him again very keen. Particularly after his first run, and stepping up in trip, I would have thought they’d want to once again try teach him to settle and positioning him on the outside of Nichols Canyon with nothing in front of him was surely one of the worst ways of doing this.
If he does learn to use his energy more efficiently, he could yet be a top horse, particularly over fences.
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