- This topic has 142 replies, 35 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 1 month ago by
.
-
Posts
-
I think Douvan is a woeful price at 5/2. Vautour could be backed at 4/ for the Supreme last year and that was after he won the Deloitte. Douvan hasn’t achieved anything like that as of yet and while he could be go on and romp home here, he can go and do so without my money.
You have to respect the confidence of the Mullins camp as they’re very rarely wrong when they think they have a chance of winning at the festival. So Young and Boston Bob may have been beaten at short prices but both ran very well on the day and on another day may well have won. Pont Alexandre is the only ‘hotpot’ I would have considered disappointing and apparently he got lose on the track that morning and did a couple of laps. However, at the prices I couldn’t touch Douvan.
L’Ami Serge has achieved more in form terms and is twice the price.
Vautour looked to struggle a tad in the Moscow Flyer though only winning under a length at 1/4 on it was that poor a performance that he was 2nd favourite for the Deloitte Novice Hurdle so the vibes weren’t as strong at the time until winning the Deloitte. Douvan is of course the price he is due to the Mullins factor but I wouldn’t want to take him on personally. Ruby thinks he can be versatile regards trip which you’d think that means he’ll get further which is a bonus around Cheltenham. I didn’t think his jumping was bad at all certainly not losing ground to my eye at every hurdle like Stilvi says. If anything I would say Ruby had the handbrake firmly on in a controlled manner as to not let the horse get too close to the leaders too soon. I also think the second Alpha Des Obeaux is no mug as he was only 2 and bit lengths behind Black Hercules albeit over 3 miles and the horse Douvan put to bed by 12 lengths Sizing John went on to win a grade 1 next time out so it’s a bit harsh to think Douvan hasn’t beat anything to date.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Douvan looks the winner as of today and I think he will probably win but the question is do you back him now or wait for the day, Will us Irish weigh in on the day and back him off the boards? might go off 1/1 if that happens or will the bookies try to get him on the morning of the race? One niggle I have is that Willie Mullins comment prior to the race the other day about him enjoying going right handed (I did not see the quote so please correct me if I got it wrong), now its probably nothing but still!!
I think Douvan is a woeful price at 5/2. Vautour could be backed at 4/ for the Supreme last year and that was after he won the Deloitte. Douvan hasn’t achieved anything like that as of yet and while he could be go on and romp home here, he can go and do so without my money.
You have to respect the confidence of the Mullins camp as they’re very rarely wrong when they think they have a chance of winning at the festival. So Young and Boston Bob may have been beaten at short prices but both ran very well on the day and on another day may well have won. Pont Alexandre is the only ‘hotpot’ I would have considered disappointing and apparently he got lose on the track that morning and did a couple of laps. However, at the prices I couldn’t touch Douvan.
L’Ami Serge has achieved more in form terms and is twice the price.
When Vautour won the Deloitte he was backed/cut down to far shorter than 4/1. You may recall there was one day at the end of Feb when he took a massive walk in the market due to some rumour all was not well. I know as I had him to win a decent sum at all odds from 12s down! I had a few nervous days that’s for sure !!
The Mullins camp are very very sweet on him, so really that is enough to tell us he’s out of the top drawer, but equally Alisio Ville is very highly regarded too so he must be kept onside.
The Mullins camp are very very sweet on him, so really that is enough to tell us he’s out of the top drawer, but equally Alisio Ville is very highly regarded too so he must be kept onside.
I like Alisio Ville a lot but it’s obviously hard to tell how he sits compared to Douvan. At 8/1 and four times the price of the latter horse, he’d be my pick if the race were tomorrow.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Just doing a bit off study on the supreme and i don’t like lami serge or douvan i’ll explain why.
Lami serge when beating jollys cracked it jumped poor and when he jumped the last he plodded on instead off quickening i just think he is way too short and will have to jump a lot better to win a supreme
As for douvan i think 5-2 is a crazy price the horse has won a poor race and they didn’t seem to go very fast not many runner’s etc…A supreme novice is a totally diffrent experaince lots off runners and go flat out to the first and at the price he is not for me
i haven’t really got a fancy for the race i fancy alvisio ville to run a big race i think macoy will ride.But only won a maiden hurdle.But was impressive.But not really confident.The supreme has brought up sum surprises in the past!.
Windsor Park’s form was handsomely boosted by Fletcher yesterday. Unfortunately, Robbie MacNamara says Silver Concorde will be Dr Lambe’s Supreme Horse with Windsor Park going to the Neptune.
Just doing a bit off study on the supreme and i don’t like lami serge or douvan i’ll explain why.
Lami serge when beating jollys cracked it jumped poor and when he jumped the last he plodded on instead off quickening i just think he is way too short and will have to jump a lot better to win a supreme
As for douvan i think 5-2 is a crazy price the horse has won a poor race and they didn’t seem to go very fast not many runner’s etc…A supreme novice is a totally diffrent experaince lots off runners and go flat out to the first and at the price he is not for me
i haven’t really got a fancy for the race i fancy alvisio ville to run a big race i think macoy will ride.But only won a maiden hurdle.But was impressive.But not really confident.The supreme has brought up sum surprises in the past!.
Look at the form of Douvan and Sizing John. Sizing John first run wins, Sizing John up against Douvan and SJ comes second, Sizing John runs again, No Douvan and wins, trainer thinks a lot of Sizing John. Ruby Walsh thinks Douvan best he’s ever ridden potentially. Think we are looking at another Faugheen here and Douvan nailed on for the Supreme.
Does that mean SJ would beat any horse he ever races against as long as it is not Douvan?
Cheers for the tip
Look at the form of Douvan and Sizing John. Sizing John first run wins, Sizing John up against Douvan and SJ comes second, Sizing John runs again, No Douvan and wins, trainer thinks a lot of Sizing John. Ruby Walsh thinks Douvan best he’s ever ridden potentially. Think we are looking at another Faugheen here and Douvan nailed on for the Supreme.
If only punting was that easy.
No doubt SJ is a pretty decent animal, however the G1 at Leop has to be one of the weakest we’ve seen this season after the two Mullins runners crashed out early on."Shack1":3gyr530i wrote: Look at the form of Douvan and Sizing John. Sizing John first run wins, Sizing John up against Douvan and SJ comes second, Sizing John runs again, No Douvan and wins, trainer thinks a lot of Sizing John. Ruby Walsh thinks Douvan best he’s ever ridden potentially. Think we are looking at another Faugheen here and Douvan nailed on for the Supreme.
If only punting was that easy.
No doubt SJ is a pretty decent animal, however the G1 at Leop has to be one of the weakest we’ve seen this season after the two Mullins runners crashed out early on.Nail on head. Looking forward to seeing Sizing John over a fence though
Douvan looks like a future gold cup horse or something, big effortless horse, but whether he’ll be sharp enough to win a 2m race on quicker ground I’m not so sure, I don’t think I’ll be backing him.
I was impressed when I first saw LS, but will have to watch the races again.
Open Eagle is due out this weekend but whatever happens he’s not going to Cheltenham this year. The stable have said they won’t put him there with just one run under his belt, so that’s it for him.
I’ve been checking out L’Ami Serge and have been impressed by him. I think there’s a lot more to come from him and he’s replaced the ill fated Allez Colombieres in my Ten To Follow.
Nicky Henderson put out a very upbeat message about L’Ami Serge recently and says the horse has thrived since his last race and put on a good bit more condition.
As far as I am concerned Douvan makes no appeal at the general 2/1 he is now. Rank Hovis McDougall value.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well Open Eagle was wasted money and needn’t bother staying over the sticks.
The alarm bells went off for me when I saw they were starting him off at 2 and a half miles. That’s hardly what a flat horse would need. He never really travelled today at all and while it looked like he might pick up at one stage, his run petered out quickly.
Absolute garbage and he should head back to the level ASAP.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
He wouldn’t be the first horse to suddenly decline in ability after leaving David O’Meara.
- Total Posts 764
Douvan wins this in the manner of Faugheen last year, jumped well in his last race while absolutely cantering. He travelled incredibly well and as soon as they left the final turn Ruby showed the boy his wip (didn’t touch him though) and the horse responded almost immediately to go alongside the leaders and pass them just before the last. He didn’t jump the last too well but that’s because Ruby had such a tight hold of him and didn’t want to unleash this beast. Just like Faugheen this horse will jump better the faster he goes so that won’t be a problem in the Supreme, he has an incredible cruising speed and seemingly 10 gears which he doesn’t even need to be asked to use.
Lami Serge looks a good horse but he’s your typical Henderson horse that’ll finish in the top 3 without having that extra bit of speed to get him to the front.
Douvan wins this in the manner of Faugheen last year, jumped well in his last race while absolutely cantering. He travelled incredibly well and as soon as they left the final turn Ruby showed the boy his wip (didn’t touch him though) and the horse responded almost immediately to go alongside the leaders and pass them just before the last. He didn’t jump the last too well but that’s because Ruby had such a tight hold of him and didn’t want to unleash this beast. Just like Faugheen this horse will jump better the faster he goes so that won’t be a problem in the Supreme, he has an incredible cruising speed and seemingly 10 gears which he doesn’t even need to be asked to use.
Lami Serge looks a good horse but he’s your typical Henderson horse that’ll finish in the top 3 without having that extra bit of speed to get him to the front.
There are a couple of major differences between Vautour / Faugheen at this stage last season and Douvan this time around.
Firstly, and most importantly, the price. He’s woeful short at 2/1 for a horse who beat a three miler last time out. If I remember correctly Faugheen was around 4 or 5/1 at this stage last season and the opposition for his Neptune looked weaker.
Secondly, Douvan has not yet been off the bridle. I remember you question what Faugheen might find when discussing the Neptune on here last year but he had already showed what he could do when Patrick Mullins unleashed the beast at Punchestown. Likewise, this time last year Vautour was about to thump The Tullow Tank in the Deloitte. Douvan goes to Cheltenham with two easy wins under his belt, is it not a doubt for you this year that he has not come off the bridle, particularly when he’s half the price Faugheen was?
Finally, I feel Douvan is being priced as if he is Vauutour / Faugheen. He may well be as good or better but the chances are he is not. He may not have to be as good as either to win but at 2/1 I couldn’t touch him. Fair enough if you’re on at bigger prices but I’m happy to look elsewhere.
The Deloitte on Sunday should be very informative. I heard great things about Alvisio Ville before his maiden hurdle and he’ll likely be hot favourite. It’s Identity Thief who most interests me more though.At 33/1 for the Supreme he looks the liveliest of the outsiders to me.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.