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Excellent win from Glingerburn in the Morebattle Hurdle today. He has a likeable attitude and travelled well. Hawk High didn’t look straightforward, but it’s always a big achievement to beat that horse on decent ground.
25/1 with WH for the Supreme.
Excellent win from Glingerburn in the Morebattle Hurdle today. He has a likeable attitude and travelled well. Hawk High didn’t look straightforward, but it’s always a big achievement to beat that horse on decent ground.
25/1 with WH for the Supreme.
A very taking performance from Glingerburn and he looks like he’d really relish the typical strong pace in the Supreme. Unfortunately, he doesn’t seem likely to participate at Cheltenham as he’s touted as more a long term prospect and Nicky Richards did seem a lot warmer on Ayr and Aintree.
Would certainly be in with a place shout if he turns up.
Excellent win from Glingerburn in the Morebattle Hurdle today. He has a likeable attitude and travelled well. Hawk High didn’t look straightforward, but it’s always a big achievement to beat that horse on decent ground.
25/1 with WH for the Supreme.
Runs at Kelso next month before Aintree.
Just backed Silver Concorde at 33s with Stans, oosh!
Be surprised if one of the two favourites does not win this.
Douvan @ 2/1 and Lami Serge @ 9/2 makes combined odds a shade of odds-on, 20/21. imo Their real chance is around 4/6.
I’ve bcked Lami Serge and saved on Douvan.
Value Is EverythingBe surprised if one of the two favourites does not win this.
Douvan @ 2/1 and Lami Serge @ 9/2 makes combined odds a shade of odds-on, 20/21. imo Their real chance is around 4/6.
I’ve bcked Lami Serge and saved on Douvan.
I’ve seen the headline already:-
Power Serge Comes Through To Do Van
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
My original thought some time ago Shaneshill still there at a going price in this race but also a going price in the Neptune. I’m waiting for NRNB.
Mullins does your head in with his plethora of talented novice beasts
Jollyallan has done very little wrong all season. Strong pace will suit and a bit of decent ground won’t go amiss.
Just need McCoy onside now.
Martin
I’d be careful what you wish for msercs.
Somewhat unlucky race for McCoy and since he won on Hors La Loi III in 2000 these are his near misses.
2013 My Tent or Yours (2nd)
2012 Darlan (2nd)
2011 Sprinter Sacre (3rd)
2010 Get Me Out Of Here (2nd)
2008 Binocular (2nd)
2006 Straw Bear (2nd)
2002 Westender (2nd)That’s 5 runners up spots in the past 8 years
A month ago with still much uncertainty as to what would be running – especially from Closutton – I thought Douvan was bad value.
Now I’m of the thinking that this is a very poor renewal and he could walk this.L’Ami Serge was still a maiden after 6 races in France and even though you could expect him to improve for the better ground, being by Kings Theatre, he’s still only beaten a total of 3 horses that have stood up in his level weights events over here.
The form of his Gerry Feilden win has admittedly worked out well but he was running off a mark of 132 and to put that into perspective; My Tent Or Yours ran away with the Tote Gold Trophy off 149 and was still beaten in the Supreme. Likeable as he is it is hard to see him ever being top class and judging by the rumours, that is what Douvan is.Jollyallan ran a decent race in hindsight behind the 154 rated Garde La Victoire and as a result possibly sets the standard as the chief threat but the form of his previous victories is nothing to get too excited about with his closest pursuer on boxing day since been beaten out of sight in the Deloitte.
Shaneshill appears to be going for this by default as connections have Nichols Canyon for the Neptune now, which was the former’s original target and where Mullins would still like to see him. Regardless, last years festival bumper has not worked out well at all.
Qewy is not without a chance but IMO he is testament to the lack of quality in the race because in a vintage year would he be a short as 14/1 on what he has done so far ?
Alvisio Ville is still something of an unknown as he raced far too freely in the Deloitte but that mere fact that Mullins threw him in there on only his second outing for the yard shows that they clearly rate him. And maybe he’ll be better suited to reverting to 2 miles given the keenness he showed in that race but he still holds a Neptune entry so may not even turn up.
Which leaves Douvan.
Sizing John and Alpha Des Obeaux are both thought very highly of by connections but were laughed at in Douvan’s two victories to date. Mullins is unusually bullish about him saying he’s as nice a novice as they’ve ever sent to Cheltenham and Timeform have him with a large P
There have been many hotpots turned over in this race but in all evidence so far this is weak renewal.
Pray god that Paddy Power or anybody else take the favorite on but even at 2/1 (which will surely be available at some point) he is worthy of a max bet.
Lee
It is a very weak looking race this year. I would like to have seen Nichols Canyon from the front in this one.
I can’t justify betting Douvan at all. I think he has done nothing better than what Serge and Jolly have done. He would have to be at least 4-1 for a bet.
It is a very weak looking race this year. I would like to have seen Nichols Canyon from the front in this one.
I can’t justify betting Douvan at all. I think he has done nothing better than what Serge and Jolly have done. He would have to be at least 4-1 for a bet.
Douvan may be the one but at a general 7/4 now he’s too short by far. He could improve big style but based on what he’s achieved he remains a horse who could go out there and romp home, or be another Mullins horse beaten at a short price.
I was looking at a wee each way on Seedling for this but the stable had a terrible month in January, going 0 for 28. Once they got back amongst the winners I had a bit of a fun punt at 33/1, just really small stakes to provide an interest at big price. The stable have had another couple of winners and are now 4 from 10 this month and he’s a best priced 25/1 now.
Seedling holds entries in other races but I’m hopeful he’ll go in the Supreme and with others liable to go elsewhere he may provide a decent outside shout.
Just hope he doesn’t plant himself at the start
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think Douvan is the right price – not value, but justifiably short. It hurts to see a horse so short for what is usually an open race, but I’ve got him similarly priced on my own book.
By my reckoning, Douvan is the only horse you can already give 155+. L’Ami Serge and Jollyallan are between 5 and 10lbs behind on my ratings, with their clumsiness and size also making them unlikely to run to their best on quicker ground on an undulating track.
Qewy is circa 150 on his win over Cardinal Walter, but isn’t straightforward and again might not be at his best at Cheltenham if he can’t run in a straight line under pressure.
Like Stevecaution, I’m a big fan of Seedling as an each-way option and took 33/1 a couple of weeks back. I would have liked to see him have a prep, but the price accounts for that. He already beat a 140-rated yardstick with some authority under a confident ride and handles Cheltenham well.
I liked Glingerburn too, but once again it seems Nicky Richards is setting out a four year cotton wool plan for that horse.
I think Douvan is the right price – not value, but justifiably short. It hurts to see a horse so short for what is usually an open race, but I’ve got him similarly priced on my own book.
By my reckoning, Douvan is the only horse you can already give 155+. L’Ami Serge and Jollyallan are between 5 and 10lbs behind on my ratings, with their clumsiness and size also making them unlikely to run to their best on quicker ground on an undulating track.
Qewy is circa 150 on his win over Cardinal Walter, but isn’t straightforward and again might not be at his best at Cheltenham if he can’t run in a straight line under pressure.
Like Stevecaution, I’m a big fan of Seedling as an each-way option and took 33/1 a couple of weeks back. I would have liked to see him have a prep, but the price accounts for that. He already beat a 140-rated yardstick with some authority under a confident ride and handles Cheltenham well.
I liked Glingerburn too, but once again it seems Nicky Richards is setting out a four year cotton wool plan for that horse.
Douvan is rated 154 but I was a bit surprised with that mark for beating a horse rated 136 by just under four lengths.
Douvan was an easy winner that day but runner up Alpha Des Obeaux was dropping a full mile in trip from his previous run behind Black Hercules and that always sets alarm bells off for me.
Alpha Des Obeaux was described as one paced behind Douvan and that was not exactly a shock when he was described as one paced the time before, over a mile further.
L’Ami Serge is rated 153, just 1lb behind Douvan and he’s been getting better with every run. He struck me as likely to improve again.
Qewy is rated 138 and although he looked impressive it was a pretty modest race he won last time and I’m not inclined to rate him near 150 yet. Jollyallan is ranked 151 and ran a much more solid looking race than Qewy behind Garde La Victoire, when Bristol De Mai was behind. He’s a much better looking bet at 12/1 than Qewy at only 4pts more.
Seedling is rated 149 and I think he can improve a little bit further. He may just be 5lbs or so short of place material but with the stable back in form I felt 33/1 was worth a squeak.
For me Douvan and L’Ami Serge may be the ones capable of recording a 160 performance and preferred the latter at the odds available given their similar profile this season and their near identical ratings for now.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’d be careful what you wish for msercs.
Somewhat unlucky race for McCoy and since he won on Hors La Loi III in 2000 these are his near misses.
2013 My Tent or Yours (2nd)
2012 Darlan (2nd)
2011 Sprinter Sacre (3rd)
2010 Get Me Out Of Here (2nd)
2008 Binocular (2nd)
2006 Straw Bear (2nd)
2002 Westender (2nd)That’s 5 runners up spots in the past 8 years
I think those stats need to be highlighted in bold. Get Me Out Of Here particularly painful. Johnson just rode him to sleep.
I was keeping my fingers crossed that he wouldn’t get anywhere near Alvisio Ville. Likely improver for step back in trip and change of jockey. Just a shame Geraghty isn’t available but Townend should do.
I’d be careful what you wish for msercs.
Somewhat unlucky race for McCoy and since he won on Hors La Loi III in 2000 these are his near misses.
2013 My Tent or Yours (2nd)
2012 Darlan (2nd)
2011 Sprinter Sacre (3rd)
2010 Get Me Out Of Here (2nd)
2008 Binocular (2nd)
2006 Straw Bear (2nd)
2002 Westender (2nd)That’s 5 runners up spots in the past 8 years
I think those stats need to be highlighted in bold. Get Me Out Of Here particularly painful. Johnson just rode him to sleep.
I was keeping my fingers crossed that he wouldn’t get anywhere near Alvisio Ville. Likely improver for step back in trip and change of jockey. Just a shame Geraghty isn’t available but Townend should do.
Did you read Willie Mullins comments regarding Alvisio Ville in a recent interview Stilvi?
“The chances are he’s going to run in the Sky Bet Supreme. I thought he learnt more bad habits than good ones last time but I’ll say no more about that. Connections are leaning towards the Supreme with him and that’s fine with me.”
Suggests he wasn’t that happy with the ride from AP.
Fairplay Steve, interesting to see your ratings on the race.
I think Qewy’s win has been underrated somewhat. Cardinal Walter is a very good horse already rated 140 as a hurdler after showing 91-rated ability on the flat. Qewy got 6lbs from him at Newbury, but slammed him to look the better horse by at least 5lbs. Bouvreuil, one of the top horses in the Fred Winter betting, was further back in that Newbury race. I think Qewy‘s 145-150 ability is hard to question, but his awkwardness will cost him at Cheltenham.
Likewise L’Ami Serge and Jollyallan. The way Jollyallan was so readily outpaced in the Irish Champion bumper by mainly staying types on better ground is a hard memory to erase. Maybe something was amiss, but it seems far from coincidental that was the first time he faced good horses on good ground. The way he bungles so many jumps makes me sense that he could be wheelspinning again in the Supreme unless the ground comes up soft.
L’Ami Serge has similar queries to answer. He has a habit of messing up the final flight, which in a vacuum isn’t a bad trait for a Supreme horse after Darlan, Get Me Out Of Here and other horses with below-average technique placed in the race. Still, the specifics of L’Ami Serge’s problem make me question his overall balance when in top gear. I don’t horses with those kinds of question marks on undulating tracks and fear he could be another caught flat-footed on better ground when asked to quicken.
L’Ami Serge’s raw ability was backed up by the run of Jolly’s Cracked It to place in the Betfair Hurdle from such an unpromising early position. I’m just taking him on from a visual interpretation and don’t doubt his ability in the right conditions.
Douvan’s form just gets better all the time. He has laughed at several 130-135 horses – and that’s using Irish official ratings which are usually boosted a few lbs by the British handicapper. Previous victim Rock On The Moor helped his cause by beating some smart mares midweek too. He is also so adaptable, happy to sit handy, lead or be held up. Qewy, L’Ami Serge and Jollyallan are all awkward animals I’d describe as "difficult rides". Being so easy to steer, tactically versatile and easily sttled, Douvan will be a big help to Ruby Walsh, who is such a master of the Supreme.
Another plus for Douvan is his breeding. As a son of Walk In The Park, I fancy that he’ll improve for better ground where others may flounder on it. Walk In The Park’s clear career-best was his run to be second behind Motivator on good ground in the Epsom Derby.
As well as Seedling, I’d give an each-way squeak to Max Dynamite if he can prove his wellbeing. He’s a fragile horse and clearly wasn’t right when beaten last time, but previously put up a performance that tallied well with some of the key players.
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