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Indeed. It’s sad if Seedling doesn’t run his best race after beating Some Plan so impressively. Warren Greatrex mentioned on his blog that Shantou Bob and Cole Harden were recently sent for breathing operations, but the vibes are hardly great from that stable at the moment.
I guess it does make some sense as a combination of factors like you say. Being behind on incremental race fitness, too much freshness, hints of an interrupted preparation etc might be the crux of it.
Since 2010, the following have tried:
2014
Valseur Lido (10th @ 16/1)
Three Kingdoms (12th @ 33/1)2013
Jezki (3rd @ 5/1)
Dodging Bullets (9th @ 12/1)
Ostentation (PU @ 200/1)2012
Steps To Freedom (14th @ 13/2)
2011
Dunraven Storm (PU Lame @ 20/1)
2010
Cootehill (14th @ 66/1)
That is a very small sample that needs more investigation, but there might be a negative trend emerging. You certainly can’t say any of those horses outran their odds or defied expectations. You could even argue that all of them apart from Ostentation and Cootehill significantly underachieved on their levels of form before and after the race.
An expansion on your research TYF
2009
Medermit 2nd 12/1 (1¼l)
Michael Flips 10th 9/1
Golan Way 11th 28/1
Leo’s Lucky Star 14th 50/1
Leamington Lad PU 150/12008
Captain Cee Bee 1st 17/2
Snap Tie 3rd 20/1 (6½l)
Muirhead 12th 8/1cf
Norther Bay PU 150/12007
Kicks For Free 8th 22/1
Tipperary All Star 14th 16/1
Shanghide 17th 80/1
She’s Our Daisy 19th 100/12006
Buena Vista 3rd 14/1 (1½l)
O’Muircheartaigh 10th 14/12005
Shuhood 12th 33/1
Cherub 14th 33/1
Villon 17th 16/12004
No qualifiers
33/1 runner up War Of Attrition raced on 4th Jan -Supreme ran on 16th. Would have qualified as having not ran in calender year in most years.2003
Mutakarrim 9th 14/1
2002
Westender 2nd 6/1 (¼l)
Turkestan 11th 66/1
Fireball Macnamara 22nd 100/1I thought L’ami Serges last run was in January, does that not count to this calendar year? As far as breaks go, there can be as much as 6 days difference in recent times when Supreme is run…its an early one this year again…so how reliable are stats on breaks between races?
I’m somewhat intrigued by this too…
L’Ami Serge’s last run will be 66 days before the Supreme so if nobody else does, I’ll expand it to that parameter after I’ve popped out.
From what I’ve seen so far, a break of that nature causes a slightly negative strike rate but certainly nothing terminal.
Some need a run, some don’t. Of those mentioned in previous years, could factors other than not fitting the chosen stat window have accounted for festival defeat? Like not being good enough? Or having an off day?
Thankfully, the power of stats is waning. A few years back, it was all you heard. Some produced a half decent shortcut, but the age stat, for example, was total nonsense in many cases.
Some need a run, some don’t. Of those mentioned in previous years, could factors other than not fitting the chosen stat window have accounted for festival defeat? Like not being good enough? Or having an off day?
Thankfully, the power of stats is waning. A few years back, it was all you heard. Some produced a half decent shortcut, but the age stat, for example, was total nonsense in many cases.
I think they are more prevalent in handicaps, however in championship races they are used/made to suit an argument too often.
Seven year olds winning the RSA for last 8 years is one, but obviously the common age for a 3 miler going novice chaser is seven!
How often had they ran prior to the break? Was the absence by design or was it through injury? Was it due to poor weather? I agree that for the most part, stats are very much much of a muchness. But they’re still fun and it’s interesting to see just how much of a much of a muchness they are.
In terms of the predominant colour on the winning jockey’s silks, since 2000, Green has four wins, Pink has three, Yellow has two and Brown, Black, Blue and Purple each have one. The market is dominated by those carrying Pink and Green whereas Maroon and Red are conspicuous in their absence.
2014
Valseur Lido – W Mullins (80 days) 10th 16/1
Three Kingdoms – J Ferguson (74 days) 12th 33/12013
Jezki – J Harrington (75 days) 3rd 5/1 (2¾l)
Dodging Bullets – P Nicholls (76 days) 9th 12/1
Ostentation – A Lidderdale (146 days) PU 200/12012
Prospect Wells – P Nicholls (66 days) 5th 14/1 (2¼l)
Jimbill – T Vaughan (72 days) 11th 100/1
Steps To Freedom – J Harrington (123 days) 14th 13/22011
Cue Card – C Tizzard (94 days) 4th 7/4
Dunraven Storm – P Hobbs (115 days) PU 20/1
Marsh Warbler – B Ellison (66 days) 11th 22/12010
Cootehill – N Twiston-Davies (80 days) 14th 66/1
2009
Medermit – A King (81 days) 2nd 12/1 (1¼l)
Michael Flips – A Turnell (74 days) 10th 9/1
Golan Way – S West (81 days) 11th 28/1
Leo’s Lucky Star – D Pipe (116 days) 14th 50/1
Leamington Lad – N Twiston-Davies (80 days) PU 150/12008
Captain Cee Bee – E Harty (115 days) 1st 17/2
Snap Tie – P Hobbs (88 days) 3rd 20/1 (6½l)
Deep Purple – E Williams (66 days) 9th 16/1
Muirhead – N Meade (100 days) 12th 8/1cf
Norther Bay – E Griffin (132 days) PU 150/12007
De Soto – P Webber (66 days) 4th 12/1
Kicks For Free – P Nicholls (77 days) 8th 22/1
Tipperary All Star – M Halford (87 days) 14th 16/1
Shanghide – M Morris (74 days) 17th 80/1
She’s Our Daisy – R Buckler (96 days) 19th 100/12006
Buena Vista – M Pipe (95 days) 3rd 14/1 (1½l)
O’Muircheartaigh – E O’Grady (100 days) 10th 14/12005
Chilling Place – P Hobbs (66 days) 6th 9/1
Shuhood – P Webber 102 days) 12th 33/1
Cherub – J O’Neill (88 days) 14th 33/1
Villon – L Lungo (78 days) 17th 16/1
Only Vintage – H Knight (69 days) 19th 12/12004
War Of Attrition – M Morris (72 days) 2nd 33/1 (¼l)
Perle de Puce – N Henderson (73 days) PU 8/12003
Inca Trail – H Knight (67 days) 8th 14/1
Mutakarrim – D Weld (100 days) 9th 14/12002
Westender – M Pipe (80 days) 2nd 6/1 (¼l)
Turkestan – M Pipe (116 days) 11th 66/1
Fireball Macnamara – M Pitman (88 days) 22nd 100/12000
Best Mate – H Knight (66 days) 2nd 6/1 (¾l)
Rodock – M Pipe (74 days) 5th 7/1 (2¾l)Looking at those whose run came exactly 66 days before the Supreme, five of the six came from the Tolworth (the other being Marsh Warbler who won the rearranged Finale Hurdle at Chepstow).
Prospect Wells 4th Tolworth 5th Supreme
Deep Purple 2nd Tolworth 9th Supreme
De Soto 4th Tolworth 4th Supreme
Chilling Place 3rd Tolworth 6th Supreme
Best Mate 2nd Tolworth 2nd SupremeWhat’s interesting that none of those who’d used the Tolworth as the immediate prep for the Supreme actually won at Sandown but they all ran respectably in the Supreme without actually winning. One can conclude that L’Ami Serge is at no particular disadvantage on account of his absence.
All of this information is fundamentally useless as each race and each horse can only be assessed on their own baseis. Nevertheless, there is still a satisfaction in doing the required research and because of that, I don’t feel like the past hour of my life has been a complete waste. Those reading the findings may feel differently though
Steeplechasing makes a good point.
It really has to be used lightly. If the horse was having the first run all season I’d be more concerned.
An example is that a few years ago I was worried about the stat in the champion hurdle for Rock on Ruby. However the best run of his life had come when lumping weight in a hurdle race in November fresh. So I was not concerned about the break.
You really have to take all contenders preferences into account.
Also, if you follow stats like this blind, you rule out a horse that last ran 31/12 but consider one on the 1/1. That just makes no sense.
Most of the keys races have strong trends where a recent run or amount of runs is required. I think the one most notable exception is the Gold Cup.
Most of the keys races have strong trends where a recent run or amount of runs is required. I think the one most notable exception is the Gold Cup.
I’m not a believer in such trends myself. It follows that if the majority of horses have a prep run then the majority of race winners will have had a prep. I think statistics are often used quite flippantly in horse racing, using small samples and presenting findings that may not be of statistical significance.
Most of the keys races have strong trends where a recent run or amount of runs is required. I think the one most notable exception is the Gold Cup.
I’m not a believer in such trends myself. It follows that if the majority of horses have a prep run then the majority of race winners will have had a prep. I think statistics are often used quite flippantly in horse racing, using small samples and presenting findings that may not be of statistical significance.
I’m respectful of the stats which helped me look for alternatives to Champagne Fever in the Arkle and Ballycasey in the RSA, also ignoring Feltham winners in the latter.
I don’t place total faith in them but i think they have to be strongly considered
Most of the keys races have strong trends where a recent run or amount of runs is required. I think the one most notable exception is the Gold Cup.
I’m not a believer in such trends myself. It follows that if the majority of horses have a prep run then the majority of race winners will have had a prep. I think statistics are often used quite flippantly in horse racing, using small samples and presenting findings that may not be of statistical significance.
I’m respectful of the stats which helped me look for alternatives to Champagne Fever in the Arkle and Ballycasey in the RSA, also ignoring Feltham winners in the latter.
I don’t place total faith in them but i think they have to be strongly considered
Whatever lines your pockets, each to their own and all that
In 2008 I fancied Cap Cee Bee for the Supreme. One of the highly popular stats ‘experts’ offered this advice for the race: ‘put a line through 7-y-olds: they have a terrible record’
Cap Cee Bee was 7, so I checked back the previous 10 Supremes, and found that a tiny percentage of the runners were 7 – under 5%, from memory.
How many stats followers dismissed the winner that year on a single piece of statistically ridiculous advice?
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There are a couple of major differences between Vautour / Faugheen at this stage last season and Douvan this time around.
Firstly, and most importantly, the price. He’s woeful short at 2/1 for a horse who beat a three miler last time out. If I remember correctly Faugheen was around 4 or 5/1 at this stage last season and the opposition for his Neptune looked weaker.
Secondly, Douvan has not yet been off the bridle. I remember you question what Faugheen might find when discussing the Neptune on here last year but he had already showed what he could do when Patrick Mullins unleashed the beast at Punchestown. Likewise, this time last year Vautour was about to thump The Tullow Tank in the Deloitte. Douvan goes to Cheltenham with two easy wins under his belt, is it not a doubt for you this year that he has not come off the bridle, particularly when he’s half the price Faugheen was?
Finally, I feel Douvan is being priced as if he is Vauutour / Faugheen. He may well be as good or better but the chances are he is not. He may not have to be as good as either to win but at 2/1 I couldn’t touch him. Fair enough if you’re on at bigger prices but I’m happy to look elsewhere.
The Deloitte on Sunday should be very informative. I heard great things about Alvisio Ville before his maiden hurdle and he’ll likely be hot favourite. It’s Identity Thief who most interests me more though.At 33/1 for the Supreme he looks the liveliest of the outsiders to me.
Sorry for not getting back to you last week!
I think you’re right in saying Faugheen was 4/1 or 5/1 at this time last year and admittedly Douvan is an incredibly short price for a horse that hasn’t done much racing, but I believe the price reflects the bookies paranoid-ness when it comes to Mullins novice hurdlers, especially given his recent record in this category at Cheltenham, I assume they got their fingers burnt with Faugheen/Vautour last year and don’t want that to happen again.
Yep that was my concern with Faugheen last year and I was duly proven wrong, however I’ve learnt from my mistakes and won’t let that happen again, just because a Mullins horse hasn’t come off the bridle it doesn’t mean he can’t find a lot when asked the question. I’m no trainer but like to think I have a good eye for a horse and Douvan has bags of speed and loads of gears, I’m saying this on instinct but he’ll have more speed than the rest of the field come Supreme day.
The price is short, there’s no doubting that, but in this race you have to trust Mullins knows what he has in his bag and if he was worried about Douvan then he’d have put a couple more runs in him, or simply send a different horse to the Supreme altogether. Mullins knows he has a beast and I have faith in the Irish wizard.
If you can trust the trainer, the price shouldn’t put you off.
In 2008 I fancied Cap Cee Bee for the Supreme. One of the highly popular stats ‘experts’ offered this advice for the race: ‘put a line through 7-y-olds: they have a terrible record’
Cap Cee Bee was 7, so I checked back the previous 10 Supremes, and found that a tiny percentage of the runners were 7 – under 5%, from memory.
How many stats followers dismissed the winner that year on a single piece of statistically ridiculous advice?
That’s a weak stat though and shouldn’t be used without other information.
I read a small snippet somewhere that Silver Concorde may bypass Cheltenham altogether this year. Does anyone know if there is any credence to this?
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