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Have to go to work mate and don’t have the time to write the response I’d like to but I’ll get back to you tonight!
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Bloody hell never heard of that Alvisio Ville will watch his win when I get back
Bloody hell never heard of that Alvisio Ville will watch his win when I get back
Won like a very good horse at Christmas and around 8/1 for the Supreme. Think that’s short enough for what he has done myself but another in the ‘could be anything’ category.
Bloody hell never heard of that Alvisio Ville will watch his win when I get back
Won like a very good horse at Christmas and around 8/1 for the Supreme. Think that’s short enough for what he has done myself but another in the ‘could be anything’ category.
I’m a tad happy with my supreme book :
Douvan 12/1 , 9/2 Any race
Alvisio Ville 33/1 EWAlso day 1 Mullins 4 Timer
AV 10/1
UDS 5/2
Faugh 5/4
Annie P 11/8
Bloody hell never heard of that Alvisio Ville will watch his win when I get back
Won like a very good horse at Christmas and around 8/1 for the Supreme. Think that’s short enough for what he has done myself but another in the ‘could be anything’ category.
I’m a tad happy with my supreme book :
Douvan 12/1 , 9/2 Any race
Alvisio Ville 33/1 EWAlso day 1 Mullins 4 Timer
AV 10/1
UDS 5/2
Faugh 5/4
Annie P 11/8 I’d be happy with that too
Only Supreme bet I’ve had is L’Ami Serge at 7/1. Requested prices about Alvisio Ville before his debut but preferred to take 11/10 for that than 33/1 for the Supreme. Thought he was short enough then afterwards so left him be. May add Identity Thief before the weekend.
I’d be happy with that too
Only Supreme bet I’ve had is L’Ami Serge at 7/1. Requested prices about Alvisio Ville before his debut but preferred to take 11/10 for that than 33/1 for the Supreme. Thought he was short enough then afterwards so left him be. May add Identity Thief before the weekend.
When I got the info only BET 365 were offering him I think so thought it was worth a speculative punt.
Re Douvan, I cant for the life of me remember where, but I read at the time that connections held him in as equally high regard as Allez Colom..(before his sad loss) "and could well turn out to be another Vautour". So that persuaded me !!
I can see exactly the same result in this as last year.
Mullins favourite very classy – winner vautour – now douvan
Henderson horse great form but not quite the same class 2nd josses hill – now l’ami serge.Henderson has a nack of getting his horses placed in this and then they generally mature the following year. Eg
MTOY, josses hill , sprinter sacre, darlan.
Seems like the same fate lies with l’ami serge. Will be 2nd/3rdIt’s exactly that sort of thinking which is making Douvan 2/1 favorite for this Jasolong. Not a criticism but an observation.
This race has been a graveyard for short priced favorites and horses like Dunguib and Cue Card at least had top class bumper form and were previous festival winners.
I’m not saying Douvan can’t win but his price is on reputation & potential rather than the form-book and Mullins is not going to win this every year.
If you haven’t already, take a look at the card and tell me that you think 2/1 is any sort of value.
http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=614834&r_date=2015-03-10#raceTabs=lc_
Also interesting that Mullins isn’t sending the jolly for the Deloitte on Sunday as 3 of his 4 Supreme winners went there with only the unfancied 40/1 rag Ebaziyan taking a different route.
Alvisio Ville one of 5 entries from the yard.
Lee
Douvan was impressive last time but the little form coming from the race since looks nothing special.
Marinero was third to Douvan, beaten 6 and 3/4 lengths and he went off 9/4 favourite at Navan next time but finished 4th, beaten nearly 20 lengths by the winner Zabana, a horse rated 130, off level weights.
As easily as Douvan accounted for Marinero, it puts the form into some sort of perspective and it needs to be remembered that Douvan was 1/3 favourite when winning his race.
Of course Douvan could be anything but they can’t all be champions and 2/1 is grim value in my opinion.
My fancy Allez Colombieres only managed to jump two hurdles before tragedy struck and we’ll never know what would have happened with him but I wouldn’t have taken 2/1 on him either, unless he had won 20 lengths hard held on his debut.
I like L’Ami Serge as a prospect, he seems to have made big progress already and reports suggest he’s improving still. Something about his Tolworth win makes me think he’s got more to give and with Mullin’s other horse Alvisio Ville respected after one win but also with enough to prove, I make L’Ami Serge favourite on my own betting for the race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Alvisio Ville is taking a walk in the market for the Supreme Novices and being slashed in for the Neptune instead. It would seem to indicate he won’t be lining up the Supreme.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Following the Deloitte it’s hard to know what to make of the Irish contenders for this. Most of the Mullins horses keep beating each other, while the Weld horses have been tenderly ridden in defeat. I’d prefer Nichols Canyon at 2m than in the Neptune given how well he jumped on Sunday, but it’s anyone’s guess what race they go for. Shaneshill is interesting but hasn’t been seen since going down to No More Heroes. He didn’t jump that fluently that day but he’s another to consider. All things said I’d prefer him at 16/1 to Douvan at 2’s.
I’m happy enough to be on L’Ami Serge given the shocking price Douvan is and the lack of a standout horse among the rest of the Irish challengers.
There is a very strong stat against horses who haven’t had a run in the same calendar year as their try in the Supreme. I think Fivelongdays mentioned the specifics in his podcast.
L’Ami Serge and Seedling are two of the horses who look like going there without another race.
There is a very strong stat against horses who haven’t had a run in the same calendar year as their try in the Supreme. I think Fivelongdays mentioned the specifics in his podcast.
L’Ami Serge and Seedling are two of the horses who look like going there without another race.
What is the basis for the stat though? Is it because they lack the experience required? Lack race fitness? Being too fresh on the day? How many have tried? What was the chance of any of them winning? Etc.
I guess it does make some sense as a combination of factors like you say. Being behind on incremental race fitness, too much freshness, hints of an interrupted preparation etc might be the crux of it.
Since 2010, the following have tried:
2014
Valseur Lido (10th @ 16/1)
Three Kingdoms (12th @ 33/1)2013
Jezki (3rd @ 5/1)
Dodging Bullets (9th @ 12/1)
Ostentation (PU @ 200/1)2012
Steps To Freedom (14th @ 13/2)
2011
Dunraven Storm (PU Lame @ 20/1)
2010
Cootehill (14th @ 66/1)
That is a very small sample that needs more investigation, but there might be a negative trend emerging. You certainly can’t say any of those horses outran their odds or defied expectations. You could even argue that all of them apart from Ostentation and Cootehill significantly underachieved on their levels of form before and after the race.
Thanks for the info TYF.
Valseur Lido wasn’t beaten that far and Step To Freedom just isn’t that good, but as you say the sample size is very small.
I think with modern training methods trainers are often happy to intentionally go to Cheltenham without a run. (Not the same as missing a race through a setback and having no option but to go without a run, you’d probably have to exclude them in an investigation but how you’d find out which horses is anyone’s guess.)
In the case of L’Ami Serge I wouldn’t be too worried given the experience he gained last season in France. Likewise Faugheen in the Champion Hurdle: he won off a break last season and I’m guessing Mullins is happy to stick to the same path with him.
There is a very strong stat against horses who haven’t had a run in the same calendar year as their try in the Supreme. I think Fivelongdays mentioned the specifics in his podcast.
L’Ami Serge and Seedling are two of the horses who look like going there without another race.
Seedling would appear to have a bigger problem. The stable went 0 for 28 in January and haven’t had a runner for a couple of weeks.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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