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On what they have achieved L’Ami Serge should be favourite for this after today. Douvan’s form was franked by Sizing John and could be anything but L’Ami Serge has shown himself to be very smart on three occasions now.
The form of his handicap win has been franked, while he beat a decent yardstick in Killultagh Vic without breaking a sweat. The worry is that he has never raced on anything better than soft ground but being by King’s Theatre he could actually improve for a sounder surface.
Fascinating horse, L’Ami Serge, and I’m unsure what to make of him. I’d like to see him in the flesh. On TV he looks imposing, but his back end seems too powerful for his front end, if that doesn’t sound daft. He looks a bit of cut ‘n’ shut to me.
On the plus side, he settled remarkably well off a slow early pace yesterday, especially for a horse who looks like he loves racing. He came away readily when asked and hurdled better off that quickening pace. From what I’ve seen of him earlier, that gangliness could cause him problems at his hurdles. It’ll be interesting to see him come down the hill at Cheltenham.
He gallops like a stayer, but he pulled up pretty quickly after the finish yesterday. It was tiring ground, but I wonder just how much he’ll find up the hill off a fast pace? Still, he has a fair bit of growing to do, so we’ll see.
My main doubt would be over his French form. I know he ran in some decent races, but 6 without a win? There’s every chance he’s simply getting better as he fills out and gains experience, but, again, it would just make me hesitate.
I’ll look forward to seeing him develop, but will keep my cash in my pocket for now.
I disagree with the hype for L’Ami Serge and think that he is no value at 6/1 when you can get 5/1 on Douvan.
L’Ami Serge is a big, gangly awkward animal with a history of making mistakes at the final flight. I don’t think that overall poor jumping technique makes much difference in the Supreme (see Darlan, Get Me Out Of Here), but these errors hint that this horse struggles to co-ordinate himself under pressure. I think he’ll be all at sea on the better ground at March.
Another worry if that he hasn’t beaten any proper speed animals. Kilcooley and Killultagh Vic are both 2m 4f+ horses and, although he has shown a turn of pace, Jolly’s Cracked It is likely to get 3m+ in time like his brother Crack Away Jack.
Donald McCain’s French import
Konig Dax
is entered for Catterick midweek. He beat Douvan in France and is currently 25/1 for the Supreme. Might be a slice of value if he wins on debut and the stable form picks up?
I haven’t seen much that takes my fancy since my original hope met his tragic end.
With no real value on offer I am taking a chance and backing a horse that hasn’t jumped a twig yet.
Open Eagle was a big improver for David O’Meara on the level last year and rounded off his campaign in that sphere by dismantling the field in The November Handicap by twelve lengths. A good sum of money was paid to send him to Willie Mullins and it was reported that they are pleased with him there. For a while now it was reported that Open Eagle will make his debut in the middle of this month.
The Supreme would seem the only logical target for Open Eagle if he wins his first race and as a horse rated 104 on the flat, he should win races over hurdles if he can jump competently.
It’s a dark shot but at 33/1 I thought he was worth a go in the hope that he lines up on the day with form figures of -11 and Ruby Walsh on board. Won’t be 33/1 in that scenario.
Open Eagle Supreme Novices 33/1
Closes eyes and re-commences dream.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Same Konig Dax that L’Ami Serge handed a 37 length beating too when third in Auteuil? No thanks.
Same Konig Dax that L’Ami Serge handed a 37 length beating too when third in Auteuil? No thanks.
According to McCain, Konig Dax got injured that day, hence the missed year before coming back to thrash Douvan on his last French start.
I like Open Eagle but would be worried about him on good ground. He loved a ploughed field type bog on the flat.
Before I go in, has anyone got any clear reason to avoid Alvisio Ville?
Had a look at the runners near the head of the market and he appeals most at 12-1 Betfair. I am not overly keen on L’Ami, just because, as mentioned before I would have liked to see him win at least one of the six in France.
Douvan could still be the one. He is a bit short though. I would want a top speed over 115 to consider a bet. Just an angle I will stick with. Alvisio pinged a 111 on his first start for Mullins.
I will be watching keenly for the prep runs now, Vautour was out in Dec, jan and Feb last year and I will be looking for similar prep for these two.
I would also have wanted to see a horse who has raced before now over hurdles, I’d be shocked if a newcomer now went on to win. THere is little depth at the moment though. FOr me it is the first three in the betting but I’d go Alvisio at 12-1. I’ll no doubt cover one of the others too.
Cheers for the response on Konig. I will definitely lookout for that one then. I might ave a point on at 33-1 if this is the case. As I just said it is not the deepest field at the moment. I would expect a few more contenders at this time of the year. Mullins Vs Henderson. Where are the rest?
I like Open Eagle but would be worried about him on good ground. He loved a ploughed field type bog on the flat.
Yes, I’ll be worried if there’s no cut in the ground but surely they will stick some water on for safety reasons if the rains are absent.
The other way of looking at it as a positive would be a potential offsetting of the stamina strength that more stoutly bred contenders probably possess compared to the son of Montjeu.
I expect he’ll have to win really well on debut to stir the market up for Cheltenham.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
If Lami goes straight to the Supreme without another run I’d be against him. The record of horses running in this after a fair break is diabolical. Runners from the previous Champion Bumper have done well in this in recent years, so I’ll be looking to play the front two from last year – depending on their next run.
If Lami goes straight to the Supreme without another run I’d be against him. The record of horses running in this after a fair break is diabolical. Runners from the previous Champion Bumper have done well in this in recent years, so I’ll be looking to play the front two from last year – depending on their next run.
Yes – i think almost all recent winners have had a run within about 45 days
I’ve backed L’Ami Serge, Tell Us More each way and Nichols Canyon each way.
Don’t like the profile of L’ami Serge, too many runs for a typical Supreme winner.
I’ve got a few quid on Douvain at 12s but my best bet thanks to the heads up from a noteable judge is Alisio Ville at 33s EW.Talking through my pocket of course, but he created a big impression on debut and the stable think he’s dynamite (hence the tip I got). JP loves a bash at the Supreme, so we can be pretty certain he won’t be shuffled to suit trainer/stable jockey etc.
Douvan sauntered home at 1/3 today and was cut to a best priced 3/1 for Cheltenham.
As low as 9/4 and with L’Ami Serge as low as 4/1 in behind him, I don’t think there’s a molecule of value in either horse.
My outsider Open Eagle is said to have schooled well and "Looks a natural" according to connections, who have said there are several suitable targets for him nearer the end of the month and that he will run in one of those races. I’d like to have seen him out before now, as it looks like he could only have two runs, at most, before the Festival and if he only manages one, he’ll be very short on experience if lining up in March.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Anyone taken double figures on Douvan must be happy with that run yesterday. The horse oozes class and that was the race Vautour won last year so he’s in good company. Ruby said beforehand that he is flexible regards trip so they have the option of other races which has put me off the 3’s. If he was guaranteed to be running in the Supreme however the 3’s would look nice enough.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Anyone taken double figures on Douvan must be happy with that run yesterday. The horse oozes class and that was the race Vautour won last year so he’s in good company. Ruby said beforehand that he is flexible regards trip so they have the option of other races which has put me off the 3’s. If he was guaranteed to be running in the Supreme however the 3’s would look nice enough.
I think hes a nigh on certainty for the supreme – the yard never like to say with certainty but i’d be shocked if this is not their supreme no1. Same route as vautour indicates this also.
Didn’t beat a lot yesterday (a few stayers as ruby said) but he beat the opposition as you would expect him to beat them. On the bridle without ruby flinching.Douvan fits into the could be anything category but there will no doubt be plenty of others who do the same at bigger odds.
There really isn’t that much evidence in the book to suggest he deserves to be such a short price. He beat what in terms of winning at Cheltenham was only an ordinary field albeit very easily.
Nobody seemed too bothered but I thought he actually surrendered a little ground at virtually every jump. With a massive class advantage that didn’t matter but perhaps on a quicker surface in March it might be that much more significant.
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