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I’m sleeping alot easier now the scare of tuesday with the drifting of Vautour has been passed off by all as a load of nonsense. After covering off Irving on the Paddy Special, it’s time to go in again at 100/30 NRNB. This horse is the real deal he has everything you want in a Supreme Winner.
There is a genuine chance that Walsh/Mullins could have the 4 timer up on Tuesday and if you’re not already on it’s got to be worth a couple of quid because i’ll be on here shouting "told you so" !!
I agree Shack, definitely looks the most solid of those at the head of the Supreme market. If Mullins has a four timer on day one what price will Faugheen be on Wednesday
Vaniteux a confirmed runner after previously appearing likely to head straight to Aintree
Farcical tempo of the last run at Donny but did look very good. Thought they might have opted for a handicap.
I noted that there was serious odds slashing on Faugheen for the Supreme Novices, I thought he was more or less a cert to be running in the Neptune, where he is favourite. Paddy Power have been 7s for some time, but plenty of 33s has been the norm, but today Betvictor cut odds from 25/1 to 10/1, Stan James 8/1 from 33/1 and Coral 8/1 from 20/1. Has anyone heard any rumblings from anywhere that there may be a switch?
I noted that there was serious odds slashing on Faugheen for the Supreme Novices, I thought he was more or less a cert to be running in the Neptune, where he is favourite. Paddy Power have been 7s for some time, but plenty of 33s has been the norm, but today Betvictor cut odds from 25/1 to 10/1, Stan James 8/1 from 33/1 and Coral 8/1 from 20/1. Has anyone heard any rumblings from anywhere that there may be a switch?
More than likely because firms are going NRNB
Im still firmly in the vautour camp for this race im topping up even more with the PP offer
I noted that there was serious odds slashing on Faugheen for the Supreme Novices, I thought he was more or less a cert to be running in the Neptune, where he is favourite. Paddy Power have been 7s for some time, but plenty of 33s has been the norm, but today Betvictor cut odds from 25/1 to 10/1, Stan James 8/1 from 33/1 and Coral 8/1 from 20/1. Has anyone heard any rumblings from anywhere that there may be a switch?
More than likely because firms are going NRNB
You’re probably right about the NRNB, although there’s been that offer on for a while with some bookmakers. I just wondered why today there was such a shift. I still think its odds on he will go for the Neptune.
I wish I knew if Cup Final was going here or the Neptune. I think there is a good chance he will miss the festival altogether and be targeted elsewhere, but if he did turn up in either of these, the huge odds (66/1 and 50/1) would be very attractive e/w. I think he is going to turn into a very good horse.
I have just spent the day on this race and picked the contenders apart one at a time. If you are a glutton for punishment, check out my in-depth blog on the race.
http://raginggibberish.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/supreme-novices-hurdle.html
(edited incorrect link)
Basically though, I believe that the main Irish contenders are much of a muchness. Wicklow Brave and Vautour are closely matched on collateral form and Wicklow Brave hardly sets a daunting standard, let’s face it.
I do hate to begin the meeting by jumping on the favourite, but all of this talk about Irving being a bridle horse seems like nonsense. He needed more than 1m 4f on the flat and was actually ridden very aggressively to beat Kasbah Bliss at Fontainebleu. If you watch that race, you’ll see what a giver he is off the bit. For a horse with such strong stamina to show great speed over hurdles is really impressive. I think he has the perfect combination of attributes.
I am also on Gilgamboa and Vaniteux each-way. Coming into this race via a win in a hot handicap is a tried-and-tested path to good results for JP (see Get Me Out Of Here and My Tent Or Yours). The Boylesports Hurdle looked much stronger than the Betfair Hurdle and Gilgamboa produced a far superior run at the weights than Splash Of Ginge, so he has to be right up there.
As for Vaniteux, his win over Vibrato Valtat looks brilliant in hindsight. Tiqris was in the process of franking that form until being brought down at the weekend, while Vibrato Valtat might enhance it even further in the Imperial Cup. Stamina is one of Vaniteux’s best assets and he looked much more assured in the jumping stakes at Doncaster.
So it’s:
Irving
to win
Gilgamboa
each-way
Vaniteux
each-way
I have been hugely impressed by Irving.
Hopefully the hill won’t catch him out.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
What about irvings sketchy jumping?.Surely that’s a concern if your backing a 5-2 shot?.
I am not really worried about Irving’s jumping. He is very fluent and attacks his hurdles. He has trailed his back legs through a few, but it has never been enough to break his momentum. I don’t think you could have any doubts about him facing up to the final flight at high speed, whereas the likes of Josses Hill, Vaniteux or Faugheen could bottle it.
Compared to Faugheen, for example, who takes extra strides and corkscrews his body at many flights, he’s electric.
i’ve seen irving get away with a few mistakes granted it didn’t stop his momentum,he knocked one out off the ground at ascot!
i’ve seen irving get away with a few mistakes granted it didn’t stop his momentum,he knocked one out off the ground at ascot!
I mentioned soon after he’d won the Betfair, I thought Splash of Ginger was very impressive, so I was please to see a ‘brussel sprout’ or journo informed by one, report that he’d been looking impressive on the gallops, and that he considered he’d been underestimated for the Supreme.
I checked the record of the race again, and … for crying out loud… the win money was 83 thousand pounds, and you should see the horses that came in behind him – and he was going away at the finish. I’ve just taken 25s from Ladbrokes, with a small, place bet.
Famous last words…. big fields of high-class horses not being the safest betting propositions, I suppose.
I dunno Grimey. I love Splash Of Ginge and think he might win a Gold Cup in a few years, but the Betfair Hurdle was not as good as the Boylesports Hurdle this year.
Compare the likes of Irish Saint, Swing Bowler, Cheltenian and Far West with Flaxen Flare and Quick Jack. Which set of beaten horses was better handicapped? It has to be the Boylesports.
Given the differential between UK and Irish handicap marks, Splash Of Ginge being ridden by a VERY good value claimer AND Gilgamboa producing a better weight-carrying performance, I can’t see how Splash Of Ginge beats him.
And that’s just one horse – there’s a whole army of other contenders to worry about!
Splash Of Ginge is a long term National horse, so whatever he does now is a bonus. Can’t see him winning this, but could place, very good front running horse, reminds me of Hello Bud.
Quite keen on Josses Hill for win purposes, think he has all the right credentials and a fair price too. Irving big lay for me I’m afraid.
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