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He looks a bit of a machine alright CS – hope he continues to mop up in Ireland and heads over here for some regulation chases too.
He looks a bit of a machine alright CS – hope he continues to mop up in Ireland and heads over here for some regulation chases too.
Rumour has it An Siorac’s next race will be the Group 2 Irish Daily Star Chase at Punchestown in October, looks like their sights are (correctly) set at the very top, I’m sure Enda regrets never having run Elegant Lord in a Gold Cup.
DUTY DANCE
5.15 Limerick, the easy winner of what was probably a fairly average point before going on to finish third in a hot Bumper on his second outing. The winner ran up to probably the best bumper horse seen out this summer while the third won easily a Perth this week. (PR Forecast 7/1)
THE FOX’S FROLIC
3.45 Limerick, a winning pointer who was given a very strange ride for a front runner last time out. His regular pilot, a lady amateur, is replaced by a decent professional tomorrow although the trip might be on the short side I he’s given a positive ride he could go well at decent odds. (PR Forecast 25/1)
STEPS TO FREEDOM
5.35 Bellewstown won in the manner of a very good horse on his debut, Gordon Elliot’s stable is red hot at the moment and Nina Carberry rides so the outcome should be pretty straightforward. (PR Forecast 7/4)
Stakes tomorrowThe Fox’s Frolic
– Very suspicious of this horse as a betting propostion for tomorrow to be honest CS. The run last time out indicated to me that they seem keen on getting the horse handicapped, he’s more than good enough on his P2P form to take an ordinary Beginners Chase like this but when Liz Lalor (joint champion womens rider in P2P’s in Ireland with Maxine O’Sullivan) has been riding him for her father (I think) it’s front run, if he front runs tomorrow he’ll take all the beating, if not then i think all money will be blown away and it’ll be worth waiting to see him in a handicap.
Duty Dance
– Think at the prices this is the best bet of the three listed, if there’s any 7/1 around tomorrow morning I’ll be keen to take it each-way. Won her debut in a Dromahane Maiden – right part of the country to be winning in and probably a strong enough race. It appeared to be a weak bumper she ran in at Ballinrobe last time out but the fourth Esporao won easily for Gordon Elliott up at Perth on Thursday so with the experience under her belt and with a top jockey in Mikey O’Connor again in the saddle I can see her going well.
Steps To Freedom
– Looks a two horse race to me between this one and Viking Visitor. Easy winner first time out for a trainer who’s hit form in the past week or so – he had some decent form horses in behind (placer at Punchestown Festival, Maiden Point winner etc.) and he couldn’t have done it any easier than he did on debut and interesting that he’s not been sent straight over hurdles. Looks a very worthy favourite and likely worth a bet if 2/1 or so in the morning.
The Fox’s Frolic
– Very suspicious of this horse as a betting propostion for tomorrow to be honest CS. The run last time out indicated to me that they seem keen on getting the horse handicapped, he’s more than good enough on his P2P form to take an ordinary Beginners Chase like this but when Liz Lalor (joint champion womens rider in P2P’s in Ireland with Maxine O’Sullivan) has been riding him for her father (I think) it’s front run, if he front runs tomorrow he’ll take all the beating, if not then i think all money will be blown away and it’ll be worth waiting to see him in a handicap.
You make a very good point about his future handicap mark which would explain the fact that the jockey made no attempt to be near the front when they lined up last time out, I’d expected better from Liz Lalor as she surely knew the horse. Martin Ferris is a decent, and by all accounts honest, jockey although he’ll always have one black mark on his record as far as I’m concerned as the only rider to have been beaten on For Bill!
In all fairness I don’t blame him at all, the trip was too short, the course too tight and the ground probably slghtly too lively for my favourite mare.
I will have a small bet, and yes, I will know my fate after a furlong or two, if he doesn’t lead he can’t win over this distance.Duty Dance
– Think at the prices this is the best bet of the three listed, if there’s any 7/1 around tomorrow morning I’ll be keen to take it each-way. Won her debut in a Dromahane Maiden – right part of the country to be winning in and probably a strong enough race. It appeared to be a weak bumper she ran in at Ballinrobe last time out but the fourth Esporao won easily for Gordon Elliott up at Perth on Thursday so with the experience under her belt and with a top jockey in Mikey O’Connor again in the saddle I can see her going well.
I’d agree the best value may well lie here, Esporao would probably have won his last two races had he not stumbled badly at Roscommon, and had he won that night the form line would look even better
Steps To Freedom
– Looks a two horse race to me between this one and Viking Visitor. Easy winner first time out for a trainer who’s hit form in the past week or so – he had some decent form horses in behind (placer at Punchestown Festival, Maiden Point winner etc.) and he couldn’t have done it any easier than he did on debut and interesting that he’s not been sent straight over hurdles. Looks a very worthy favourite and likely worth a bet if 2/1 or so in the morning.
To me, Steps To Freedom is a penalty kick
If we leave Tus Nua out of the equasion, he’s probably the most impressive winner of a bumper this season.As they run in the reverse order to how I rate their chances I’ll start off with 3 x £1 ew Doubles and a £1 ew treble to try to get some running up money, if Fox’s was to win I could sit back and enjoy the rest of the afternoon, and if not, nothing really lost and I’ll bet again later.
……and, thanks again for your contribution Martin, much appreciated
I’m hoping AVANOS can go three better in the handicap hurdle at Market Rasen this afternoon for the in-form Phil Kirby. The Uttoxeter 0-95 race in which he made his debut for the yard last time was red hot for the grade and time of year, containing as it did three penalised last-time winners, and he emerged best of the rest whilst at the same time stepping up on previous efforts.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
I’m hoping AVANOS can go three better in the handicap hurdle at Market Rasen this afternoon for the in-form Phil Kirby. The Uttoxeter 0-95 race in which he made his debut for the yard last time was red hot for the grade and time of year, containing as it did three penalised last-time winners, and he emerged best of the rest whilst at the same time stepping up on previous efforts.
gc
You could have a point GC, I’d looked at the race earlier and came down on the side of Ruby Isabel with your selection as the likely danger. I’ve decided against a bet on either, the downside of Avano’s is that the form of race hasn’t really worked out so far and hasn’t produced a winner yet from those that have run since. Good luck though!
The Fox’s Frolic
– Very suspicious of this horse as a betting propostion for tomorrow to be honest CS. The run last time out indicated to me that they seem keen on getting the horse handicapped, he’s more than good enough on his P2P form to take an ordinary Beginners Chase like this but when Liz Lalor (joint champion womens rider in P2P’s in Ireland with Maxine O’Sullivan) has been riding him for her father (I think) it’s front run, if he front runs tomorrow he’ll take all the beating, if not then i think all money will be blown away and it’ll be worth waiting to see him in a handicap.
You make a very good point about his future handicap mark which would explain the fact that the jockey made no attempt to be near the front when they lined up last time out, I’d expected better from Liz Lalor as she surely knew the horse. Martin Ferris is a decent, and by all accounts honest, jockey although he’ll always have one black mark on his record as far as I’m concerned as the only rider to have been beaten on For Bill!
In all fairness I don’t blame him at all, the trip was too short, the course too tight and the ground probably slghtly too lively for my favourite mare.
I will have a small bet, and yes, I will know my fate after a furlong or two, if he doesn’t lead he can’t win over this distance.As you suspected, they never tried an inch with Fox’s. Before the start when they were circling round the jockey seemed to be trying to get round the back of the field but when he jumped off in second I though we were going to get a run for our cash but Martin Ferris took an immediate tug and blatently dropped him back through the field it was obvious what was going on. I wonder if the stewards would have looked into his running had he been a shorter price, especially considering his usual front running tactics and the fact that he’d probably needed every yard of the two miles. The £6 lost doesn’t matter at all but that was taking the p*ss.
Droped into a (minor) loss for the first time
Good ew opportunity on LAMBORO LAD 6.10 Worcester
but I’ll hold on to just before the off to be sure of a 1-2 place, I’ll probably have £20/£25 ew but that’ll depend on the odds, I’ll try to post stakes before the offDroped into a (minor) loss for the first time
Good ew opportunity on LAMBORO LAD 6.10 Worcester
but I’ll hold on to just before the off to be sure of a 1-2 place, I’ll probably have £20/£25 ew but that’ll depend on the odds, I’ll try to post stakes before the offLost a fiver on the EW theif’s bet -£13 20 but had a small flat/NH double up today (See Flat Thread) split the profit of £20.97 between the two disciplines leaving a loss of -£2.83 on the summer NH season
I think I’ve identified five second favourites tomorrow for an EW Canadian, these all look typical EW thief’s bets but in each race I prefer the selection to the favourite, I’ll try to find the time to give my reasoniong but for now here are the five horses……….
One the flat….
SHERWOOD FOREST 2.15 Tipperary
EDALLORA 5.15 TiperaryOver the jumps….
PURE FAITH 2.00 Stratford
ROSE STREET 3.10 Perth
STAKERS 3.55 SligoMy plans for the day are in tatters
The best value of my original five is a non runner, another race is down to seven runners, and as I hate adding to or altering a bet once I’ve made my mind up, I’ll resist the temptation to add MOONLIT GARDEN (on The Flat) to the bet but I’ll reduce the planned stakes on the others so it’s a £1.40 EW yankee with an extra £1.40 EW ACCPURE FAITH 2.00 Stratford
ROSE STREET 3.10 Perth
STAKERS 3.55 Sligo
and on the flat, EDALLORA 5.15 Tiperary
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