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It can be done Cork, one of the independents round here has been a clear, if fairly distant, second to the Tories (who get mid-high 40s) three times in a row now. It’s a similarly long way back to third.
I’m neither for nor against Independence, a lot will depend on a lot of
factors. I cant remember who it was but some pointed out a poll and said
Independence was dead in the water.Depending on who takes over and how they manage to get the voters on side,
I wouln’t go as far as say it’s dead in the water, certainly it got a bloody
nose but things can change quickly. As for the one poll, which I can’t find,
the results are pretty mixed. These are the scores on the doors since last June.
I wouln’t say a 11 – 9 lead to the no’s is “dead in the water”. What is it they say,
a week is a long time in politics.The Polls
Date(s)
conducted Polling organisation/client Sample size Should Scotland be an independent country? Lead Notes
Yes No Undecided
15 Feb 2023 Nicola Sturgeon announces her intention to resign as First Minister of Scotland
26 Jan–3 Feb 2023 Lord Ashcroft 2,105 37% 48% 12% 11% [a]
23–26 Jan 2023 YouGov/The Times 1,088 40% 46% 10% 6%
11–18 Jan 2023 FindOutNow/The National 1,094 52% 44% 3% 8%
17 Jan 2023 UK Government invokes Section 35 of the Scotland Act 1998 for the first time to block Royal Assent to the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill
10–12 Jan 2023 Survation/TrueNorth 1,002 41% 47% 11% 6%
16–21 Dec 2022 Savanta/The Scotsman 1,048 44% 46% 9% 2%
12–16 Dec 2022 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,004 49% 45% 6% 4%
6–9 Dec 2022 YouGov/The Times 1,090 47% 42% 8% 5%
1–8 Dec 2022 FindOutNow/Electoral Calculus 1,094 51% 43% 6% 8%
28 Nov–5 Dec 2022 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,065 53% 42% 4% 11%
26–27 Nov 2022 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,000 49% 45% 5% 4%
22–25 Nov 2022 YouGov/Scottish Election Study 1,210 46% 45% 9% 1%
23 Nov 2022 Supreme Court rules the Scottish Parliament requires consent of the UK Government to legislate a second independence referendum
25 Oct 2022 Rishi Sunak becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
20 Oct 2022 Liz Truss announces her intention to resign as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
13–19 Oct 2022 Ipsos MORI 2,086 50% 43% 4% 7%
7–10 Oct 2022 Panelbase/Alba Party 1,018 46% 49% 5% 3%
5–7 Oct 2022 Panelbase/Business for Scotland 1,017 47% 47% 6% Tied
30 Sep–4 Oct 2022 YouGov/The Times 1,067 43% 45% 7% 2%
30 Sep–4 Oct 2022 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,029 45% 46% 8% 1%
14–16 Sep 2022 Deltapoll/Sun in Scotland 659 42% 47% 7% 5% [c]
8 Sep 2022 Elizabeth II dies and is succeeded by her son, Charles III
6 Sep 2022 Liz Truss becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
17–19 Aug 2022 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,133 46% 48% 6% 2%
7 July 2022 Boris Johnson announces his intention to resign as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
29 Jun–1 Jul 2022 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,010 48% 47% 5% 1%
29–30 Jun 2022 Techne UK 501 39% 45% 15% 6% [d]
28 Jun 2022 Nicola Sturgeon announces her intention to hold an independence referendum on 19 October 2023
23–28 Jun 2022 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,029 44% 46% 10% 2%I find it difficult to believe that whoever becomes SNP Leader will succeed where heavyweight figures like Salmond and Sturgeon failed.
How would they secure independence? The Supreme Court has already ruled how the referendum is a reserved power for Westminster. Any attempt by the SNP to hold a referendum would be illegal and all the pro-Union parties would boycott it.
I do not see in what circumstances either a Labour or Conservative government would agree to another referendum.
Sturgeon’s idea of making the next General Election a de facto referendum is unpopular, even with her own party. A General Election is about a range of national and local issues and a mechanism to choose the constituency MP. It cannot be distilled down to one issue.
Sturgeon once said she would not try to force another referendum until there was something like 60% in favour of independence. None of the figures quoted above come close.
Even if support was just over 50%, that margin could easily disappear when the independence cause comes under intense scrutiny. And a second referendum loss would be catastrophic. The SNP cannot keep asking for independence polls until it gets the answer it wants.
I wonder what the Emperor Hadrian would have made of it all?
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"The SNP are like the drunk hassling the pretty lassie for a winch …. Eventually you have to except no
The SNP are like the drunk hassling the pretty lassie for a winch …. Eventually you have to except no
—————————————————Are we still talking about independence ??
Yes , if you can’t get a majority wanting independence after all that’s happened after the last few years then your never going to get it , more Scots want a SNP government but within the UK , maybe it’s time the SNP except this
If Labour win the next election (still a big If), independence might be shelved for a few years, as they seem to be less disliked than the tories. But the democratic deficit will always be a problem; Scotland ruled by an unrepresentative Westminster. How they proceed I’ve no idea, neither Labour nor tories will consent to another referendum, just as they won’t consent to PR elections.
As for the economic argument, Ireland is roughly equivalent in size to Scotland, and now has a higher standard of living than the UK, and that’s without North Sea oil. Scotland is full of bright industrious people and will surely be able to make a success of it.
Of course, if not for Brexit, independence would be truly dead and buried.“they won’t consent to PR elections”
It would probably take a Labour-led coalition government which was looking like it might struggle to form another one at the Election after that to give electoral reform the impetus it needs.
Most of my adult life has been spent living under Tory governments which commanded less than 50% of the popular vote and all of it has been spent under Tories and Labour doing this.
PR leads to weak government?
Better weak than inept and/or corrupt.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"FPTP is an absolutely ludicrous system. The SNP, to keep it on topic, won 48 seats from 1.2m votes. Lib Dems got three times the votes and 11 seats. The Greens got two thirds of the vote that the SNP did and get one!
It always suits the ruling party too much to ever be changed so I’d agree with Ian’s assessment about a slightly shaky Labour led coalition being needed which I don’t think is totally out of the question.
I can’t give a definitive answer as to how anothr election
would be allowed, something would have to force the hand of
the Scots to take to the streets, the numbers in the polls
would clearly need to be much higher than they are now.
Could something cause that? Unlikely I would say, but a
lot of people rule it out as a non starter. Never say never.
There’s nothing more dangerous than a race that feels downtrodden.
The Scots have been there before.“There’s nothing more dangerous than a race that feels downtrodden ” , id say more and more Scots each day are getting frustrated my an ineffectual governing party , the next leader is going to have a difficult job , let’s be honest the SNP majority can only go one way ….. and it ain’t up
Thanks, Wilts – sounds like “game on!” up there!
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"The independence game has realistically been up (in the short/medium term) for a little while now but the departure of Sturgeon is a symbolic moment. Those figures suggest that many SNP voters would be happy to lend their support to Labour next time for the greater good of getting the Tories out.
There was a certain sense of glee at her resignation from sections of those on the right. Be careful what you wish for?
“There’s nothing more dangerous than a race that feels downtrodden ” , id say more and more Scots each day are getting frustrated my an ineffectual governing party , the next leader is going to have a difficult job , let’s be honest the SNP majority can only go one way ….. and it ain’t up
—————————————————————That’s a big statement to make. I’m not saying you’re wrong but if there is one thing
I do know it’s that politics can change in a very short time. People have been saying
for years that the SNP’s goose will be cooked, I don’t think they’ve even plucked the
feathers yet.
——————————————————————–
Wilts – ”Latest YouGov for Scotland:
SNP 29%
Labour 27%SNP was 45% at last GE 2019
——————————————————————Thanks Wilts
Would you have the URL for that, I can’t seem to find it. The only one
I can find (YouGov) is this about 3 weeks ago which showed the poll at
26 January was 42% to the SNP and 29% to labour. I dare say we will get
another update at the end of February…………Scotland Trackers
SNP Lab Con Lib Dem Other
% % % % %
2023
January 23-26** 42 29 15 6 2
2022
December 6-9** 43 29 14 6 1
September 30 – October 4** 45 31 12 7 1___________________________________________________________________________________________
There’s a saying in golf, “beware the injured golfer”. SNP may be injured
but anyone who thinks they are hung out with the washing doesn’t live in
Scotland or are dyed in the wool poorly represented Labour and Tory voters.The Scots should get independence if they want it simply by default of the high risk English parliament’s past irrational actions in the cess pool of Westminster. If they end up in rags they can always blame the instigators. Good luck to a united Ireland too as natural collateral of a blind gamble that left Brittania t*ts up.
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