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I think a lot of SNP voters will consider switching to Labour at the next General Election. They know independence is dead in the water. If they do not want the Conservatives in power in Westminster, they may figure they are better off voting Labour to help it to get a clear majority. Something Labour may struggle to get if it is only relying on England and Wales.
“It obviously was on her mind but until she was going to say she had decided to stand down, she would never indicate she was thinking of going.”
Right, so she has suddenly decided she is tired and worn out and wants to spend more time with her family just at the moment the police decide to launch a fraud investigation which might implicate her and her husband.
Call me cynical…
Labour 1.21 from 1.22 for Most Seats tonight – it’s a tiny shift, but it can only be for one reason.
The market concurs with CAS’s (and my) analysis.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Cork, you’re Cynical. You’re also right though, I think quite a few
will thinkof switching to labour just to keep the tories out. I actually
said myself, somewhere else else in this forum, that if I thought the
only way of keepeing the tories out was voting labour I would consider it.
Problem is, I don’t think enough of the Nats will desert them. I’ll give
you they didn’t get everything, or maybe several things right, but they
didn’t make the biggest mistake poilitically, in my lifetime, by pulling
out of the EU and burning so many treaties from lack of free movement, the
internal market, freedom, security. Some see the Eu as a common Political
Project rather than a free trade area or common market. For what?, to secure
our shores?, how’s that going then.If I thought the SNP could get us back into the common market, they would get
my vote and I think there will be sufficient numbers to see the SNP as the
dominent party in Scotland.David Cameron was an idiot, taking it for granted that there was no way we
would leave, and then jumped ship when we did. Boris is an engaging chap,
but a complete liar, and hoodwinked many down south. If I hear one more person
spout “I knew what I was voting for” I’ll spit. This is one of the most complex
moves made by a government and 3 years later we are still working on it.Everyone has their opinion, but I rather think if the clock was turned back
3 years, knowing what we know now, the result would be an overwhelming vote
to stay. Certain politicians keep pointing out the advantages of “taking back
control”. They are right, if you work for MI5 or MI6. The rights of the individual
will not be high up on their agenda.If only the Westminster government was held to the same standards as the Scottish one…
If Scotland is such an awful place full of alcoholic drug addicts with its public services crumbling then why are English people so bothered about it remaining part of the UK? Surely we’d be better off without them wouldn’t we?
Had to laugh at that comment about Sturgeon being a ‘headline grabber’ straight after mentioning Johnson.
“David Cameron was an idiot, taking it for granted that there was no way we would leave, and then jumped ship when we did.”
I certainly agree with that. It was irresponsible and dishonest of Cameron to hold the Brexit referendum when he had no intention of honouring the result and made no preparation for what would happen if Leave won.
But doesn’t Brexit actually make it more difficult for the SNP now? Back in 2014 and the independence referendum, Scotland would have left a UK that was still in the EU. Assuming an independent Scotland would have been allowed to rejoin, it would have had another EU state on its border. There would have been free movement of people and seamless trade.
Now if Scotland became independent and joined the EU, it would have no choice but to have a hard border with a non EU state. It would make trading with its largest market much more difficult. There is also the question of currency. It is highly doubtful the EU would allow Scotland to keep the currency of a non EU state.
Sturgeon’s stated policy of turning the next Westminster election into a de facto second independence referendum is approved by only 20% of voters and not popular within her own party. It is meant to be discussed at a conference next month. There had to be a possibility she would have been defeated and her position made untenable.
It looks to me like she has jumped before that happens.
I want countries around the world to be uniting, not fragmenting.
I didn’t want the UK to leave the EU (imperfect though it was and is) and I don’t want the UK broken up.
One democratically-elected World government/economy/currency has to be the ultimate future goal for mankind – it would solve so many of the world’s issues.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"‘I want countries around the world to be uniting, not fragmenting.’
Absolutely and I am pro both Unions. Cutting yourself off from your closest neighbours makes no sense whatsoever, be that the UK from the EU or Scotland from the UK. You’ll be forever within their sphere of influence but with absolutely no say in their affairs whatsoever.
Perhaps that helps explain a jump in support for Unionism, they’ve seen the dreadful effects of Brexit on the UK and don’t want to be cut even further adrift. Yes, an independent Scotland could join the EU but there are many, many hurdles to jump first. That said, in 2014 remaining part of the UK was on the assumption that it would remain in the EU. Had you told them in 2014 that they’d be leaving anyway, maybe more would would have voted for independence, we’ll never know.
“One democratically-elected World government/economy/currency has to be the ultimate future goal for mankind – it would solve so many of the world’s issues.”
It is the goal of the likes of the Davos set. The World Economic Forum makes no attempt to conceal it.
Not all of us are convinced it would solve the world’s issues. Despite its problems, the democratic nation state is the best form of government ever devised.
Giving power to just one small group of people in the whole world does not strike me as a good idea and has sinister connotations. Who really believes any kind of democratic accountability would survive? Every dictator in history would have loved it.
If certain people are to be believed then the Davos mob and their pals already have some world leaders under their spell.
We should look outward rather than inward but a single government creates at least as many problems as it solves.
One universal currency, complete freedom of movement, an end to insularity and to tribalism as people are encouraged to migrate and travel to where the economic development and action was.
No more propping up communities on benefits whose local businesses are long dead – pit villages, for example.
No so much get on your bike as get on the plane.
Too many people – and the UK is especially bad for this – think they have a divine right to a lifelong career on their doorstep.
I think it would lead to a smoother-running global economy, less red tape, more global flexibility and a more rounded, bohemian, cosmopolitan human race generally.
I’ve thought this for many years – I don’t need the World Economic Forum to tell me.
In the same way as we have local government, I’m sure global “regional” nation state governments would continue to exist.
And I don’t see how it would be any easier to abuse by dictators than current individual nation states are.
Maybe we need an alien invasion to focus minds on how utterly absurd all the historic territorial/political/religious feuding really is!
An unsuccessful one, obviously!
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Richard says:
“ Cutting yourself off from your closest neighbours makes no sense whatsoever, be that the UK from the EU or Scotland from the UK. You’ll be forever within their sphere of influence but with absolutely no say in their affairs whatsoever”.Really? Ask Cameron when he went to their table to ask for reform. Taken from ITV news November 2015
“ In his speech, Mr Cameron is expected to say he has “every confidence” of reaching an agreement which works for Britain and other EU members.
But he will warn: “If we can’t reach such an agreement, and if Britain’s concerns were to be met with a deaf ear, which I do not believe will happen, then we will have to think again about whether this European Union is right for us. As I have said before – I rule nothing out.”Richard says:
“ Perhaps that helps explain a jump in support for Unionism, they’ve seen the dreadful effects of Brexit on the UK and don’t want to be cut even further adrift”.Really? Yes we left 3 years ago. But what have we faced in between? Seven weeks after we left we and the world shutdown. Then as we emerged from covid in early 2022 Putin decided to invade Ukraine. To me Brexit has been put on hold and even before 2 major world changing events it was never going produce results in the short term, and that is very naive to think a switch would be flicked and things would change.
In fact the only thing that was supposed to change immediately the day we voted to leave was a 10-15% drop in house prices. What happened to that, no one has explained on the remainer side what went wrong then. I would have welcomed the drop.But, looking back we can argue and argue and both sides would never agree still, it’s futile.
On the present, what we can agree on is how bad the govt are, the cons aren’t a Brexit party, the same as labour, well the ones who make the final decisions aren’t.
Many feel politically homeless. They don’t trust the cons, they are not delivering and labour would not have done any better.
If there was a GE now we know Labour would win quite comfortably, the polls can’t be that far out.
But, this probable peak for them may have come too early, the only way is down and as they become more vocal they too will fall favour to many voters.
Reform, who you have labelled far right Richard with Tice, just like certain MSM are calling the right either hard or far right even more at present are still too small to challenge.
All I would say so far out and with so much to play out still god knows how the GE will pan out.
I think it will be Brexit election still as many areas of Brexit still would not have been sorted out or gone through. The cons have been very reluctant, or at least the ones with powers have been.And I would also say watch out for Lee Anderson, who could just turn it around for the cons if his position could be elevated further.
“labour would not have done any better”
It is the last refuge of any failing government to claim the Opposition couldn’t have done any better.
They couldn’t have done much worse.
As for Lee Anderson, be careful what you wish for – most non-Tories would be holding parties were he even in charge.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"To me Brexit has been put on hold and even before 2 major world changing events it was never going produce results in the short term, and that is very naive to think a switch would be flicked and things would change.
————————————————————–Well they better get their skates on GSP, in a recent Bloomsberg Report we are losing
£100 Billion a year, Business investment is weaker and labour shortages more acute.‘But, looking back we can argue and argue and both sides would never agree still, it’s futile.’
I concur.
‘But, this probable peak for them may have come too early, the only way is down and as they become more vocal they too will fall favour to many voters.’
Polling acts as message to the Tories, sort yourselves out or get wiped out. They are showing little sign of sorting themselves out. I gave Sunak too much credit, he’s been awful. I agree with other comments that the fall of Sturgeon will help Labour north of the border, Scottish voters on the whole are more anti-Tory than elsewhere and want to see them gone too.
As for Anderson, he plays well in his echo chambers where he is seen as the voice of reason and speaking for the ‘silent majority’ but in the real world people want to see more from their MP than ridiculous statements about the death penalty and boasting about ‘winding up lefties’ on Twitter. I would not be surprised to see his constituents send him to the dole office after the next election.
I would add that there are numerous examples of people who don’t stand up to scrutiny outside their echo chamber, both left and right, it’s not exclusive to him by any means.
I think Anderson is there to keep the Conservative grass roots happy, rather like John Prescott did for the Labour core vote during the Blair years. A lot of the Conservative Party members do not particularly like Sunak, believing he stabbed both Johnson and Truss in the back. Anderson looks like he had been appointed to keep them on side.
His constituency – Ashfield, in Nottinghamshire – was quite interesting at the last General Election. After being a Labour seat since its creation (apart from two years in the late 1970s when the Conservatives won a by-election), the Conservatives won a three way contest where a local independent candidate finished in a strong second place.
I don’t know that much about the constituency but I would be surprised if an independent candidate made a similarly strong showing next time. It looks to me like whichever of the two main parties wins most of those independent voters will take the seat.
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