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I cannot understand the gamble on Task Force. The positives are that it was a season’s best last time and Beckett’s in good form. But other than that: He’s going up in trip and even last time out in a strongly run mile he didn’t settle fully. Been held up in all of his races since his debut over 6f… And in this race there seems to be very little pace – likely to be run at a slow pace. So Task Force will in all probability need to settle in a slowly run race over further than he’s been before… And come from a disadvantaged position the way the race is likely to be run.
See The Fire improved in the Group 1 Nassau over 10f last time. But for speed reasons (pace and the fact she’s coming back in trip – by one of the best middle distance influences Sea The Stars out of International winner Arabian Queen… I wanted to be against See The Fire here. She’s been midfield in almost all her races this season so may not be able to adapt if a slower run race over shorter. However, the drift has made her a worthy saver.
From what I have seen, the most likely pace setter / horse to run prominently – is the consistent Phantom Flight. So he could get the run of the race… And as Devonian says, stable are in good form. There’s probably better horses in this race but will they be able to show it?
Flight Plan used to be a front runner last season, but so far this term connections seem adamant he’s to be held up. If he were to revert he could go well at a big price.
Alyanaabi made the running last time out, but either doing so did not suit him or didn’t stay the 10f… And he was beaten at the 9f pole. This is almost 9. Tracked pace / City Of Troy when a good second in the Dewhurst. Stable are in good form and I expect a better run. However, even at his best still has a few pounds to find here. Has Crowley chosen right?
Same owner’s Enfjaar takes a step up in grade, but carried 9-12 in the Chesterfield Cup and should have won. Coming from a lot further back in the field than the other principals in a slowish run big handicap. Jack Mitchell had won his two previous races and that may well be the reason he keeps the ride here. On both occasions tracking the pace, so a good chance he races more prominently today.
Haunted Dream chased home Israr in the Wolferton and came back to form to win a class 2 last time. Has a chance but seems to have found his level. imo Less likely tio improve than some of his rivals.
Checkandchallenge wouldn’t be good enough to win this at his best and hasn’t shown that in a while. Connections reaching for the first time cheek pieces.
One at a bigger price I like is Royal Dubai. Possibly flattered to get to within a length of Quddwah in a slowly run Group 2 Summer Mile. But on the face of it was at a positional disadvantage, so did well to reach 4th. Before that was again at a positional disadvantage (not that it made any difference to the result) when runner-up to Royal Scotsman at Epsom. 16/1 imo underestimates his chance.
I’ve backed Enfjaar 9/2 , Phantom Flight 8/1 and Royal Dubai 16/1, with a saver on See The Fire 7/2… With a small LAY on Task Force @ 7/2.
Value Is EverythingSee The Fire is better than the distances suggest. Did exceptionally well to come from the back in a slowly run race.
Value Is Everything
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